Member Info for wokinpark

it just about gets there and then falls back. for those paranoid posters - "it's being held back" !

i think once it gets through 61 and stays there, it will move onto 62, 63, etc ! it's hard work but i think it will get to a reasonable SP whatever that might be.

thats probably a good idea but as soon as i sell something it zooms up, i'll wait for 65 or so and then mostly out

seems to be mounting an attack on 61, whether it can sustain it is another thing. hoping for 65 in the short term

does sound like they are guessing it, they all end in 5, hardly an exact science. i assume it is POO related rather than any real change in CNE itself. next week should be quite important for different reasons for CNE, the critical item in my view is timing of when India is resolved but i think that is a how long is a piece of string, unless they are fairly a long way down the road they wont know as the IG will delay as much as they can and there are many Indian holidays on the horizon.

Devas seem to be playing hard ball, i have no real idea of what they are or what they do but i assume they are in the same boat as CNE, they employed Elliott didnt they to turn the screw ?
i just hope there is more news at the meeting next week specifically an update on timing, where they are in the process and what a likely cash received timescale is. in the meantime, SP closer to 200 is positive, not sure why it is so slow to get to a meaningful number.

am i right in thinking per the Catcher/Kraken circular that if the sale takes place and INR 79bn is received (£ 763m on todays rate), leaving aside any other cash received/paid, that after the (upto) $ 700m divi/share buy back, CNE will have £ 634m in cash reserves ? so do they have an acquisition in mind (or a series of) or holding cash fora rainy day ? that's an awful lot of cash to have lying around,.

as i said before, you dont get a gold medal for paying out a US$ 1 bn before you need to. this has red tape, form filling and then in triplicate and then in some obscure language before you get a pay out. to me this is still Q1 2022 before CNE get their money, whatever that might be, i think the BoD are weak, you dont let go of US$ 700m or so unless you get something back in return. i think they have played themselves, they believed what the FM inferred to them about giving them an easy ride, they want to show the large shareholders they know what they are doing, the smaller investors can go sing for it. oh and then they get large bonuses for it also.

noted. i would also have preferred a bigger payout from India than the $ 700m they have earmarked. it's free cash and the best way to tell the market you are super efficient is to say all of it goes to shareholders less tax (if any) and use the cash you have rather than letting free cash burning a hole in your pocket. i also would not have said to the market that payout from India due soon and the likely payout. i reckon the market took a dim view of that. anyhoo, if they can get to 225+ by year end, i'm out and not coming back !

sorry didnt see BanburyBoy post of a few days ago. i wouldnt be doing this transaction now even with a declining field yield and the decommission costs would be offsetable against future profits to reduce tax unless they were mega billions

is it only me or does this transaction make hardly any sense at all ? the saleprice is $455m less the interim profit calculated. so at present it is € 273m for 18m since 1st jan 2020. Assuming it completes on 30th October and extrapolating, that becomes $ 334m (or so). so CNE gets $ 121m or so plus contingent profit depending on OP. would it not make sense to keep it for another 18m and you would be sale neutral and then sell it for whatever you can get ? its hardly as if the company need the cash with the India Tax to be resolved very shortly int he eyes of the BoD ?

amazing

SEAV, that's a very good summary. thanks. i read somewhere that Vedanta also had to withdraw their case v Indian Tax Authorities for the Cairn claim to be approved for refund and not before. that's either a red herring or there may be something that CNE needs to deal with for this to be finalised.

i do get the feeling that the CNE BoD are being naive in all of this and that the Indians are going to take it to Day 119 if there is a 120 day limit on this. i certainly would have not publicly stated that it was a matter of weeks until they knew what the process timeline was .

no chance, India will drag this out for as long as possible quoting discrepancies in the filings that each company needs to do to get a refund. you dont get a gold medal for paying out a 1Bn $ out before you need (forced) to. i would be surprised if this happens pre year end. ie 31/12. i think the Indians realise that the BoD are useless, ie who in their right mind would pass up $ 0.7bn of interest and costs that has been awarded in International Arbitration and could then use that leverage v Air India sale, etc. i would compromise but not to that extent. just imho

so we have 2 moving targets at present on this; the $ agreement and whether it is taxable. personally i dont think it is taxable as it was a tax levy on CNE in the first place but until confirmed i'm taking a 25% tax provision on the $. in my view with a base SP of 160p, in my view a $1 bn agreement should be 268p SP and a $ 1.25bn agreement should be 295p. not bad if it can be achieved.

in the meantime a few p on the SP every day is not bad until an agreement is achieved

i hear the comments. the Paris properties are nothing but a red herring, £20m or so, it would take months to sell them and which buyer would want to, knowing that it is part of a annexing order. the Air India planes are more troublesome to IG and that is why i think they will concentrate on getting that overturned. i dont think they will but do CNE really want to annex planes now ? anyhoo these are just legal side issues. the main issue is what FinMin put out on the table to CNE and what CNE think of it. what might happen imo is that IG offers the base $ 1.223bn to CNE and say $ 250m + worth of alternative investment, say rights in oil/licences, etc to make it up.

until the repayment is framed (and agreed with the FinMin) and whether they have accepted principal amount or principal +. i think this is weeks away at the earliest unless there is a timeline for CNE/VODA actions that is getting closer and needs to be met so that they can save face. i think IG will drag this out for a while now, waiting for CNE to give in to a base target, whatever that might be.

Hi LP, i think it is about whether the US is an appropriate place for this to be heard from IG's stance. also it is a defensive move pending the law being framed/enacted in India. also it sets a precedent that if this happens again to say ABC UK plc then can they go to the US to enforce.

the other annoying item is that the SP is well south of where it should be if the market thought was going to be achieved. the award has been made, discussions ongoing, Indian Law changed to agree the retro tax was incorrect and yet still the SP is about a £ lower than it should be. in a reasonable world (!) i would have expected the SP to be close to 250 at present but for some reason, it cant even get to 190. something is not quite right. time will tell.

i dont disagree with any of the above. it really comes down to the mandate the CNE execs have been given by the Board and the top 3/5 shareholders as to what to accept. i assume they have global business interests and accepting what the arbitration award was and is, they will not go after the last INR but accept a reasonable agreement that is face saving all round and workable.