Member Info for Wigster77

I reckon WOS knew…

Not the first time he's gone from 200 posts per day to ZERO shortly before bad news.

3p by close simply isn't happening. I reckon 1.42p. Let's see who's closest.

£1 party?! Isn't that a bit like planning a party for your 150th Birthday?

Anyway, joking aside, a nice rise today. Same again tomorrow?

I'd like to see it at least break through 2.4p first of all...seems to struggle there.

Anyway, it really is over to MB now. Don't balls it up with a lacklustre RNS please.

GLA

I33, with respect, the filter works best if you forget about and no longer reference the people you've filtered. I would recommend you wang Aquisace in there too.

I33: "Going alone should hopefully be a non-starter"

Devil's advocate - doesn't the above comment indicate that we are in a weak negotiating position for a full takeover of Heron and why MB is looking at partnership activities instead/first? We're also likely to need to "go it alone" on some bits to even attract a partner - getting H1 & H2 sorted for example. As per the AGM Q&A when MB said the following - admittedly in reference to RBL, but the general sentiment could equally apply to an entity wanting to partner up:

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Are Petro Matad considering any reserve-based lending options to develop Heron? Well, we need production history that demonstrates reliability and revenues sufficient to cover the terms of such a loan. Heron 1 by itself is probably not enough, but once reserves increases are proved by step out drilling and production has been shown to be reliable, then an RBL could very well be available and these are common instruments used by companies like ours to be able to finance the next stage of their work. by companies like ours to be able to finance the next stage of their work.

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I would hope that we have the cash to be able to get H1 and H2 sorted, now we are revenue generating, but would be nice to get that confirmed once and for all.

//I then asked it the following://

Grok - the A.I. guru and knower of all-things Mongolian oil-field related.

I then asked it the following:

"How do you see the valuations changing if Petro Matad get Gazelle and Gobi producing to similar flows as found as Heron 1? (I believe it flowed at 821bopd unstimulated during testing)"

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Final Answer

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If Gazelle and Gobi Bear achieve production flows similar to Heron-1’s 821 bopd (unstimulated), confirming 2P reserves, the sale valuations of Petro Matad’s Block XX oil fields increase by 68–79% due to de-risked prospects, higher cash flows (>$40/bbl netback), and PetroChina synergy (web:14). Updated valuations, based on comparable deals ($3–8/BOE for producing fields) and 2025 conditions (Brent $70–80/bbl), are:

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Total Valuation:

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Base Case: $481–767 million (likely range, reflecting production across all prospects).

Upside Case: $767–988 million (if Block XX scales to >9,000 bopd or Brent at $80+/bbl).

Downside Case: $286–435.5 million (if reservoir or scaling issues arise).

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Per Prospect (Base Case):

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Heron: $273–364 million ($6–8/BOE × 45.5M barrels, producing, enhanced portfolio value).web:18

Gazelle: $52–91 million ($4–7/BOE × 13M barrels, producing at 821 bopd, infrastructure synergy).web:2

Gobi Bear: $156–312 million ($3–6/BOE × 52M barrels, producing at 821 bopd, large reserves).web:8

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Rationale:

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Gazelle and Gobi Bear’s 821 bopd production confirms 2P reserves, raising valuations to $4–7/BOE (Gazelle) and $3–6/BOE (Gobi Bear), from $1.5–2.5/BOE and $0.75–1.5/BOE, respectively, due to eliminated exploration risk.web:2,web:8

Heron’s $6–8/BOE (from $5–7/BOE) reflects Block XX’s de-risked portfolio and PetroChina’s infrastructure synergy (web:14).

Netback (>$40/bbl) and shared Block XIX facilities drive cash flows (~$36M/year at 2,463 bopd), supporting $481–767M base case, ~5–8x Zeus’s $90M NAV (web:9).

Comparable Central Asian deals ($5–7/BOE for producing fields, web:11) validate $/BOE ranges.

Grok's answer doesn't seem to be a million miles off yours Abzzba:

Final Answer

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The Cooperation Agreement with PetroChina increases the sale valuations of Petro Matad’s Block XX oil fields (Heron, Gazelle, Gobi Bear) by ~22–29% due to a high netback (>$40/bbl), infrastructure synergy, and de-risked export, enhancing cash flows and buyer appeal. Updated valuations, based on comparable deals ($5–7/BOE for producing, $0.75–2.5/BOE for prospective) and 2025 market conditions, are:

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Total Valuation:

Base Case: $286–429 million (likely range, reflecting netback and PetroChina synergy).

Upside Case: $429–585 million (if Gobi Bear succeeds, Brent at $80+/bbl).

Downside Case: $161.85–240.5 million (if production or test issues arise).

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Per Prospect (Base Case):

Heron: $227.5–318.5 million ($5–7/BOE × 45.5M barrels, producing, high netback).web:18

Gazelle: $19.5–32.5 million ($1.5–2.5/BOE × 13M barrels, prospective, infrastructure synergy).web:2

Gobi Bear: $39–78 million ($0.75–1.5/BOE × 52M barrels, exploration, de-risked export).web:8

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Rationale:

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Agreement’s >$40/bbl netback (57%+ of $70/bbl sales price) and Block XIX infrastructure access boost Heron’s value ($5–7/BOE vs. $4–6/BOE), with smaller uplifts for Gazelle and Gobi Bear.web:14

PetroChina’s synergy (shared facilities, export to China) adds a 10–20% premium, aligning with Central Asian deals ($5–7/BOE for 2P reserves).web:11

Risks (gas pressure, unproven prospects) are mitigated by agreement, supporting $286–429M base case, ~3–5x Zeus’s $90M NAV.web:9

"Looking promising today."

"Looks like we're ticking up this morning."

What were these comments based on? Are you expecting news today?

"You guys and gals not heard of and seen Bed and ISA transactions?"

To be fair, the minus transactions came onto the LSE list a little bit after the sells, so it wasn't obvious it was a B&I for a little while.

Holding above 2p today would indeed be nice. 35 mins...can it manage it?

There was a 1,160,000 sell which didn't appear on LSE for some reason...

I33: "A blizzard of sells come in when just over the 2p mark - still a major resistance point...."

Yes, just when you think it's gaining some traction and the bid goes/ask goes up to 2.10/2.20 we have 4.6 million shares sold and 167000 bought since then. Frustrating.

I33 - Yes, pitiful volume recently. MB really needs to give us some sort of meaningful update.

Ref Hamm's 50p assertions, this was my response recently -

I am one of those doubting that we will see 50p this year.

IMHO, the only way we would get anywhere near this level would be to exceed expectations on all levels, i.e:

Heron 1 - reaching record production levels (1000+bopd)

Heron 2 - fixed and achieving 500+bopd

Gazelle - fully successful and achieving excellent bopd levels (don't know what figure this would be off the top of my head, but you get the point)

Gobi - oil confirmed, drilled and pumping away at good rates with no issues

JV/TO on mind-blowing terms

Cast-iron aggressive drilling plan for 2026.

With all of that, plus some excellent marketing of the company, and I.Is piling in left right and centre we may well see a decent rise, but "blowing through" 50p would still be going a bit!! Let's see though.

All IMO & WTFDIK....what do you all think?

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Yes, it's interesting that people seem to just accept "50p this year" without questioning it.

ATB.

Blimey Abz, you nearly took my arm off with that bite!! Thanks for clarifying. Hopefully we will get a nice positive RNS by June.

5p by June Thorno...not long to wait now, only 8 trading days including today.

Nice to see 2p - will it last?

I will take 36p too, as it gives me over £1M profit. Where do I sign?

Furry65: My heart hopes for the best but my head is telling me H1 is producing approx 180 BPD and awaits a fix

I agree with WOS and Proquo - I doubt whether the well could have achieved the maximum desired initial "safe" rate of 200bopd straight from the get-go and there would have likely been a production ramp up plan and remedial works and Proquo has detailed. Standard commissioning procedure in any industry. I'm also assuming wells in general are designed to run 365 days per year, with no downtime due to holidays/lack of personnel?? The last RNS quoted c200 bopd and their use of the word "steadily" suggested to me no major issues at that level. Respect you being cautious though.

Hopefully the next few updates will include news of a sizable increase in production.