Member Info for Wigster77

My "tempting fate in reverse" prediction is 1.72p close.

ATB & GLA

"A costed work plan RNS may even be enough to give us a little jolt while we wait for the actual work to commence..."

I meant "Jolt upwards with the SP" in case it wasn't clear.

"Last year activities started around end of June.

Satellite images show no movement at any of the sites..

Equipment still present at H2 and gobi"

Thanks for the update. I was hoping they'd start work as soon as the temperatures starting rising, but I guess it was also prudent to wait until cash coming in was guaranteed, so hopefully activity won't be far off now. A costed work plan RNS may even be enough to give us a little jolt while we wait for the actual work to commence...

Proquo - there is no "illegal stockbashing gang". And can we not just have one day where we enjoy a positive RNS and hopefully a nice solid SP increase rather that sowing division and sniping at each other?

ATB

Nice to see my prediction of 1.92p high being smashed already. Go Go Go.

Early days - WOSs crew waiting to buy "million share blocks" are probably still finishing their Salmon and Smashed Avocado breakfasts.

My prediction is a high of 1.92p, dropping back to 1.78p at close. Hopefully will keep pushing on throughout the week. An operational update on field activities can't be too far off either.

GLA

The-Lockie: "Anyone hazard a guess as to what the sale of Block XX would do to the SP..........5-10p ??"

This is what Grok had to say a few days back. Obviously just AI, but gives some idea:

Percentage Chances of a Deal in 2025:

Technical Joint Venture: 70%—High likelihood due to confirmed discussions with three entities, PetroChina’s strategic fit, and Petro Matad’s funding needs, tempered by bureaucratic and technical risks.

Full Buyout: 30%—Moderate chance driven by PetroChina’s rumored interest and Heron’s value (£130-170 million base case), but limited by unproven reserves, no RNS confirmation, and preference for JVs.

Any Deal (JV or Buyout): 80%—Strong overall probability reflecting deal momentum, government support, and operational progress, offset by Mongolia’s regulatory challenges and Heron-2’s issues.

Valuation Context:

Heron Only: A JV could involve £50-100 million for 50%, a buyout £130-170 million.

Heron + Gobi Bear-1: A JV might attract £200-300 million, a buyout £650-750 million, but this requires 2025 drilling success, unlikely per the “quiet year” AGM.

A £400-500 million buyout (20x MCap) is only feasible with Gobi Bear-1’s 100 million barrels proven, reducing its 2025 likelihood.

MCap Bearing: Petro Matad’s £24.48 million MCap signals undervaluation, amplifying deal impact (e.g., 5-7x for a £130-170 million buyout), but the offer will focus on asset NPV (£165 million base case), not MCap. Competition could push PetroChina’s offer higher, while financial weakness might force acceptance of a lower bid.

Margaritas - so you're saying that JV talks with PC would be "really bad news"? How come?

As WOS said, it could also have been signed weeks ago but MB doesn't see it as being that big a deal so is waiting to wrap it up in his next big Operational Update, which Proquo told us would be this week as he call feel it in his water.

Great news. I'm sure we'll all be looking out for them over the next few hours/days.

Hamm: "We’re not hyping"

Re-read your 9:00am post.

THE EXPLOSION HAS BEGUN!

This isn’t just a good story—it’s a rocket waiting to launch.

MATD is screaming one thing: "SERIOUSLY UNDERVALUED AND READY TO EXPLODE!"

This is the kind of moment investors dream of.

Massive rerate loading...

-------------------

I hope it's all true. I hope that we do indeed hit 50p this year, as your many posts have asserted, and MATD makes me a multi-millionaire in the next 7 months. BONUS - You'll never see me on here again and I suspect many others too.

I just need to see the hard evidence (RNS's, presentations, updates, firm plans and strategy) to believe it.

This is not me being negative. At the minute the hope is lovely - but that alone will struggle to get us to 50p.

ATB.

WOS, for some reason there's a few trades missing from LSE again. I make it:

Sold Volume - £30.2K

Bought Volume - £12.3K

Unknown - £1.8K

SP change: minus 6.06% - although the Bid/Ask appear to be the same as at open.

Tenbag, if you're so passionately invested in MATD, why don't you try posting something about the company, your hopes, views on future prospects etc?

Why spend all of your time just attacking other posters? It really is boring now. Why don't you just filter all of the "negs" etc and concentrate on MATD? Add *something* of value at least.

"Heron Field deal this year? Close to 100% I'd have thought."

Funnily enough, I asked Grok to assess the chances of this a few days ago when some valuation thoughts were being bandied around about a PC deal. The answers given gave a higher percentage chance than I expected, but WTFDIK:

Percentage Chances of a Deal in 2025:

Technical Joint Venture: 70%—High likelihood due to confirmed discussions with three entities, PetroChina’s strategic fit, and Petro Matad’s funding needs, tempered by bureaucratic and technical risks.

Full Buyout: 30%—Moderate chance driven by PetroChina’s rumored interest and Heron’s value (£130-170 million base case), but limited by unproven reserves, no RNS confirmation, and preference for JVs.

Any Deal (JV or Buyout): 80%—Strong overall probability reflecting deal momentum, government support, and operational progress, offset by Mongolia’s regulatory challenges and Heron-2’s issues.

Valuation Context:

Heron Only: A JV could involve £50-100 million for 50%, a buyout £130-170 million.

Heron + Gobi Bear-1: A JV might attract £200-300 million, a buyout £650-750 million, but this requires 2025 drilling success, unlikely per the “quiet year” AGM.

A £400-500 million buyout (20x MCap) is only feasible with Gobi Bear-1’s 100 million barrels proven, reducing its 2025 likelihood.

MCap Bearing: Petro Matad’s £24.48 million MCap signals undervaluation, amplifying deal impact (e.g., 5-7x for a £130-170 million buyout), but the offer will focus on asset NPV (£165 million base case), not MCap. Competition could push PetroChina’s offer higher, while financial weakness might force acceptance of a lower bid.

I bet you've given Hamm's relentless AI-Generated "50p Re-rate in 2025" essays a few sneaky recommends though Abz!! 🤪

WOS, I don't know the full legals behind disclosure of the signature, but if it is signed then it might result in a nice little upward move on the SP if/when Mr Buck lets us know. He could be saving the news to do his customary all-encompassing "Operational Update", but the point is that the SP is clearly going nowhere until we know the facts for certain from MB.

Sounds to me like we desperately need an RNS off the man himself Mr Buck to update/clarify:

- Status of PC & Export signatures

- Work plan & costings for 2025 and current status (I'd like to think some of it's started already...)

- Update on talks to "secure a partner to accelerate its oil development activities"

HOUSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I've already got "stockbasher" Tenbag :-(