Member Info for wolfhound

have a look at the graph since April - where it was at 435 before dropping to about 365p, then rose again to 415p before falling back and hitting support level at around 365p ( all EOD prices) - it has just bounced off that same support level - looks to be forming a "W" and if that continues then expect us to hit new highs soon - so keep an eye on the charts Techni - if you are still out there would be great to get your thoughts ?

GS - whilst PAYS has undoubtedly been caught up in the general "Risk Off Brexit" of the market I am not so sure that will continue. As with all things there is a bit of a rush to the door as people are unaware - but pretty quick people get educated and realise that not all stocks are the same and as is the case with PAYS a Brexit has no material impact as it is not a uk domestic business - in fact if you are UK based it is the ideal stock to own as you will automatically benefit if there is a weakness in GBP. Whilst that analogy might be beyond most pi's understanding it will not be lost on the institutions who will be looking for a natural hedge like PAYS - so I expect them to step into any perceived weakness as Brexit gets near to final vote

Melf from another board made a great point I would like to share here - it is from recent research from Edison: Reality check........ Given that we are in bargain territory I thought it was worth posting Edison's April note again. http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/paysafe-group2/preview/# Since the note was issued, the company have advised that revenue and EBITDA for 2016 will be ahead of expectations at $950M-$970M and $270-$276 respectively. On this basis it's probably safe to assume that the 2017 figures will be revised up and if there was no further M&A activity, the company is likely to be virtually debt free by the end of 2017. The likelihood is that there will be more earning enhancing acquisitions before then. Plus the immense potential from US online poker/gambling. This company is a cash machine and I am a very happy long term holder particularly as I've been able to top up in 360s recently. Any guesses what the sp will be on 31.12.17? GLA my view is that SP will be 3 fold higher in 18 months assuming on-line poker is approved in the 4 US States - NY/Cal/Penn/Mich - you won't earn that sitting in cash

@smart_inv ; I doubt it - PAYS is not a UK domestic business - a fact that the general Brexit sell off has ignored although I suspect the MM and their buddies are making a killing off some poorly researched pi's who sell rather than hold AS for Brexit - people go with the Devil they know - and the vast majority of the population do not remember a time before EU - and those that can will probably tell it wasn't that great - living standards have come along way since 1973 !! So EU-IN might be the new going out come the 23rd :)

@smart_inv - will require a bit of patience but all will come good - volumes have been quite light - so Brexit effect has really been to keep buyers on the side line until they are ready to pounce and MM pushing down price to see where buyers will nibble - interestingly PAYS is forming a very nice "W" pattern with support level around the 360p mark suggesting to me that previous support levels at this level are being held - if so then I expect SP to climb back up v quickly on any news i.e. US market on Thursday Hold !! GLA

@GS - indeed - Brexit seems to have captured headlines again and keeping buyers on the sideline - that said good news later in the week re California could change all that - I see there is some M&A activity announced this evening with the two largest Fantasy Sports players in merger talks - so watch this space GLA

very strategic announcement of support just days ahead of the vote on the 16th http://www.onlinepokerreport.com/21030/online-poker-california-support/ this baby could really fly !! GLA

HI GS - Not likely to be material one way or another - most of PAYS business is conducted in US and Asia and mainland Europe - very little in UK despite GBP being the reporting currency - in fact given the global nature then PAYS is a perfect stock for GBP based investors who want global exposure. There is a natural hedge for UK investors - if GBP depreciates and profits are earned in other base currencies then overall profits will rise once translated into GBP

....and more good news http://www.pokernewsreport.com/ny-senate-finance-committee-advances-poker-bill-20787 expect a leg up in sp GLA

courtesy of user EH9 on another board - California may just be getting serious about passing on-line poker http://www.californiaonlinepoker.com/blog/inside-ab2863-california-online-poker-bill-amendments/3984/

Interesting that On-line Gambling is being voted for in 4 of the largest US states ( CAL/NY/Penn/Mich) at approx. the same time as the primaries are being held - makes me think that there is a strong chance that cash strapped states are trying to get this approved whilst the focus is on the Presidential elections - could make for a very interesting couple of weeks ahead. If these 4 are added to the other 6 where it is already approved - watch the other 40 states to lend their approval also - pronto ! That would certainly remove the discount on the SP relative to peers and in fact probably place PAYS at a premium given its monopoly - hopefully patience will be rewarded soon GLA

Thanks Phoenixchi - but at the moment mine is only a hypothisis - we will need to see an RNS on monday/tuesday to confirm. Given the amount of money involved nothing surprises me - there are plenty of perfectly legal dark arts open to MM - they are able to argue they are only making a market yet reality is they are really trading the stock same as any investor expect they are so big they are able to influence the supply/demand equation to suit their own needs. That would have been a nice £15m profit on PAYS warehousing for 3 months if my hypothisis was right. The good thing is it sets a new support level at 419p - which was previously a resistence level ( I guess we now know why it was a resistence level previously - as in there was obviously an agreed forward purchase price) and why it never traded below the 346 level at which CVC sold. This may signal taking the shackles off on the PE of PAYS as well which has been the biggest bug bear I have - we remain at a significant discount to peers - the FTSE250 average is a PE of about 22.5 - PAYS is on something like a forward 2016PE of 12 - so plenty of upside here to come.

GS - I would agree with that view. If I was to hazard a guess - it would not surprise me if Barclays had warehoused the 7.7 % CVC stake for 365p in Dec ( as I mentioned at the time) - and has now sold that on for a v tidy profit today at 421p at auction in a pre-rehearsed move possibly to some large funds. I was always somewhat suspicious why we had a RNS for the sale but none re a corresponding purchase. If my hypothesis is correct - then the 21mn share traded at auction now takes out the stock overhang we have been operating under for the past 3 months - and perhaps goes along way to understanding why sp has been volatile as of late and hasn't reacted as strongly as folks might have expected. This might now see a change in the share trading pattern going forward - with stock overhang gone we may see less volatility and maybe a more steady performance. After hours trades executed at 429p. This I would also argue sets a new support level at 419 - onwards and upwards from here GLA

Looks like one of the big boys was warehousing and then moved across to their asset management arm. So hopefully that takes out any stock overhang some trades after that time look to be at 430p - roll on monday

....the champagne !!! 430p and two trading days before we are into FTSE250 and captive buyers. I can't remember who said it on this board but I think they said the next resistance level was 475p to 490p !!

Phoenix - Interesting that SP didn't react to full yr results till US market opened and finished strong into the close - look to be on to hitting new highs before the 21st entry to FTSE250 - Why breaks off today ? Simple that only gives them a few days to push the priceback up to where it should be ahead of captive tracker funds coming in on the 21st. so +5% today, maybe something similar tomorrow and friday - then another lift on Monday - that was very easy money in a v short period. It looks on the face of it that PAYS has decided to take its write offs on acquisition costs now - with increased depn and one off costs - so going forward we sound see EPS rise in future years quite substancially - that will help with the re-rating exercise. After all Deutsche have a 500p price target - so now we should start to see more institutional roadshows. I agree this has been a great share- probably my best pick ever and largest single holding by a country mile - I have held since the net-teller days so I can't ( nor won't complain) Plenty of headroom left here IMHO GLA GLA

One possibility BB but I don't expect that to be the case - the other is that they have loaded up ahead of results and will use results to spike up price ahead of FTSE250 entry - they will have to move it north ahead of 21st if they want to capitalise off the tracker funds forced buying from 21st - I think we will see new highs before end of week - I also expect some of the Brokers to up target price based off details disclosed in full yr results and trading update - hopefully a nice warm tingly feeling come COB Friday.

on previous post please substitute "indicate" in place of " integrate" ....really need an "edit comment" function LSE (for fat fingers and small keypads) :)

Looking forward to full yr results and trading update on Wednesday, I have read on another board that there is a push to hire a significant number of heads that look to be in support of vertical product integration - which might just integrate there is good demand for product as witnessed by the tie up with worldpay and playstation GLA

I personally can't see the concern here - fundamentals are fantastic, management team that are on their A game, PAYS is in a market sector that is growing at a phenomenal rate ( compared to anything else I have seen) and sector will see further consolidating as it matures - bit of a no brainer. . As to short term volatility - hardly unsurprising given that dealing floors are full of the latest batch of 20 yr olds full of .......( expletive), busy being busy but have little life experience of distinguishing real value - that is why they are there to create churn - churn creates fees not value . For every dip there has been an even stronger rise - that tells its own story. IMHO we are going to see SP go from strength to strength in the next 18 months and we may even see it in FTSE100 / Nasdaq/NYSE then again you could put your money in the bank and earn 00000000000000000000.00000000000000000000% ( that is actually not risk free - as prices will rise anyway)