Member Info for Wigster77

I33: It really is a frustrating situation and why I find the confident predictions of "flying through 50p" this year quite amusing. As you say, MB and PM have made good progress (albeit painfully slow at times, due mainly to external factors), but any eventual good news seems to result in a derisory rise in share price, then it pulling back towards where it started from. This makes it increasingly difficult to see what news will give us the sustained "rerate" we all want. Of course, as you put it, AIM is "wild and wacky", so we could just as easily see a quick and unexpected rise totally out of the blue on the back of no news, like we did in early March, but I'm sure we'd all like a large sustained rise based on the underlying fundamentals.

Hopefully our time will come soon. We're certainly well due an "operational update", which will hopefully put a bit more meat on the bones and calm nerves.

ATB.

Thorno, from the RNS: "payment will be made during the last week of the month based on the average benchmarked price of Daqing crude oil for the month of production"

I take that as for oil produced in November 2024 we'll get whatever the average price was for that month and so on. I may have interpreted it wrong though. If correct, on asking the ever-reliable Grok this works out as follows (using Brent prices as it struggled finding the Daqing ones):

To find the average Brent price over the period, I’ll use the estimated monthly averages:

November 2024: $80/bbl

December 2024: $73.86/bbl

January 2025: $78/bbl

February 2025: $74/bbl

March 2025: $70/bbl

April 2025: $68/bbl

Summing these:

$80 + $73.86 + $78 + $74 + $70 + $68 = $443.86

Dividing by 6 months:

$443.86 ÷ 6 ≈ $73.98/bbl

I am one of those doubting that we will see 50p this year.

IMHO, the only way we would get anywhere near this level would be to exceed expectations on all levels, i.e:

Heron 1 - reaching record production levels (1000+bopd)

Heron 2 - fixed and achieving 500+bopd

Gazelle - fully successful and achieving excellent bopd levels (don't know what figure this would be off the top of my head, but you get the point)

Gobi - oil confirmed, drilled and pumping away at good rates with no issues

JV/TO on mind-blowing terms

Cast-iron aggressive drilling plan for 2026.

With all of that, plus some excellent marketing of the company, and IIs piling in left right and centre we may well see a decent rise, but "blowing through" 50p would still be going a bit!! Let's see though.

All IMO & WTFDIK....what do you all think?

Blimey, just seen I'm agreeing with Proquo. Need a lie down.

I33: "It's very true that the priority right now is to ramp up production from what we have already with the help of the various fixes. I'll still be casting nervous glances at the price of crude however...."

100% correct we should concentrate on the things that we can influence, rather than things we can't. Hopefully the upcoming "Operational Update" will give confidence MB has got it all in had, both from an oil production point of view and the renewables (which is the one I'm most interested in hearing more details about as, like WOS says, it really could be "transformational" - just need a bit more meat of a plan).

GLA & ATB.

Richar - use the Filter button above the blue new post bar.

You're the one that cries on about an "illegal" stock bashing gang on a bulletin board, Proquo, so you've clearly outdone me for value.

Anyway, WOS is right, why don't you filter me, then you can talk about MATD instead (or green compost boxes)?

"Interesting to see Wigster not denying they are indeed Doc. Lovely"

It's just a fantasy in your head that's why. And the burden of proof is for you to prove that I am, since you're the one making the accusation. Same as those who say I'm "ADW" and "Professional" and whomever else. Prove it if you're that sure. You can't, because it's not true. This is the only account I've ever had on here.

Proquo - "I'm still chortling at Wigster/Doc making a fool of themselves. Brilliant"

What, the bit where you said my start of the year predictions were wrong as they were actually too bullish? Great, glad I've brought some joy to your morning.

ZERO.

Yes Proquo, sometimes things go even worse than even us "illegal stock bashers" predict...

Since you're so clever, what does your critical analysis tell you? Is Abzzba's 5p by the end of May and 12p EOY on the button? Or is WOS's 20p+ by the end of the year the one? Or, are they "deramping" by giving such low figures and we should all be banking on Hamm's 50p by end of the year?

Go on, the floor is yours.

WOS - I value your research and truly hope we do hit 20p+ this year. That will see me retiring off into the sunset, via the Ferrari dealer. 20p+ is a "you think" prediction though.

Here's my prediction from Jan 1st Proquo:

So, just for fun, here's how I see the year panning out:

Jan/Feb - Sign offs and hopefully news of the new PSCs and robust plan for 2025

March - News on renewables - although I'm not sure this will do much to the SP at this stage

April - H1 uplift to 500bopd, hopefully more. Fund raise - 300/400m shares, depending on what SP is doing.

May - H2 rectified. Hopefully this is not too expensive. Again, 500bopd would be nice

June to Oct - H3 and H4 drilled (hopefully without issues). Possible work on GOBI.

I'm setting my expectations at a year high of 3.4p, possibly dropping back to 3.2p at end of year.

Conservative? Yes, of course, but I thought I was being conservative at a 15p (IIRC) prediction last year when others were around the 30p mark - even 60p+... and we all know where the SP is now!!

3.2p would also represent a year rise of over 100%, so not bad by any standards. I do hope it gets a lot lot higher of course (the figures Progressive quote would be very nice) and by-golly we all deserve it.

Any one else care to have a stab at how our 2025 will look?

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Conservative? Possibly. Negative or telling people not to invest in MATD? Nope.

I assume you're putting me in this "illegal stockbashing group".

Where have I ever said not to invest in MATD, or why I wouldn't?

And if you read it, I said it was a "reverse tempting fate" prediction - surely you're intelligent enough to know what I meant by that?

Sorry, are we only allowed predictions above the current SP?

Green bin us both then Proquo. To be fair, if you go to Mongolia and stick your head in the sand to avoid any critical analysis on here you might spot some more oil locations for us.

"Wigster ; I have already filtered Doc83"

Suggest you stop moaning about him then. That's a market TBT has cornered.

"Maybe you should tell us more about how you allegedly know the guy? Apparently you know what the size of his MATD holding is as well - so why all the secrecy if he's a bona fida MATD investor ?"

As has been mentioned many times before, I know him from my Synairgen investments and meeting him (and various others) at AGMs etc. No secrecy, you've just not trawled back far enough through previous messages.

He is a MATD holder and definitely not a MM. You've been gaslighted by TBT and the happy clappy crew. As you joyously point out, our Synairgen investment hasn't gone well (although they are still going). You've also lowered yourself to mocking people who've got sizable paper loses - all fine, shows the sort of person you are. That bad experience tends to make people quite cynical and more critical of their investments though, so they don't just take "50p this year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" as gospel. They tend to do more due diligence and question things and look at the "what ifs" - even if they're negative. This doesn't make them a "stockbasher" and certainly not a "MM". Hell, even the research notes which people love to quote have SWOT analyses on.

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This was Doc's comment, which sparked your reply (even though you couldn't see it):

“20p (plus) - Within H2 2025”

I just can’t see the SP getting anywhere close to that. But what might be needed? Not a TO, because I can’t see a PC paying that.

It would need something like a JV on tremendous terms, like PC fully paying up to drill multiple wells this year (unlikely any JV in time for this year, according to MB), Gobi and Gazelle to blow the doors off, a positive curveball from the renewables and more.

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That's not too bad is it? They're fair questions aren't they? What's your take?...or are you happy to just swallow Hamms "50p in 2025" AI-generated stuff at face value while you pop down to order your Ferrari?

In Jan 2021, Synairgen was more "nailed on" than this share according to lots on their BB (unfortunately we didn't have the foresight of Thornogson, but I guess if he'd had come onto the board voicing his concerns he'd have likely been called a "neg" or "MM" by some anyway) - and look how that turned out.

Do your due dilligence, don't just swallow everything you're told on here.

"Buys are more 1k/2k worth than what he's suggesting. FUD merchant ."

When WOS posted the average buy was £512.

I33: Doc83's pet scare tactic of talking about a share consolidation hasn't happened either....

Here we go again....the pet scare tactic which he mentioned.....once!! And please explain how a share consolidation could be a scare tactic?

I hate to say it I33, but you're beginning to sound more and more like Tenbagtag every day. If Doc winds you up so much then filter him ffs!! I filtered TBT and Stockmaiden and it dramatically improved the board.

So, I33, tell us how you see it getting to 20p+ this year and 50p the year after.