Member Info for Wigster77

Yes, RPT, things are that great that this morning we had our lowest ever priced sell go through...

RPT: The absolute main focus by most here has been the supposed certainty of a raise. That's put to bed with funds covered until July 2026.

Pretty much sums up the level of your understanding here.

Go and read the Going Concern statement from last year's results (RNS 19th June 2024) which was very similar to today's, then look at the RNS of 25th June 2024. No, a raise isn't certain, but the GC statement hasn't really reduced its chances either.

This header really looks like a WOS one!! And "take it or leave it"...where have I heard that one before?

Margaritas: "Really, could Adw be working for the Chinese, you bet, scenario as follows, Chinese want the Heron field but do not want to pay over the odds so they hire UK based trader to supress MATAD share price, said trading company pays low life BASHERs like Adw, StockMad, Furry, Aquisace etc etc to post FUD on this and other boards all day long, look back at posts pre Sept / October last year, very reasonable board with good input, then a few weeks before H1 started producing the BASHERs arrived en masse, how many fake and multiple ID accounts have we had since then, dozens is the answer."

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Please clarify. Are you saying that the price Petro China will pay for the Heron block is directly linked to the SP, rather than the value of the millions of barrels of oil in the ground?

"Let's watch this space. Comments on immediate price levels are irrelevant to bigger picture developments (unless you're a trader)"

But you're a trader aren't you? A Real, Pro one at that...

Also Hamm: "Anyone still doubting that we will not see 50p this year needs to seriously reconsider the facts. With all the activity on the ground, major news flow expected, and sentiment starting to shift, a rerate is not just likely—it’s inevitable. We will not see 50p—we will blow past it. The momentum is real, and those who aren't paying attention now will be left behind"

Thanks Abzzba - let's hope this comes to fruition very soon: "$100 million to $900 million, with a likely valuation clustered between $200 million and $600 million"

Good old Investor33. Filtering me (if you believe him), but can't resist having a dig to feed his fragile ego...

In part response to his latest hysterics:

"He didn't even mention Leap Energy's assessment of 33m to 58m barrels, which is probably the most important bit of info of all to have mentioned. He probably has no idea who Leap Energy are."

Yes I do know who Leap Energy are thank you...and so did Grok. Here is a portion of its response to my question:

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Resource Estimates:

A Competent Persons’ Report (CPR) by Leap Energy estimates 194 million barrels (MMbbl) of mean, unrisked in-place oil for the Heron structure, 20% higher than Petro Matad’s initial assessment.

Recoverable reserves are estimated at 33 MMbbl (base case, 17% recovery factor), with potential upside from modern stimulation and water re-injection techniques.

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I also clearly didn't state that 160bopd was a "definitive maximum for Heron 1". These are just lies to try and discredit. In any case, Grok said the following:

Heron-1: Current ~160 bopd, potentially increasing to 300–821 bopd with modifications. Assume 250 bopd average for valuation (midpoint of stabilized range).

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Investor33, just saw a valuation answer from Grok that he didn't like and went into full melodramatic "attack the poster" mode. A recurring theme from him recently. If he remained calm, he maybe would have asked what its detailed answer was (it went into hundreds of lines) and maybe politely asked if I could re-phrase the question to it and/or highlight any salient points it may have missed...

Aegos: "I see that LSE has mangled my last post by removing all capital letters and chemical formuli so I will resubmit it later when their system appears functional."

The "anti naughty word" filter on here is very sensitive, so even UK place names like Scu nthorpe or the UK slang for cigarettes will result in asterisks, for example. Weirdly, any post falling foul of this filter also seems to lose its capital letters.

Very interesting post anyway, many thanks!!

Hamm, you sound less confident than you were a few weeks ago:

Anyone still doubting that we will not see 50p this year needs to seriously reconsider the facts. With all the activity on the ground, major news flow expected, and sentiment starting to shift, a rerate is not just likely—it’s inevitable. We will not see 50p—we will blow past it. The momentum is real, and those who aren't paying attention now will be left behind.

The rerate isn’t a question of “if,” but “when” — and with everything lining up, that moment could come sooner than most expect.

MATD is sitting on a strategic goldmine, and when the market catches up, a 50p+ rerate won’t just be possible — it’ll be inevitable.

No fundraise, no dilution—that alone probably left the bashers totally confused, maybe even let down whoever’s pulling their strings. Because let’s be real, who hangs around bashing a stock for months without holding any shares? Only someone on a mission.

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You're not turning into a Stock-basher are you?

"For the record though the guy that I often monitor and learn from made $205,000 in a single day just last week. He usually averages at least $35,000 on an average trading day."

I wondered how long it'd be until you brought him up. About 35 minutes off your personal best, but not too bad though.

"And believe it or not price action can radically change at some point - it's obvious to anybody with intelligence that since the local permission was granted the nature of the price action has radically changed, with much more muted bars or candles depending on which you look at"

For months you were telling anyone and everyone that the price would definitely rise in the early part of the year, even mentioning some bloke on another board who makes thousands through knowing this "fact". You neglected to mention the above back then didn't you?...and mocked those of us that knew that the charts weren't the secret sauce to future predictions.

So, maybe some contrition is due, rather than calling people "particularly dumb"

Anyway before you finally filter me, hows the Grok query going?

Go on then, ask it yourself - see what it says and share it with the board. Then if it doesn't give you the figure you want you can moan at Elon Musk and filter him too.

One should also wonder if Investor33 was being genuine when he was droning on and on and on about charts and how the share price will definitely rise by multiples in the early part of the year because his magical charts said it would. Early part of the year being upto June of course!! Well that's going well isn't it?

About as well as "5p by June", "12p by Bastille day" (Lovely), 20p+ by the end of the year, "50p in 2025"....not to mention these gems from twat-in-chief Tenbagtag: £5m-£10m over winter, Dividends in 2025, JV during winter, Heron 2 online this month, heron 3/4/5/6/7/8/9/10/11/12/13/14/15 in 2025, 100 bag potential from here 🚀🚀🚀🚀, BEST SHARE ON AIM, RE RATE INCOMING 💰🛢️💰🛢️💰🛢️💰, I stand by my prediction: $5 million to $ 10 million revenue over winter. With heron 2 fracked, easy peasy. Let’s see who’s right. I’m extremely confident 😎, Heron 1 potential to produce 800-1000 bopd ✅

So, I'm now disingenuous. Lovely.

Maybe somebody who's not filtered by Investor33 and Dozzawba (if there's any left) could craft a question to Grok that isn't "disingenuous" and see what figures it comes back with? Hopefully it'll be hundreds of millions of pounds and we can all sleep tight that Hamm's "50p by the end of the year" will definitely happen.

There were a few, but the initial one was this:

It is rumoured that Petro China are interested in buying Petro Matad's Heron asset. What value you would put on that asset, given recent RNSs from Petro Matad reference the output from Heron 1 (160bopd) and difficulties with Heron 2? What would you consider a fair price and what would you expect Petro China to offer for the asset if, indeed, they were interested in it? In this instance would the Market Cap of Petro Matad (c£18.6M) have a bearing on any offer?

Here's Grok's take on any potential offer for the Heron field by Petro China:

Final Answer

PDP Valuation ($5–$10/bbl): Yes, it accounts for Heron’s risks and teething problems, including Heron-1’s 160 bopd limit (vs. 821 bopd potential), Heron-2’s suspension (~30 bopd), tax disputes (30% withheld, X Post 0), and regulatory delays (Web Result 23). The range is a fraction of the oil price ($70/bbl) and negotiated price ($43/bbl) because it reflects net discounted cash flows after costs (~$15/bbl OPEX), PSC terms (~60% net revenue), and risks, not gross revenue per barrel.

Heron Valuation: Revised to ~$35M (£27.3M), blending market-based ($44.625M, $7/bbl PDP, $2.5/bbl PUD, risked 50%) and NPV ($25M, adjusted for 160–500 bopd, $70/bbl).

Fair Price: $30–40M (£23.4–£31.3M), reflecting current constraints and potential upside.

PetroChina’s Offer: $25–$35M (£19.5–£27.3M), likely ~$30M (£23.4M), not excessively low as it’s ~75% of fair value, aligning with risks (Heron-2, tax issues) and synergies with Block XIX (X Post 0). A higher offer ($40M) would require production increases (e.g., 300 bopd), not yet achieved.

Market Cap (£18.6M): Ensures $30M exceeds negotiation floor, supporting asset deal over company buyout.

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In a previous answer it gave the following (PDP = proved developed, PUD = proven undeveloped):

PDP Valuation: Using the verified $5–$10/bbl for PDP reserves (Mercer Capital 2019, Investopedia 2024, SPE PRMS 2018, Wood Mackenzie):

1.5 MMbbl × $5/bbl (risked 50%) = $3.75M.

1.5 MMbbl × $10/bbl (risked 50%) = $7.5M.

PDP Range: $3.75–$7.5M, not $165–$330M.

PUD Valuation: Using $1–$3/bbl for PUD reserves:

31.5 MMbbl × $1/bbl (risked 50%) = $15.75M.

31.5 MMbbl × $3/bbl (risked 50%) = $47.25M.

PUD Range: $15.75–$47.25M.

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All seems a bit low to me. I asked it whether a JV would therefore be preferable to selling Heron and it said yes - and I totally agree based on the figures it gives above!!

ATB.

Master, why do you say "Gazelle is a no go area"? (I must admit I didn't know much about its history and was somewhat surprised when it was suddenly back on the table as an option to increase production).

RPT: "work on Heron 2 (again low cost)". What estimated costs do they put against the Heron 2 work?

How's "playing the ball" going RPT?