Member Info for WiseAfterTheFact

I think @Whatidsaytothat has summed it up really well - there's nothing particularly suspect going on here, the market is just pricing in an unlikely risk but one with very large consequences if it happens. I don't see any evidence of any major trades/exits going on - though there's no doubt a constant bit of (delta?) balancing going on. Plus, of course, seeing the sea of red today and yesterday in the US, there's no doubt a lot of risk-shedding happening, possibly going into the expected big market adjustment, which does not help Wood or any of us at all...

@Icecool - like many others here, I'd like to think you're right, but I actually think you're wrong. Just one question for you: as you have made this BB completely unbearable for weeks on end, should you be wrong on Monday, will you promise to 1. Issue a sincere apology to everyone and 2. Push off and never return here? (if you're right, you can gloat as much as you like, preferably in your own time, not ours.) Cheers.

Sorry, delete "more" from the previous response.

They're telling us they've heard no more rumours/leaks/news on a 'no' outcome.

Tbhatt - as I was saying yesterday (since when absolutely nothing has changed) probably more like 80/20 or 75/25 in expectation of a yes vote.

E-A L and Tbhatt - the outcome of the vote won't be known tomorrow (at least not officially) and even if/when a 'Yes' is announced I wouldn't expect the SP to get much above 26p. There are still risks and uncertainties, and the delay of up to 6-8 months before anyone actually gets their 30p, all of which will weigh on the SP. It looks to me like the risk of a 'no' vote is still being discounted off the SP and, absent a new bid, I don't see that changing much 'til the result of the vote is known. Plus there's a very thin trade, once again.

Raghusn - the market might think there's only a 20% chance of a 'no' vote, but that might already keep the SP down at ~24p. Plus the other risks and 8-9 months' time discount, and there we are at ~22.5p

@raghusn - the problem with that theory is that it seems neither Sidara nor anyone else is "rushing in" to hoover up the stocks - at least not on the books. The volume today and yesterday has been minimal.

I think the market is just pricing in quite a high discount on the possibility of a 'no' vote, plus other risks (including the deal falling through, and possibly regulatory should it get called in under the NSIA) and no doubt a fairly heavy time discount factor.

WHAT "evidence", @Icecool?

Dear @Icecool, appearing now to be rocking backwards and forwards chanting "It'll be OK, it'll be Ok...." like I condemned prisoner in a cell. At least the torment will be over tomorrow. You don't head for the noose, and will even get out without loss, you say. Hopefully everyone here will at least understand your frustration and inexhaustible hope. I for one will be reaching for the champagne if you prove to be right - either to celebrate as the share price magically recovers, or to drown my sorrows as it tanks. There will no doubt be plenty of people willing to accompany you to the UK Capitalism PTSD therapy group for those affected by the egregious uselessness of the 'captains of industry', the accountants and the regulators (in whom we are now being expected to place even greater faith, for the nation's sake...). Have a good rest and let the morrow bring what it does. GLTA.

Is anyone seeing anything interesting in that flurry of 8.3s and 8.5s? (All garbled on my platform). Goldman Sachs increasing short??

@Countach - already reported my addition on re-opening, and I've added more since.

@Darth - yes. One would think the MMs must know very well what the state of play is concerning the balance of II's views on the vote.

@futurehire. what a *****. why indeed would i bother? is jealousy your usual investment strategy?

Sorry, @Vulcan. I don't use the clunky old legacy traders. IBKR. Worked a treat.

Had them pre-loaded. I see they actually went through at 19.1. Just got lucky...

Nice, got all my orders @20p filled.

IBKR no longer showing WG as 'NT', but the bid page still shows price as frozen.

I'd see that as Putin impetuousness and desperation. He knows that the game is almost up. American air power and European ground defences coming. And I'm not surprised there is something of a lull in developments. Potential direct conflict between the West and Russia is not something to enter into likely - I'd be worried if we rushed into this.

EZJ adding Mallorca, Sevilla and Reykjavik from Zurich, one of Europe's most legacy-monopolised airports. Well done EZY! Good test of different markets. Hopefully, Swiss acceptance of their awful national carrier's limitations will continue to break down!