Member Info for WillJa

Under pressure to cut the dividend, but any cut would trounce the share price further.

This has fallen 14% give or take from it's recent high, insane for a supposed defensive share.

Will have some corporate action way before it goes back to 100p IMO! Managed to finally top up and the price continues to drop 😂. About a 10% yield now, set and forget (atleast try to anyway).

I'm on with Freetrade as we speak, hoping they can sort, it has been dropping steadily though.

Freetrade erroring on buying since yesterday afternoon, still doing it 😞.

Anyone else had issues?

The previous NAV updates below:

Net Asset Value, dividend & capital allocation update - Q4 2024

· Estimated unaudited Net Asset Value as at 31 December 2024 is 115.9 pence per share, a decrease of 5.7 pence per share in the quarter principally due to changes to operational assumptions and an increase in UK discount rates by 30 basis points.

· 2024 dividend target of 7.47 pence per share was met. It was covered 2.1x on a gross basis before the repayment of £206m project level debt, and 1.0x on a net basis1.

................

Net Asset Value update - Q1 2025

TRIG announces an estimated unaudited Net Asset Value as at 31 March 2025 of 112.7 pence per share, a decrease of 3.2 pence per share in the quarter principally due to a reduction in Swedish power price forecasts (-1.2p), an increase in European discount rates (-1.2p) and low wind resource in the quarter (-1.0p).

...............

Now.....

Net Asset Value update - Q2 2025

TRIG announces an estimated unaudited Net Asset Value as at 30 June 2025 of 108.2 pence per share, a decrease of 4.5 pence per share in the quarter principally due to a reduction in revenue forecasts (-4.4p).

In 6 months the NAV has fell by 7.7p.

What's stopping this declining back to the 70p level after a pretty damaging RNS?

All I see is more NAV decay.

Well done with the timing of your purchase.

All total return charts / figures are based on the dividend being reinvested on the ex dividend date.

You could buy shares using the upcoming dividend payment in advance if you have the cash available, this would give you the desired effect.

I'm in the fortunate position (some may say unfortunate haha) that I work for Aviva and have been utilising their very generous matching share plan since 2013.

The share price is the talk of the office at the moment, with a special mention to the 2020 5 year SAYE maturing this December, we're all hoping the SP remains elevated for that 🤣.

Currently my largest holding, time will tell.

Rate cut was already priced in, notice how these renewable infrastructures drifted lower after the news.

I see dividend declaration has landed.

Uncertainty around future cash flows would be the main one for me.

You have variable wind speeds, asset life / maintenance, interest rates, inflation, geopolitical, regulatory and governance interference.

Investors were spoilt when rates were low, now they have been high for a good while the landscape has changed significantly with no indication of returning to sub 1% rates.

Certainly has a place in the portfolio but I wouldn't bet the farm on it, same goes for the other infrastructure / renewable trusts.

Is the strong pound (relative) to the dollar having any effect here? This and other infrastructure trusts have been doing pretty well over the last month, coinciding with the fall of the dollar.

Is foreign money coming in to UK stocks to escape the US shinagans or buying the currencies such as the pound / Euro rather than the dollar?

Coincidence hmm?

Nope, it says in the RNS they are a separate thing.

Buybacks are fantastic providing you do enough of them to make a difference.

Hmmm, I personally think buybacks at this level of discount make perfect sense.

They come from either surplus cash flow, disposals or debt.

It comes down to what is the best investment with those funds, and at a circa 30% discount to NAV, buybacks are accretive.

In simple terms as we know there are more nuances.

Cashflow - think of it as 30% less shares to pay the dividends on meaning higher dividend per share for the same outlay.

Disposals - As long as you dispose at or in excess or NAV, same rule applies to the cashflow, yes there are fewer income producing assets, but you are using those assets (which say produced 10% income) to buy back at 30%, this more than covers the assets missed income by reducing the share count.

Debt - financing debt below the discount rate.

I'm obviously no expert and have simplified these examples but they make sense in my head.

Let them leave, it might drive the SP lower in the short run, just means we can purchase more.

Looks like it's on a road self liquidation anyway, or atleast to get small enough to attract a nice takeover offering.

Https://www.trustnet.com/news/13443429/should-you-buy-hold-or-fold-greencoat-uk-wind

Loss of income yes, but fewer shares in issue (now in treasury) offsets that and then some, as you are culling more shares due to the discount, than if it were trading at NAV.

Though I appreciate some assets yield more income % than others.

Just another buying opportunity! One Rodney, one day these will rerate and then we will have a new problem on our hands, where to put the proceeds.

I agree, I have holdings in TRY, UKW, GCP, SEQI, TRIG and INPP, they are make up roughly 80% of the portfolio, strong conviction.

The overall trajectory for rates surely has to be anywhere from 5% to 3% over the middle term, with an emphasis on lower rather than higher.

The odd blip is to be expected and with inflation linkage, seeing that remaining elevated gains the portfolio to some degree anyway.

The more these rates become normal, the more companies adapt to the new normal, in the meantime we can collect a healthy inflation linked dividend while we wait for a rerate.

If they keep on buying back the shares are depressed prices, this will only help the SP further providing we can dispose of assets at or very close to NAV. Heck we can even use surplus cashflow to buyback at these levels of discounts.

Remember whilst we are on a wide discount, each dividend distribution affects the SP by a greater degree than the NAV, pushing the discount out further, which leads to more accretive buybacks and with less shares in issues, more dividends per share. It's a self fulfilling loop of accretion providing the company is still generating cashflow surplus of costs and selling assets at or around NAV.

I'm very excited for the future and will continue to purchase when available, same with many other infrastructure and renewable trusts on large discounts.

Usual caveats, IMO only.

Keep it going as very accretive on such a wide discount, should help no end with paying future growing dividends.

You have to think corporate action or a takeover bid of some kind will happen at some point at these levels. Each day the company buys more shares down here, the dividend liability decreases and the nav per share increases slowly.