Member Info for Wiggly

up and running! THe main focus will be on the LFT!

But the company needs an incentive too or else why bother?

Well, I can think of one. The company will need some major II sticky backers if they want to drive this to conclusion, otherwise, AVCT will be bought earlier than we all hope.

The MHRA List of medical devices given exceptional use authorisations was Updated on 20 April 2021
It looks like the Innova LFT kit, which the UK government has relied upon this past six months or so has been cancelled and the contract expires 22nd June 21. Therefore, the UK will need some alternative !!!! The numbers that will be required being so huge the transition form the Innova test to the new test/s will surely start soon.
"Manufacturer: Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC)
Device/model name: COVID-19 Self-Test (Repurposed Innova/Biotime Test Kit) to detect infection in asymptomatic individuals

This test is only available through the National Testing Programme.

Issue date: 22/12/2020

Expiry date: 22/06/2021

MHRA reference number: DEU/012/2020/003"
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/medical-devices-given-exceptional-use-authorisations-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/list-of-medical-devices-given-exceptional-use-authorisations

MHRA have pulled their licence!

Updated 20th April...

Another coincidence I guess.

I can answer my own question - it starts at 930am.

Based on the reaction to the SP, I think they may have started 10 minutes early!!

A sell-side analyst briefing given by Alastair Smith, Chief Executive Officer; Tony Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer; and Neil Bell, Chief Development Officer, will be held by webcast presentation, followed by a Q&A session, at 9.30am BST on Thursday, 22 April 2021.

What time does the sell side analysts presentation commence? I assume they will receive even more detail that the plebs at 11am? The broker notes to follow are going to be very interesting as even if we maxed out at 30m per month (its going to be far higher if we can execute on licencing deals and overseas production) then they need to assign valuation targets well in excess of current (without any consideration for the non covid potential).

Avacta is working closely with Bruker and Adeptrix to review the commercial strategy for the SARS-CoV-2 assay AND for a wider range of BAMS proteomics tests in general.

Hopefully some long term potential on the BAMS (non covid) front.

Sorry all, Sang is right Hybrid test is mentioned. I wonder if it is required now, considering the sensitivity AVCT can deliver on its own.

Interestingly, Mologic are in (have been sponsored) with the US Gov, so the close partnership offers us a direct route to the US market. I think the partnership could be quite useful, MOL is a big player and can open doors for us..

Which brings me to the next question, which hopefully can be clarified during the Q&A today. From what I can gather, assuming the leaked slides are accurate, BBI and Abington were developing the Saliva test and GAD/MOL supported with development of AN test (which BBI and Abington will now produce). As the sensitivity of the AN test surprised many (100% for those considered infectious), is there any chance that this is the Hybrid S+N test that the partnership with MOL was established to deliver? From the 8th of Feb RNS;

'A hybrid antigen test such as this is expected to be a world first and has the potential to deliver an extremely sensitive lateral flow coronavirus antigen test'

If the above was correct, I would expect AVCT to have said so in the RNS, so its unlikely to be the case. Just strange that it all seems to line up?

Any other thoughts?

This is the biggy as it offers truly blue sky potential. The Affimer reagent can deliver best in class results, almost perfect for detecting the most infectious, so highly probably that AVCT can licence the reagent/test globally.

'We have made very good commercial progress with potential distributors, licensing partners and large-scale end users and demand is strong'

You simply cannot put a number on the licensing potential, its enormous!

I would agree. There will be some big players with very big pockets who would love to secure full rights to a world beating Covid LFT.

The market going forward is insanely big.

Re Medusa19, I am sure they have had some knowledge on how CV has been progressing however, if not, I think we can be sure they pressed the button yesterday on the additional investment required to ramp up to 100m per month. I think quite a few of the AVCT manufacturing partners did likewise.

Based on the following, assuming they assign 80% of their EXISTING capacity to the Affidx test, we are talking 72m per month and revenues of £360m per month (at £5 per test). Why wouldn't they assign 80% capacity to the best in class test?

Incredibly, this does not include any SE Asia partners or US (Danaher/Cytiva);

ODX Capacity: 8m / month (by 1st May)
ABDX Capacity: 12m / month (end of 2021)
Medusa: 50m / month ("Medusa 19 is planning to ramp up production to 50m tests each month at its manufacturing site in the Wirral.")
GAD / Mologic: 20 / month (conservative estimate)

“ Only 32 people hospitalised with Covid after having vaccination
Scientists ‘delighted’ with data showing effectiveness of Britain’s jabs programme but Boris Johnson says he will not deviate from roadmap”

NdN,

Very few people were exposed to the virus, due to lock down. If we remove social distancing and let the virus rip, there is potential for 1000s more to be hospitalised and new variants to form.

The timing of this change in policy cannot be a coincidence, it is surely linked to the CV results AVCT released yesterday. Based on publicly known results, it is only the AVCT LFT that is capable of delivering the accuracy required to facilitate LFT testing for air travel.

Only a matter of time now.

- Best performance data globaly
- Working with all of the UK manufacturers (GAD/MOL, BBI, Abington, ODX, Medusa19)
- MOL conceded their Manufacturing capacity to direct competitor AVCT
- Device designed for ease of use (AN) as dictated by UK Gov
- Device designed with readily available parts, enabling it to be scaled to huge volumes

We have had rumours for months that AVCT were central to UK Gov plans. With consideration of the above, there can be no doubt now that it has been us all along.

This upcoming award is not reflected in the share price. The size of the contract award is going to dwarf the current MC.

If not buying on the open market today they will 100% be doing so after the presentation tomorrow.

Amazing that some thought AVCT/AS would set up an investor presentation (designed to attract sticky investors) without some significant news to ramp. He will no doubt provide guidance on volumes, markets/customers, detailed LFT performance comparison etc, and then guidance on where the non covid business is heading.

Very excited for the future and had the best sleep last night. I can now sit back and watch this story unfold without any concern at all.

I quite like numbers.... Do you think the following is a coincidence;

DHSC Phase 3b;

Innova = 142/157 = 90.4%
LFDx = 62/67 = 92.5%
Orient = 67/72 = 93%
Deepblue = 121/133 = 91%

The average of the positive tests above = 98.

Yes, that's right, AVCT sampled 98;

AVCT = 96/98 = 98%

I will let you decide what this means.

Yes, he/she posted that yesterday. They also posted the following on the 14th;

20th I say.........was at HQ yesterday and the number just was there in plain sight! Just between you and I eh?

and;

20th .......just have this feeling

On the 6th;

Shackles off here and shackles off the "Goods Outwards" yard gate ......... : --))

and;

Busy today at Sand Hutton with lots of comings and goings. Obviously CFO happy with progress as bagged a few shares under a £1. Lots of stock still in the yard. Keeping dry hopefully during the brief snow storm over the A64. Had a brief chat with a delivery driver, who said he couldn't affirm what was his load. Offered him a kit-kat but still wouldn't say anything other than the route from Wetherby had been much busier than normal, with lockdown easing. Ah well back tomorrow for more Bielsa-like spying through the fence.

Awax was calling the 20th as far back as the 14th, so would appear to have some inside knowledge, which makes his recent post all the more intriguing.