Member Info for WetWater

Poods: Does this mean the possible end of the R/S discussion for FOG??

"This exercise in futility will die a nature death of sorts if and when the drill bit starts up for FOG"

If so that gives me another reason to look forward to the Kyalla well being spudded in 3 - 4 months :^)

Take care my friend - many of the ill-informed on this board will just have to agree to disagree about the benefits or lack thereof of a R/S for FOG. I guess some of us penny stock traders just can't be educated.

By the way, here's a hint - it's not 'if' but 'when' which is approaching rapidly. If you are still questioning whether the 2019 drilling season happens then you are about to be schooled.

As we move closer and closer to the initiation of the 2019 program I was expecting the price of Falcon to begin edging upwards. Instead it seem stuck at about .25 usd. Does this puzzle anyone else on this board? I am beginning to think the stock is being capped for some reason.

Call it a conspiracy theory but I keep thinking back to the Sweetpea/Petrohunter bankruptcy proceedings. From what I have heard, Petrohunter is scheduled to come out of bankruptcy in May. I don't know for a fact how it's estimated 60 million remaining shares of Falcon will be priced but I'm beginning to think that it might have to do with the average price of the stock over say the last quarter. It seems there is a limited amount of stock in the .24 - .245 range but the closer one gets to .25 stock seems to flow out of the woodwork - who is selling this stock and why so determined to keep it from rising? I am proposing that whoever is interested in buying Petrohunter 60 million shares is keeping a lid on the stock price until the bankruptcy court sets an official value for the stock.

OK - I'll now take my tinfoil hat off! In the mean time back up the truck boys - you can get all you want at sub .25 prices and if I'm correct that blue light special continues until sometime in May.

Poqfan - Commerciality takes the entire economics of the Beetaloo into consideration. It is not just based on a flow rate of a well. The Amungee NW-1H well in itself is not a commercial well - 1.10 Mmscf/d is nothing to get excited about - what makes it exciting is this test well has only a 600 meter frac job. I had discussions with our CEO as to why one can not just extrapolate the 600 meters into a required 3000 meter lateral - he said companies want to see actual rates for production well laterals (currently 3000 meters) which is what the 2020 drilling program will be about. Along with flow rate you have to look as the cost of the well to obtain that rate - thus part of the anticipation of the Kyalla. The Kyalla test well might come in at far less than 1.10 Mmcf/d for equivalent 600 meters of production but still be a much more commercial well because of the economics of shallower drilling and condensate in the gas. Then you have the deliverability component which we hope is not an issue with the apparent commitment of Jemena. I'm sure there are even more components such as the aerial extent of production, cost of labor, housing, water availability and water disposal, commodity pricing, etc., etc. etc.

I know that all things considered, the Amungee NW-1H well far exceeded the expectations of Falcon and Origin - that tells me that they likely think it is commercial class well being better than what they even anticipated. Dr. Close has said that the Kyalla has the potential to become the Beetaloo primary target - that tells me that if the Kyalla is successful then the Beetaloo take a huge step forward towards commerciality. If the Kyalla comes in strong and the stock doesn't pop I think we better be buying with both hands and feet as the commerciality of the Beetaloo will be a given.

Oilacountry99: Couldn't agree more with you post. Sounds like something I wrote with the exception of the $40 dream figure :^) I have been in the $2 - $3 camp all along. I have also said that if the Kyalla were to prove to be successful to the degree that it becomes the primary Beetaloo target then I move to the $4 - $5 target. If Falcon continues to participate in additional 4 or 5 appraisal wells for another year then I think we could move up to the $6 - $7 range. IMO I don't think Origin would be agreeable to continual appraisal wells after an additional year - at some point they need to begin monetizing their investment. Could Falcon become a $10, $20 stock - not without getting into the production and development business.

Schlemiel: As an interesting side-note to Hilcorp. Hilcorp is involved in a major way in Eagle Ford shale gas play in South Texas. This is the area the NT/Australia contingent visited on their recent U.S. trip. The Eagle Ford is a predominantly gas play just as the Beetaloo.

Is their CEO on the board in an advisory capacity or is he getting an inside peek at the Beetaloo's potential as a possible future partner of Origin? HilCorp is a $4 billion dollar company so they are not capable of taking out Falcon's interest in total but IMO they are looking to get involved in the Beetaloo in some form or manner.

From what I understanding of the relationship between Falcon and Cenkos we cannot expect any promotional pieces to be put out by them. The purpose of Cenkos is to facilitate Falcon/Phillip's introduction to some of the Cenkos institutions. Phillip has a good relationship with Cenkos and he hopes to use that relationship to open doors for him. Those relationships will take 6 - 9 months to 'mature' - I assume he is hoping to begin telling the story and by the time the 2019 Drilling program is getting tangible results the institutions will be familiar with Falcon and begin to support the stock.

If the Kyalla hft well is successful then we will pick up some updated evaluations and analysis from Davy and others. Its been a long two years but hopefully we are within 3-4-5 months of having another Beetaloo story to tell.

I was pleased with Phillip's terminology of the upcoming Kyalla well being an 'appraisal well' - the Shenandoah-1 had good shows in the Kyalla as did the Beetaloo W-1. Origin liked what they saw in both these vertical test wells so now comes the horizontal test well. This horizontal well is the equivalent to the Amungee N-1H appraisal well - here's hoping!!

While Orson may be correct in his best estimate of drilling resuming in July I am going to hang with what Phillip indicated several times in his interview January 21st which was just about 3 weeks ago - he said the water monitoring bores had been drilled and were now being monitored - with that information at hand he went on to say that Origin had plans to spud the first well in June. In that same interview POQ said the drilling program would run through the end of November.When in June? - he didn't say but I would predict a June spudding date and that Origin will be completing the planned drilling program prior to the next rainy season. I would expect we will know when the rig gets on location. All is good and on schedule until we hear otherwise :^)I also recall Gunner or Kirby(?) saying that there would be no new regulations or rules issued which would hold up or delay the planned drilling programs this year. I suspect Origin, Falcon, Santos, Pangaea and the APPEA would already know if the government were delaying/slow-playing drilling plans with new regulations - if that were the case we would already be hearing the roar.

Yep - Just because something is logical and makes sense doesn't count for much when you are dealing with government regulations. Either way, in 3-4 months drilling should commence.

Logically, since the water bore monitoring requirements do not apply to conventional wells then the six months of monitoring are a requirement of fracking a well. Here in the states, many times wells are drilled, rigs are moved off location and fracking the well may not happen for months/year. A rig is typically not on site nor required for the fracking of a well. That being the case the Ensign rig could be moved on to the next Velkerri wet gas test while the first Kyalla well is fracked.

Since drilling and fracking are two separate operations and water bore monitoring is a condition/concern of the fracking itself, then I would think the Ensign rig could be moved in and the well spudded as soon as weather conditions permit - regardless of the six month monitoring period - IMO

Thanks for the research schlemiel. That is very encouraging to see Canavan speaking about government assistance and cooperation in building out infrastructure. This will make the economics of Falcon's project even better - I smell commerciality around the corner.

Newtofo: I believe the 500 Tcf is taking in account the whole Beetaloo Sub Basin. Gunner mentioned that Australia uses a little more than 1 Tcf of gas a year so he must be talking about recoverable gas to come up with the 400 year figure. Remember that Origin's original estimates of Falon's permitted area was 85 Tcd of recoverable gas. Citigroup later came back with a 100 Tcf recoverable figure.

We don't have to have 500 Tcf of recoverable gas! Look at the offshore production Gunner referred to - a major natural gas resource for Australia with 36 Tcf of recoverable gas. Based on the Citigroup estimate, our Falcon acreage has 2 1/2X the recoverable gas as the total offshore production - pretty amazing. If you really want to extrapolate, Falcon's net recoverable gas is just shy of the total offshore production. And as you so rightly pointed out, that is not taking into account the two shale horizons to be tested in the 2019 drilling program - one of those shales being the one that Close described its potential by saying - the Kyalla could be constrained only by the ability to deliver to market - not by the amount of gas.

And here we sit at usd.25/share - go figure!!

This abc.net article is in direct response to Falcon and Origin's planned 2019 drilling program targeting the Kyalla and Velkerri wet gas plays (the Kyalla wet gas only exist on Falcon's acreage). Statements by the government leaders indicate the Beetaloo is very important to Australia, everything is running on schedule and no new regulations or restrictions will be added. Matt Doman's statement as liquids rich gas being a cherry on the cake is the reason Falcon/Origin 2019 drilling season is targeting the potential liquids rich areas - if successful these areas will become the new targets of the Beetaloo concession - if not, Oh well, we will just have to go back north developing 6.6 Tcf/ resources/well in the Velkerri B dry gas zone - life is full of tough choices ??

"In December last year Origin Energy told investors that this dry season it would carry out an appraisal "targeting liquids rich gas" in the Kyalla and Velkerri rock formations in the Beetaloo Basin in the middle of 2019". Falcon Oil and Gas last month said that along with dry gas, it would assess the potential of the liquids-rich Kyalla and Velkerri formations."

The Federal government even goes so far as to say the Beetaloo is IMPORTANT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY.

The New Northern Territory's Resource Minister Paul Kirby said:
He did not expect new regulations to be any impediment to the resumption of exploration within a few months.

"There won't be any regulation that will impede people's progress, the companies will be able to progress, and start exploration over the coming months, as long as they have met all the requirements that they need to meet,"

The APPEA (industry group) executime Matt Doman said "
"liquids could be a cherry on the cake of a gas operation."

"Liquid-rich gas brings with it additional revenue streams, and increases the royalty streams that would go to the Government. We're keen to ascertain whether that is a potential here," he said.

Mining company says it’s gas they want, not oil

A mining company has hit back at claims the search for onshore gas in the Northern Territory is a veiled attempt to drill for oil.

On the eve of another anti-fracking rally in Darwin this Sunday, Lock the Gate Alliance claimed mining companies were intending to frack for oil.

Companies such as Origin Energy and Santos have begun exploratory programs again in the Beetaloo Basin south of Katherine after the NT Government last year removed a moratorium on development of onshore shale gas industries.

The companies say they have already found enormous supplies of the gas locked in shale rock deep underground but had no intentions of drilling for oil.

Lock the Gate’s Jesse Hancock today said the mining companies wanted to extract “liquids rich gas”.

“Fracking companies can call it by any name they want but it’s shale oil, and oil presents a much greater risk to communities, especially in terms of transportation,” Mr Hancock said.

“This is a case of resource companies and the NT Gunner Government pulling the wool over the eyes of NT residents.

“Communities at the frontline of this activity in the Beetaloo Basin - in the heart of the NT - are rightfully anxious about what this latest development means for them.”

But Origin Energy said the group had simply misunderstood the phrase “liquids rich gas”.

“Origin is not drilling or fracking for oil. There is no basis to these claims,” Origin senior external affairs manager Chris Zipf said.

“Liquids rich gas’ is gas that presents in the form of a liquid as it comes to the surface as pressure and temp changes – not oil.

“The rigorous processes and controls we have in place – including those being applied following the Pepper Inquiry - are no different whether the source is predominantly natural gas or ‘dry gas’ - or liquid rich.

“The liquids are the next step up in the molecule chain - ethane and propane which is LPG or bottled gas; butane which is used as fuel in lighters or condensate.

“As the gas comes towards the surface the pressure and temperature changes. The heavier molecules above methane can either stay as gas or begin to form a liquid (hence the term ‘liquids rich natural gas’), which is clear and not black like oil.

“A simple analogy would be a hot shower, the steam (gas) condenses to water (liquids) as it cools.

“Gas being produced in off-shore fields and processed in the NT are liquids rich.”

Just a paranoid thought on SA. Might this be an attempt to use the accusation as an excuse to start a process to reclaim the permitted area from Falcon. Maybe some other entity that paid the bribes wants Falcon's prime permitted area in the Karoo. If there is no truth behind the accusation then there is still a reason it was made.

I will probably be long gone before SA's potential is ever realized in the Karoo - therefore I don't really give a damn - I won't lose any sleep over this dust up.

Chief Minister Michael Gunner with his newest Cabinet minister, Member for Port Darwin, Paul Kirby. Mr Kirby will take on the primary industries and resources portfolios.

Schlemiel: Here's hoping you are correct in that Kirby has been tamed and will toe the line. To put an anti-fracker ETU organizer in charge of resources at this stage of unconventional shale development wouldn't have been my first choice but looks like we got him!

Schlemiel: This appears to basically be a reprint of POQ's recent Falcon release. Its nice that it shows up in the NT News and has Falcon's name plastered throughout. Let the news flows begin!

Surely CM Gunner would not install former ETU organizer Paul Kirby as resource minister. Not likely even though Kirby said he has changed his tune and now supports fracking. Nothing good would come out of trusting the future of fracking with this guy - regardless of change of heart!

Member for Port Darwin Paul Kirby was voted into Cabinet by the Labor caucus on Tuesday, replacing former minister Ken Vowles, who was one of three Labor members to be expelled from caucus along with Mr McConnell and Jeff Collins.

His elevation will bring about a reshuffle to fill the vacant portfolios of Aboriginal affairs and primary industry and resources.
Tuesday’s caucus meeting was the first time the 15-member group met since it voted to eject the rebel trio last month.
Member for Sanderson Kate Worden will take up Mr Kirby’s position as Labor whip.
It won’t be revealed until Wednesday what portfolios Mr Kirby will hold.
He said on Tuesday he had no preference.
It’s unlikely Mr Kirby will take up the resources portfolio given his history as an organiser for the ETU.
The union is rabidly opposed to fracking and would put Mr Kirby in an awkward position given Labor’s support for the gas industry.
Mr Kirby said the decision to lift Labor’s former moratorium on fracking followed some “robust debates”.
But he said he was now “absolutely” in support of his Government’s pro-fracking stance.
Mr Kirby acknowledged he would likely cop some flak from his former union comrades.
“It’s a very divisive issue, people all through the Territory and Australia have different opinions on (fracking),” he said.
Mr Kirby’s appointment comes after Mr Vowles, who was sacked late last month, warned the new minister would need to be submissive and obedient.

Schlemiel: You and others that provide fresh data are the primary reason I and I suspect others frequent this board. I have always told fellow investors that this board is a fantastic resource for anything and everything Falcon. If something happens in the world that pertains directly or indirectly to our investment it tends to find its way to this Lse board - Thanks to you and all others that make this an important daily stop and bookmark for my Falcon investment.

Schlemiel/Nerves: A big thinks is owed to both you guys. This is the type of coverage Falcon needs/deserves. This and other articles of its type will get the word out on our little company. Let the good times roll!

Thanks again to both of you.

Falcon/Origin has drilled the water monitoring bores and current monitoring has begun. After six month's of monitoring fracking processes can begin (My assumption is that six months monitoring is prior to fracking and not drilling).

After 2 long years, we are officially off and running - roads and other infrastructure work is also under way.