Member Info for Wiggly

When you read the contract GAD are doing for AVCT exactly what is contracted to do during Phase 1. I was 99% sure that AVCT was test of choice however I am now 100% sure.

Mart,

The following is the important bit;

obtain all necessary Product Authorisations for the lateral
flow tests to be manufactured and supplied to the Authority

This is exactly what GAD are doing for AVCT as AVCT is the test of choice!! Why else would GAD, a direct competitor of AVCT, be doing this.

NAILED ON AVCT IS THE TEST

Is that another £1b heading to GAD?

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W18/750321855

PL,

The gov wont be involved in our launch (unless we have been central to the development plan since day 1) but they will, according to ODX, announce the Sovereign test following the Scottish elections (which are taking place today). If we combine this date with the LFT announcement forecast tomorrow (ps - Bojo and MH love a Friday press conference) and combine with the fact that the first DPS award is also due tomorrow, then tomorrow looks like a key date.

If we combine this with AS 'very early May' then all could be linked.

It seems fairly obvious to me that news will come tomorrow. If what ODX said is correct regarding Gov restrictions (I guess it must be, as they claimed that was the reason for no announcement) which end today, then tomorrow makes sense. Also, just by coincidence, there is government announcements re LFTs.

Also, is the DPS contract award not planned for tomorrow ALSO?

nightmare,

Typically that is true, Big pharma wait until all is proved up prior to stepping in. But this is not a typical situation, with AVCT about to generate huge sums ($ billions is not unfeasible) thus any interested party has a decision to make fairly soon, or could cost them significantly more that they would wish.

Starbright,

Disagree with the following points;

1. The current register is dominated by PI’s, many of whom would try to hold out for fantasy prices (can you imagine this board??). Thus execution risk would be extremely high.

The exact opposite is true. Large PI base = easy takeover.

2. It’s an intellectual capital business. Without the active support and commitment of the scientists and others who make the business work, there is little value to an acquirer. The senior team would have to be 100% onboard before a takeover could proceed.

Also not true. Multiple 3rd party partnerships actively & independently assessing the Affimer IP and the Precision IP is at an advanced clinical stage.

We need strong II to prevent any T/O and secure fair value.

A2R,

No, no need for any rebranding of the LFT. In fact, I think any JV to support a fast tracked Nasdaq listing would be more focussed on synergies related to the Affimer + Precision platforms as a whole, not specific to Covid. The Covid LFT is just the massive bonus ball that will fund everything else, making any strategic investment such a compelling case (no II joining now will be obliterated via future placings, or forced to provide further funding to maintain their position, due to the cash generation that will follow over the next 12-24-36 months.).

Further cash could be raised via Nasdaq listing, at a much higher valuation than current MC. The US II would likely love to take a big stake in AVCT with confirmed Covid test revenues to drive expansion of the Therapeutics business.

Don't rule out some form of JV listing on the Nasdaq, which would be far quicker than if AVCT were to list themselves.

Stifel are doing some serious DD, so books are being cleaned for something.

Which leads to my next question, which I'd be grateful for any feedback. Lets assume the subject heading is correct, that the plan to list on Nasdaq is being accelerated.

How would it all play out and how would it impact our AIM shareprice?

My conclusion based on the news today is that the plan to launch on Nasdaq is being accelerated.

We have had some clues in recent times such as key appointments (experienced in Nasdaq listings) and references from AS himself, but this is now the biggest clue.

It has been mentioned before that currently AVCT is extremely vulnerable to a T/O. We need large sticky investors to prevent a cheap T/O. The value opportunity over the next 2 years, based on LFT sales and successful AVA6000 is so huge that unless we secure ourselves from T/O now we will not be able secure full value over the next 2 years.

CautiousOptimist,

Great point and aligns with my initial post. Instead of the 50/50 split on the 25m that I referenced, it would be 50/50 split on the 60m, giving AVCT 30m monthly volumes and Mol 30m monthly volumes (UK gov contracted) with AVCT able to expand beyond this number via additional capacity.

What was the rumour Myles and Emma leaked last week?

I think this makes a lot of sense.

The 'Test Architecture' that GAD were 'in an advanced state to manufacture' is very likely the Sovereign test architecture which was designed 'using standard / readily available / scalable components' so I think you are likely correct.

Based on above, the only possible outcomes are;

- AVCT, via GAD, will be supplying a replica of the Sovereign test (except with Affimers rather than Mabs, assuming AVCT is not selected as Sovereign test ) or;

- AVCT, via GAD, will be supplying a replica of the Mologic test (In reality, it wont be a replica of the Mologic test).

Considering the above, would it make sense for MOL/GAD to split production to produce LFTS using both Mabs and Affimers, both of which would be using the same LFT architecture ? If the plan is to maximise production, I cant see how switching the reagent would deliver efficiencies.

So based on the above, my conclusion now is that 100% AVCT are about to be awarded the Sovereign test.

The 'Test Architecture' that GAD were 'in an advanced state to manufacture' is very likely the Sovereign test architecture which was designed 'using standard / readily available / scalable components' so I think you are likely correct.

With +/- £8B about to be splashed by the UK Gov on LFT's, I think we will see large awards placed to secure both the AVCT Affidx + Mologic LFT, perhaps 50/50 volume split assuming that both can deliver the test at +/- GBP 5 per test. This approach ensures the Gov don't have all eggs in 1 basket and aligns with their public strategy to 'support the UK Dx industry'.

If AVCT have CONTRACTED capacity of 5m in place with BBI + Abington + GAD, I believe the remaining 25m, which is with the UK gov, will be split between Affidx and Mol, so I assume AVCT will have ~17.5m per month capacity in the UK alone.

The above would explain why MOL have supported AVCT, their direct competitor, with capacity, as both have been working in collaboration with UK gov for many months. Also recall both MOL and AVCT were central to the leaked Huff article.

If we are to believe ODX then the announcement on the Sovereign test will follow the elections on May 6th.

Very quiet here today. Quiet before the storm perhaps?

Here we do :)

Expected a soft open....bodes well for the day ahead!