Member Info for Wiggly

Someone mentioned the potential for AVCT to buy ABDX if the MC continued to drop. This is quite an interesting discussion as while I do not believe AVCT are (currently) in the market to purchase any manufacturing capacity, there are likely countless others that would very much be interested to acquire LFT production capabilities. It is a very hot market and the long term forecast looks exceptional;

"The lateral flow testing market is forecast to be worth $10.2bn by 2025, and Abingdon remains well-positioned to be the 'go-to' provider for high quality rapid tests."

What do you make of this trade from yesterday?

27-Apr-21 10:44:39 54.49843 796,000 Sell* 52.00 57.00 433.81k

Buy or sell I do not know but if you are playing with stakes as high as this (~£0.5m), I think you are unlikely to panic sell based on the content of yesterdays RNS?

As re-confirmed yesterday, ABDX remain on target to reach 150m LFT capacity during 2021. It looks likely that the AVCT will be the preferred sovereign test which could easily drive 100% of this capacity (could drive 10x more if ABDX were able to expand further) however regardless whether it will be AVCT or not, the demand for LFTs going forward will drive 100% of the ABDX capacity.

The ABC tests that were sold to the DHSC are being consumed by the DHSC. If the DHSC did not wish to pay they would have returned the tests to ABDX, or set them aside, they certainly would not consume them. For this reason, the outstanding invoices will certainly be settled so I see this as a bit of a non issue.

The 30%+ drop yesterday makes zero sense. ABDX look likely to be generating 10x their historic revenues over the next 12 months, so at 50m MC they look hugely undervalued following the drop yesterday.

Any guidance on what fair value looks like at 150m LFT capacity and all outstanding invoices settled? It has to be min 2 times higher than current?

Agree with this post. I also missed the boat however excited to be here and think we could see a min 2 bagger (150ish) by Summer.

RNS is basically a profit warning for the current financial year which ends May 21 (!!!), largely due to lack of payment from DHSC (which im 100% sure will be settled).

There is no change of guidance for the next financial year, starting June 2021, which will be dominated by production of the AVCT LFT (which is clinically validated with world leading results).

A very silly drop considering the above.

The Board therefore expects the results for FY21 will be substantially below the current market expectations"

Who really cares? FY 21 ends May, new financial year for ABDX starts June 1st. Need to be forward looking and the production of the best in class AVCT LFT will make this company.

Drop way overdone though. The issue with payment from DHSC will be sorted and future volumes/revenue will be driven by the AVCT test, which can drive 100% of existing capacity if they wish.

The legacy issues with the DHSC will be sorted. Abington have significantly expanded capacity and following CE mark of the AVCT test (due next week) they will sell everything they can make directly into Europe or UK. The drop/opportunity presented today is unreal.

Capacity expansion

Abingdon has made significant investment in high-throughput automation with a number of automated lines becoming operational in the third and fourth quarter 2020/1. This provides Abingdon with substantial manufacturing capacity and means Abingdon will remain well placed to support its own products, including the potential AbC-19™ rapid test demand referred to above, and its contract service customers' manufacturing requirements in the short-term and beyond.

"The Company is continuing its manufacturing expansion, after the successful completion of the first phase, in order to meet market demand for lateral flow testing. This expansion is not only for the AbC-19™ rapid test, but also for the expected demand from our contract service partners, both for COVID-19 and non-COVID assays. The lateral flow testing market is forecast to be worth $10.2bn by 2025, and Abingdon remains well-positioned to be the 'go-to' provider for high quality rapid tests."

Crazy drop that is not warranted.

For every month delayed with the validation of the UK Sovereign test there is >$1b of tax payers ££ flowing from UK to CHI NA (to purchase a sub standard test)! Where is the urgency from DHSC to put a stop to this madness?

I don't even think the low UK numbers is an excuse for delay. It is incompetence if no Sr management working within the DHSC validation team had the foresight to predict low/reducing case numbers as lock down in the UK began to take effect. Why didn't they set up parallel validations in multiple countries in order to ensure validation of UK tests were not delayed?

Is this shaping up to be a huge scandal? In response to the Huff article, AS mentioned the need to 'appropriately' validate.. The CV outside of the DHSC has delivered perfect results, hugely above anything that has been validated to date by the DHSC. Why have the DHSC been on a go slow with the AVCT validation? Why, when the UK has an objective to deliver as Sovereign test, have we been able to CV quicker outside of the UK? That in itself is a scandal.

GBP 295k.

26-Apr-21 09:25:30 247.00 60,000 Buy* 240.00 248.00 148.20k O ?

26-Apr-21 09:25:15 246.00 60,000 Buy* 240.00 247.00 147.60k O ?

I think you could be correct. I had expected a drift today but very strong start suggests otherwise.

Someone desperate to get in today. MM will take everything at the offer 241.

The strength today speaks volumes IMO!

AS is quite good at dropping subtle clues. I took this as a BIG ONE.

Would I be correct to assume that the news that Affidx detected the SA variant, which was hot off the press during the presentation last week, would have been news that came directly from DHSC, meaning the validation is currently active?

I guess the validation could drop at any point?

Can someone please share this post with Deeks

Worked with a number of partners, both disclosed and undisclosed!

Other UK manufacturers that we would hope to access, as well as overseas.

To give some guidance, he actually says volumes could EASILY reach 30m in UK, so I suspect UK will end up by far higher.