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And just to be clear Roche, TF, Abbott all have PCR antigen tests also - but none of them are as quick or as accurate as NCYT's. NCYT's is the best antigen test currently on the market - and just wait till the new exsig D-PCR test is launched this week by NCYT - it's even faster, even cheaper to manufacture, removes lab bottlenecks, massively reduces reagents - it moves NCYT's antigen test onto another level.
Shareseeker - yes it is an antigen test. ODX is antibody - Roche new one is an invasive antibody test. Antibody and antigen tests are both needed in their millions, they are not competitive to each other as both types of tests are badly needed.
Just to add to that there is still good hope for ODX as Roche's test requires an intravenous blood draw to determine the presence of antibodies including immunoglobulin G (IgG), which remains longer in the human body, suggesting possible immunity. So if ODX can get the home testing out they can still win. All I'm trying to illustrate is that NCYT have already proven what they have and have got the growing sales to back it up - these over AIM covid plays are coming upto their toughest tests which they must pass, NCYT have already passed with flying colours.
As I've said before its not NCYT that needs to worry about competition its the other aim shares producing covid tests that need to worry about competition with the big boys - the likes of AVCT, ODX, and GDR. NCYT have proved they can compete and flourish as their PCR test was first and is the best in the business. ODX now have to prove themselves as Roche have just developed an antibody test that has a specificity rate of about 99.8% and sensitivity rate of 100%. The next NCYT is still currently NCYT.
The thing is that people are missing is that health professionals are being advised to be checked once a week to see if they currently have cv19 - in the UK alone that is 800,000 people. People will be tested numerous times with antigen tests.
VanV - Spot on - I believe NCYT and Roche have the antigen market tied up in the UK. Antibody test, I think mologic/odx will be on the governments plans for that. PHE have already committed to NCYT with 6 months of orders, then there is NCYT new d-pcr test with AZ that will also be another large order for the UK - there is a real danger that in the UK AVCT will be a footnote, and left with what's left. Are the government really going to go out and place a huge order for them when they have already ordered NCYT tests. As the rest of the world, reputation is everything, AVCT has got to get WHO approval, US FDA approval etc etc They could do very well, but they really have to get their skates on now as I expect more long contract wins for NCYT from the likes of France etc in the coming days/weeks.
Rtest - I've been banging on about this for ages, mostly on deaf ears. First mover, reputation is everything in this. Only 4 tests are WHO approved - that is the golden ticket - NCYT are one of them. They have been building the reputation for months now, finally being endorsed by the health secretary. This was a hard slog, done by brilliant work by those at NCYT. They fast tracked their approvals, and haven't sat on their laurels, they've ramped and ramped up production and also come out with a new d-pcr test - this is the one that will be announced I believe on Monday as it ties in with their Astra Zeneca work. Because of this reputation and growth they are able to sell to 100 countries. I like AVCT I really do, its got great potential, but its mcap is on a near par with NCYT's which to me is frankly ridiculous. They don't have a finished product, don't have production, don't have regulation approvals. NCYT now are one of the go to companies for testing - by the time AVCT get all that lined up, they will then have to convince countries that there test is worth it, its still a long road ahead for them, not saying they won't get there, but they are miles behind NCYT, yet their marketcap isn't. Something will give one way or the other.
Still only 4 WHO approved tests out of the many out there.
Abbott, Roche, Perkin Elmer - all Multibillion £ mcap companies
and
NCYT's primerdesign.
If you want to sell to the world you need to be on that list, its really as simple as that. The WHO are very choosy who gets on that list. I await to see ODX, AVCT, GDR on that list. Otherwise their markets are limited.Now also bear in mind ThermoFirsher aren't on that list either - and I bet they'd love to be - so it bears even more fuel to the fire with previous research of a TF link with NCYT.
MrSpeculator - I agree. Hunches often pay off in the short term, research pays off in the long term. Now I'm not dissing AVCT - I really think the POC testing is a great way forward. All 3 ODX, AVCT, and NCYT I see great futures for and further price rises. GDR I must admit I don't really know enough to comment on. The only thing that scares me a little for AVCT right now is the marketcap - its very high for something without a product - they will have one of that I have no doubt otherwise Cytiva wouldn't be involved. But I would expect a big retrace at some point as the same as that happened with NCYT from 2.20p - 60p, and from 5.2 - 2.7. These high sentiment shares can swing wildly if that sentiment dips which it invariably does as fud is spread.
Mr Speculator - considering you were in NCYT it doesn't look like you did you're research, and is often missed by many - NCYT test takes 90 minutes at present - yep so you are right there - however that is not for one test. It can be used on Roches Light Cycler Instrument which have two wells versions - 96 well, and 384 well. So that equates to 96 tests for example in 90 minutes. Which in effect is a higher throughput that AVCT. Additionally the new d-pcr test coming in May will have even higher throughput and less prep time. Previous primerdesign PCR margins were at 80%, the new d-pcr will offer greater margins. No one knows AVCT's margins, its accuracy, its production capacity. It still has to get regulated, it still has to set up distribution all over the world. These things take time. AVCT does offer great promise and there is room for that in the space too. But don't underestimate NCYT too quickly - it was first to market - that means a heck of a lot, so in effect has a near 3 month head start on others. It has gained a worldwide reputation - that takes time, effort and a great product. These things aren't valued by the markets but they sure as hell effect sales etc.
Brief rough summary of where things are at with the AIM cv19 test plays.
NCYT
Sales of £80m in last month.
6 month contract with PHE
Collaboration with GSK, Astra & Cambridge
Production currently at 4m test per month (1m per week) to ramp up to 8m test per month.
Current PCR test 100% accurate – test time 90 mins for 96 tests (over 1 test per minute)
New D-PCR test due – faster run times, less reagents needed, higher margins
Selling to over 100 countries
Gold standard PCR test
WHO, EU-FDA, CE approvals all in place
ODX
Deal with Mologic to manufacture 46k tests per day (322k per week). This is broadly equivalent to yourgene producing for NCYT.
Mologic test looks to be 98% accurate
Mologic Test lab based – not sure of test time
Producing in RTC consortium to produce their own antibody test – not yet at design freeze stage yet
Neither product yet selling
CE approval for Mologic test
AVCT
Affirmer tech to use saliva test for covid19
Deal with Cytiva for POC tests – one test per person take minutes to complete
Deal with Adeptrix to use bams platform to allow hundreds of samples per day per machine.
No accuracy yet confirmed
No production yet confirmed
No sales yet confirmed.
No approvals yet in place.
All these tests differ in their approaches and all offer valuable ways to test cv19. Just trying to summarise the differences at present - I firmly believe there's plenty of scope for many tests out there. NCYT haven't been impacted in sales by the big boys like Roche, Abbott etc. ODX will face competition from the likes of these big boys for their antibody test - AVCT offer something slightly different but are further behind.
So much to come, and some of it next week. Here are some of the possibilities
-Launch of Cambridge Initiative with GSK/Astra - going into to production
-Launch of new D-PCR tests
-New long term contract with France
-Update on US OEM
-Update on sales to US.
That's just for starters. Selling to over 100+ countries. No other covid testing company on AIM is even selling yet, never mind to over 100 countries, and their mcap's are approaching NCYT's. Think about that.
KingKitega - I've noticed you've not tried to apply that rationale to your other investment AVCT - which you seem to think is fair value on a similar marketcap now to NCYT yet with no sales...Amazing double standards. Or have you sold NCYT and hold AVCT perchance :)
New d-pcr test will be launched next week I'd imagine also - this will be at new ATH's soon enough. Patience - like codey correctly stated its a covid merry go round at the moment - things will dip in and out of being hot. NCYT have the sales to back it up and I expect this to rise significantly next week.
You think of all the covid plays getting hyped right now - ODX, AVCT, GDR, HEMO, TILS, CTEA, SYM, TERN, etc etc. All hyped to be bigger better plays. If you get in early you can make big money, however not one, not one of them have any sales yet, further more not one have their product for sale on the market yet. All being proved up. NCYT do have a product, are competing well with the big boys like Abbott, TF and Roche, and have huge ever increasing sales. NCYT is still the daddy of AIM plays, the others are currently riding on the coat tails of NCYT's success.
Link to Astra Ceo talking about the cambridge unit and using PrimerDesign.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-04-29/astrazeneca-ceo-on-covid-19-testing-dividend-video
Simply staggering - above my wildest expectations. This company will be worth £1 billion + easily in the coming weeks/months. Its not just the sales, the manufacturing increase to beyond 8m per month if needed, not the fact they are selling to over 100 countries, or the fact that the new d-pcr test will be available in early May which allows cheaper faster tests - its the combination of all that in one RNS that has shown this company evolve so quickly to fight this pandemic. Truly breathtaking.