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Wolfie - I'm warning caution that is all - diagnostics can get a CE mark without being highly accurate - there are many already out there - but for a government to put its weight behind it they will want it around 98% sensitivity and specificity. Below that and the retail market is available, but the government won't be buying and pushing kits with tests accuracy below that.
Captn - be very careful with AVCT - the latest distribution deal was for home use not medical - why? Read between the lines. I would have grave reservations about its specificity (accuracy) does not pass medical grade diagnostic standards. Hence the boohoo guy being touted as your distributor - not renowned medical distributors like the 70+ NCYT have. Something very smelly going on other there.
That AVCT news just highlights what a well run company NCYT is. Don't really wish to go on about AVCT and hope they do really well, but they are still miles behind NCYT. That is their first distributor signed with 2 shareholders who took part in their recent placing and have set up a distribution company for exclusive rights, there first foray into medical supply chain. NCYT has over 70+ respected medical distributors, that are based all over the world, and have been doing this gig for years. It just highlights NCYTs have already built all the right buidling blocks to distribute globally and miles ahead compared to its peers on AIM. I know its nothing new to those who've researched, but its just worth reminding investors what a well run company this is.
Just reading a report by Find - who do the diagnostic analysis for the WHO - for LMIC countries (low/middle income) they want to set up an alliance with the goal to provide 1 Billion, yep 1 Billion tests for them over the next 12 months. Now just remember how few tests are WHO approved - and primerdesign is one. Is this Egypt purchase with the UK gov flouting it the first signs of this alliance.
https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/investment/
When people are expecting AVCT to get to £2 without a test in production and to reach a marketcap above what NCYT ever got is the time to be fearful. No product on market, no product sold. The exact opposite is happening at NCYT loads of comments saying 2.70 incoming. Key to investing is going against the herd. Let the herd ride you up, let the herd ride you down. When everyone is saying they are going up massively that is often the top , emotion and believing you've found that next big thing is intoxicating. Now and again holding long time works, there are exceptions to the rule, but knowing where and what they are is a very rare thing. when everyone is saying you will go down when fundamentals are on your side its likely you'll go up. Its counter intuitive, but that's how markets work. Buy into hope and sentiment when its low, not when its high as long as the fundamentals back it up. And boy does NCYT back it up
Seadoc - thank god you were never my doctor. I pity the fools who were. Taught what you were taught but never to think out of the box. You sound more deluded by each post you make. Basic rational sense seems to have been lost. Seadoc - I think you need to go see a doctor. :)
PL75 I've just seen your post on the AVCT board, I wouldn't post there, as I wouldn't want to deramp. But you think at 80% accuracy would be fantastic. Let me tell you know, if AVCT turns out 80% accurate its over.. Diagnostics generally want over 98% accuracy. Anything less in ****ing in the wind. To explain let me give you an example, a flight on an Airbus holds over 800 passengers, at an 80% accuracy that's potential over 160 people getting on that plane with covid19 and spreading it amongst the rest. Its fecking useless. It AVCT gets 90% its useless. As a POC test its got to be 95% above. At 95% it will be used and do well, but to even threaten NCYT its got to be 98% plus I would say. The last POC affirmer test got to 70%. Think don't buy into hype.
PL75 - Unfortunately you have been taken in by the AVCT hype. There is a reason that PCR is the most recognised and used by science, its not because its old, its because its proven. New science like AVCT have with affirmers may be a new frontier, but with that comes huge risks. AVCT's mcap is currently nearly 100m more than NCYT. Its basically gambling over on AVCT that they might, just might have come up with the golden carrot that replaces PCR. PCR can measure load of virus at much smaller magnitudes, i.e they can find easier if you have the virus or not without false negatives. That effects the sensitivity and specificity accuracy. Until AVCT prove that its just fugazi, wishful thinking. . Its a gamble. Nothing proven, nothing regulated, nothing sold. Its a bubble for AVCT. Its currently valued 100m over NCYT - on basically nothing but fervent hope. People go on about AVCT has much more about it than Covid - what was it valued before Covid and there planned poc test. That's the truth. NCYT is valued on what is has delivered. If AVCT delivers well done and I wish them well ,but I'm rather sick of AVCT investors coming on here saying they've got something better but at this point in time they have nothing. AIM CEO promises the world and I know how often that story ends unfortunately.
Wbernard - excellent post. Sums it up nicely why PCR is the used the world over and why various other POC tests have failed. Now a portable PCR unit for POC tests could be the solution - now who has one of them.
Troublesome - the clinical validation will be conducting and validating the test to confirm specificity and sensitivity. This will be done on a sample size often around 100 samples. As to 2 formats, I just see that as meeting lab demands, so that it can be used more widely to fit with their differing lab's diagnostic capabilities.
Careful Captn - AVCT had great news today and has amazing potential, but in AIM fly to close to the sun and suddenly with one little delay in news all that high sentiment can change, especially when you haven't sold anything to back up a meteoric rise. Things can come tumbling down very fast and you needn't look any further than here as an example despite selling 100m in rev so far.
Trotters - yes they can be stored for a time, but at the moment as quick as they produce them they are flying off the shelves, they can't keep up with demand, hence the upgrades from 250k a month - 2m -4m -8- and now to 10m. There is currently no hope of stockpiling as everyone they produce they are currently selling.
Oh is Seadoc back, the old local gp who still adminsters leaches for pain. He is short, and placed his money on AVCT so that's why he's always disparaging NCYT. AVCT will have that time when the derampers flood their bb, we've had it since 45p. They come in waves, any sign of weakness they spout up the usual rubbish, and NCYT keeps delivering and they disappear for a week or two and try again at a higher sp. The facts as gggg said are relatively simple, this has the contracts, has the reputation, has the accuracy, the approvals, those are some big stumbling blocks for competitors. Also NCYT is now threatening a little of AVCT's market with exsig being POC - now I believe there's room for both, but for some muppets to say this is overvalued compared to AVCT are just blowing smoke up their own gratuitous arses. AVCT has no sales, no product yet, no confirmed accuracy, no reputation, no world wide distributors. Not saying AVCT wont make it but at the moment they are living on hope and delirium that there test will meet the mark. High risk poker game at a market cap equal to a company selling close to 100m rev per month at over 50% profit margins.
https://twitter.com/Cobra_Resources/status/1260875017149087745
Quickdraw - yep and that's not taking into account the new exsig product which many are overlooking.
Exsig is cheaper to manufacture (less reagents), avoids bottlenecks in production (less reagents), will have higher margins and allow testing to be ramped up massively. Those 10m tests per month will be much higher when exsig is up and running. Not to mention Exsig will allow POC testing which is huge in itself.
People need to look forward not back. NCYT are now established as one of the leading diagnostic companies in the world in the fight against COVID19, reputation is everything. They have shown that they don't just sit on their laurels but adapt and produce new tests that are faster, cheaper and more efficient. They won't stop there with the money they have they will be able to develop new products, not just COVID but amongst their whole suit. £1b mcap company for starters here in the making.
More than 10m tests a month, order book strong, to continue into 2012.
Exsig to come in two variants 1/ Lab testing to massively increase testing capacity 2/will include a mobile covid test - Point of care test to expand reach and increase revenue further.
Bloody impressive