Member Info for WetWater

Newtofo: I just reread your question and realized I didn’t answer your question. I asked POQ at the meeting if there was anything to the rumors of Origin wanting out of its E&P business. He said from everything he is seeing Origin is moving full speed ahead with the Beetaloo - they are fully committed.

Newtofo - yes, it has been stated a couple of times that Origin will be selling part of their interest. Whether that is when Falcon sells or not is unknown. The Beetaloo is too large of a project for Origin to keep/develop/pay for 70% of the project. If they can get say China to buy a portion then in effect they get a portion of their reduced percentage paid for. IMO, there will be a consortium of companies involved in its development - it just too much acreage.

As I understand it, Origin has 500 square kilometers permitted for development in the NT. That doesn’t sound like much but as I understand it that will be years worth of development. There is no way they can economically develop 4.6 million acres all by themselves. IMO I don’t believe there is anyway that any one company could develop even Falcon’s 30% of the concession.

While I’m speculating I will add that I would not be surprised to see Santos back in the picture. Dr Close knows more about the Beetaloo any other person. He has stated that the Falcon permits lie at the sweet spot of the Beetaloo. Santos has drilled a Velkerri well to the east of our lease. It is a great well but is dry gas and 4,000 meters deep so the economics aren’t what Falcon’s permits offer. Close was very excited about the wet gas and shallow shale of the Kyalla - they may be a potential buyer at some point - especially if the Kyalla proves out.

Sandydune. Nobody lined up to my knowledge. He is a wanting to get as far into the project<br /> As possible before contacting any potential buyer. Doesn’t want any offers while stock is cheap

Questions not questionable:^) sorry

I wasn’t counting heads but there were probably 25 - 30 in attendance. I asked POQ how many were stockholders and he said all but 3-4 in the audience were stockholders. I couldn’t name who they were other than three or so from the board and one other that follows the board but does not post.

The formal part of the meeting consist of three separate votes and was probably 5 minutes long. The balance of the meeting was a corporate presentation followed by many questionable which lasted a good while. As I have said it was all a positive meeting - I think we have lots to look forward to.

Not discussed other than to say the further we get into the drilling programs the higher the expected price. I will say that everyone needs to be realistic on expectations. 9 wells on a 4.6 million acre project has its limitations on value. Personally I am expecting $2-$3 /share at sale if things go through 2020 drilling program. I know some expect much more but when you consider how many billions of dollars it will take to make a dent in the Beetaloo wells/infrastructure we can’t expect too much on our 9 well carry. Of course just my opinion. I would gladly be proven wrong. I know that POQ is wanting to be in a position to look the buyers in the eye when it comes time to sell - he is not interested in having any third party negotiate any sale - he will demand the best price out there. His negotiations after Hess s hows he is a good poker player IMO.

Another discussion at the AGM. After the 2020 drilling program any negotiation for sell will likely take 6-9 months to consummate. At that point it will be necessary for Falcon to raise additional fund to participate in their 30% JV cost. Falcon can not afford to go “non consent” on any additional wells Origin will be drilling at that point. There very likely will be a raise prior to a sell if any sell happens after the 2020 program. Any funds raised/spent would be priced into the sell price. Any raise at that point would cause minimal dilution to shareholders.

For those of you predicting bankruptcy of Falcon you will be disappointed. Falcon said they had funds to carry themselves through the 2020 program and that includes the 2% ORI option execution.

Another point made - don’t be tempted to sell stock prior to any final offer if you want to maximize your gains. Traditionally the final sell price in these type of deals exceeds the share price prior to the final sale.

I feel more positive about Falcon and the Beetaloo than I have in a long time. It’s just going to require a bit more patience to let the 2019 program play out . It was predicted that there would be a lot more smiles at next years AGM.

Also do not be concerned about all the noise of the traditional owners ruckus. Origin will be very diplomatic about the situation but at the end of the day there are legal agreements in place with the Land Council for things to proceed on schedule.

That’s about it for now. I’ll let ribittoad fill in with other details.

Sorry - working on an iPad - didn’t mean to close the previous post.

...some potential left untested. If the vertical looks successful then they will follow up with a horizontal test well. If the vertical does not look promising then they will move the rig back up south of the Amungee well and do a step out to prove up more Velkerri B dry gas. That way they will end 2019 on a positive note. The results of the second well should be known around the end of October or first of November prior to the AGM. POQ said these wells will be material to Falcon but not so much so for Origin. Falcon will therefore be able to release the test results as things proceed without having to wait for Origin to make a release. He expects lots of news releases surrounding the 2019 program. If the Kyalla proves as successful as they hope then the 2020 wells will probably be Kyalla horizontal test Of course if the Velkerri B wet gas looks great that will probably be in the 2020 program.

Cenkos has lots of connections to the institutional market in London. They can offer Falcon many introductions and credence to their institutional base. POQ plans to start promoting Falcon to institutions as the 2019 drilling program moves forward. He hopes to have the stock price up by the end of 2019.

POQ presented exciting data on the predicted commodity price of gas in the Beetaloo. The moratorium has worked in our favor for potential gas price increases. He also presented the ever increasing demand for gas by China - China has to have huge amounts of gas going forward as they convert from coal to gas fired plants. - the Beetaloo will offer that gas.

Was a good meeting. Nothing earthshatteringother than some clarification on relationships, the 2019 drilling program, Cenkos clarification, etc. I will let ribbittoad work up his report and fill in where necessary.

I found clarification of the 2019 program very informative. There are three wells planned for this next year. The first will be a Kyalla horizontal test in the area of the Beetaloo W-1. There are very high expectations that this well will be successful - previous data on gathered on the Kyalla gives Origin/Falcon a lot of confidence of this well will be a successful test. Results of this well will likely be available around the July timeframe. Next there is a Velkerri B wet gas test on the southern edge of the concession. This vertical well will be a bit more of an unknown but Origin/Falcon needs to test this shale as they d ont want to leave some potential

SandyDune: I have smelled a rat ever since this guy came on board. To hold the shares he proclaims to have and then make some statements he makes just doesn't make sense Even previous to his POQ statements he seemed unfamiliar with Falcon's history or business plan. I heavily discount all his repetitive hyperbole.

As to BO, his statement about Origin never being stopped from exploring just speaks volumes to his judgement. We all know that the moratorium put a halt to all HFT wells/permits. Possibly a vertical well could have been drilled but then what if the moratorium wasn't lifted? Origin hasn't wiggled out of anything. POQ told me in June 2017 that the clock was not running on the Origin contract while the moratorium was in place - only makes perfect sense except to BO. If Origin is making all attempts to live up to their end of the contract be assured Falcon isn't going to go looking for a lawsuit or bad PR for being hard to work with.

To date nothing has changed with our investment. Don't let comments of these two be unsettling. We may have the ORI issue to deal with the next year - Falcon/Origin will deal with it in a competent manner.

I am planning on going to the AGM but rest assured I will not be espousing these two guys points. IMO BOs and PDs thinking that additional stock options this year are going to have a material effect on the dilution of Falcon stock just shows they don't appreciate the potential of the end game. Stock options are issued/stock options expire - its part of the compensation of management _ I hope management makes a fortune off of them!

Hmmm! Didn't know Phillip has been around for the last 10 years. Learn something everyday I guess - certainly about some posters.

Camelot1 - I agree with you that POQ is likely getting his ducks in a row as a result of the second overriding royalty option and its timing. I wouldn't expect any raise to happen until after the completion of the 2019 drilling program - the next two wells hold a lot of potential for Falcon which could result in a higher price of the stock, thus less dilution. I suspect that the market is associating the Centos engagement with this upcoming raise thus the recent price weakness.

We all expected some type of raise would be required to purchase the ORI - I was just hoping it would come later rather than sooner. This new second ORI has likely moved up the timing on this. My question now is if Falcon raises enough to cover both ORI purchases or try to just cover the Nov purchase at this time. I don't even pretend to know how this works or the expense to Falcon to raise these funds - it may make sense to raise enough to complete both ORI purchases.

Just my opinion but I still think Falcon will wait until completion of the 2020 program before deciding to participate in any additional exploration wells -Therefore I don't think any decision on that raise would be made anytime soon.

The picture may be worth a 1000 words but it doesn't even start to describe why you, I and others are still invested in this stock.

Curious to see what might come out in the next few weeks. If Origin truly wants out of E&P then I am thinking something is announced prior to what could be coordinated annual meeting schedules. It was rumored Origin wanted the divestiture done by December - if so then things are certainly being discussed. Maybe that is just wishful thinking but that is about all we have at this point. If Origin is still in the game then we 'only' have 6 more months before drilling season :^( Guess that's much better than where we were when the moratorium was announced.

Patiently waiting!

I find myself agreeing with Poods on his comments. As I have pointed out before, Origin is the operator and as such controls any news coming out of those operations. Yes, Origin has to provide Falcon with the data and Falcon likely has some say over some aspects but Origin is basically driving the train as to when that news can be released. POQ does in fact have his hands tied as to releasing news regarding the Beetaloo's operations. For that reason you won't see POQ on any roadshows until he has new news in hand. I am hopeful that the coinciding AGMs of Falcon and Origin might mean there is some news to be released prior to those meetings - just my opinion.

If any are planning to attend the Annual Meeting you will need to let Falcon know ahead of time. There are restrictions that need to be met and from what I understand some of those are based on how the stock is held, etc.. I found out today that the CFO is out of the office until Oct 1st - she will be the one to provide necessary information.

Poods - Yes "S___ happens" I guess I tend to see the glass as half full. I am not a PE, geologist or in the oil business 'anymore' - I was a partner in drilling rigs and oil field related machine shops, downhole tools, etc. back in the bust of the 80's - So yes I know from personal experience that "Sh__ Happens!"

Its important to point out as Nano and others have that this is not a sure thing but on the other hand Falcon comes with some pretty amazing potential rewards. There are worst positions to be in than fully carried for the next 4-5 wells with sufficient cash to see our way through that carry. Lets just not paint this investment pitch black with the doom and gloom with all the 'possible' things that could go wrong.

If this 2019 drilling program (as already announced) proves successful then we are in great shape. If not so successful then as POQ indicated, it's not all bad news as then we would know where and what not to concentrate on in the 2020 drilling season. He is as optimistic as I am :^)

Anyway, I guess I am the eternal optimist of the board - maybe we compliment each other. If this works out the way you and I hope then we will all go away happy. If not then oh well - been there before!

Some on this board seem to be predicting apocalyptic floods, famine and other doomsday scenarios. From ‘precarious cash positions’ to bankruptcy, to tight holes. Everyday exploration operations appear to be dire and foreboding – fraught with risk and ominous consequences.

It’s amazing how Origin is going ‘tight hole’ when they haven’t drilled but one HFT which they announced to be a discovery as required by the NT government. Origin, thru the Falcon farm-out, has 4.6 million acres in the middle of nowhere, yet according to some are going to go ‘tight hole’ for exactly what reason and on what ‘hole’? Lord knows they have more acreage than they will ever require and are certainly not in the market to acquire more. If as some reports indicate that Origin wants out of the oil & gas business then Origin is going to be promoting the hell out of the Beetaloo – not trying to keep it under secretive wraps.

Falcon is for all purposes fully carried for the next two drilling seasons and cash flow is being managed very effectively yet Nostradamus predicts the company is in a very precarious cash position? He adds that while our leaders can assure us financial results are accurate that does not mean much at this point. – Huh?? Is the sky falling? Are we on the edge of the proverbial cliff? – Nope - We are in the oil business and being fully carried for the next two years – plenty of time to panic going forward. IMO Falcon is currently in the ‘catbirds’ seat – far from the awful situation some would have us in. If one can’t stomach the uncertainty of the oil business, they better find another investment.

I was glad to see some of the recent post deleted from this board as some were getting a little too personal and carried away with themselves – hopefully the coordinated (?) Falcon and Origin AGMs will give us some news to refocus the board.

Thats our story and we are sticking to it! Origin maintains it is full steam ahead for the Beetaloo:

Origin, whose Beetaloo shale gas prospect stands to benefit from the Northern Territory’s decision to open up parts of its land for drilling, said it is continuing its highly prospective exploration and appraisal program.

“We are currently working hard to meet the government’s preconditions,” Origin said. “Doing so will allow us to resume our drilling activity in the Beetaloo Basin in 2019.”

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/origin-energy-turns-corner-on-power-prices-as-fresh-renewable-energy-supply-expected-by-2020/news-story/444d7c060d4d976d3dca8523cbe7d7ac?nk=e39d21e301b043f2f804082acda4bc47-1536958029

I would imagine Falcon will be coming out with a statement very shortly. Some stories have Origin completing the divestiture by December - if that is true then my money says there is already a deal in the works and that might very possibly be Dr. Close and Santos. Origin can't just walk away without finding a suitable replacement for their interest in the Beetaloo farm-in. We don't know how the contract reads but I am sure Falcon would be happy with Santos as a potential partner and I would think Falcon's approval is needed in some regard.

Origin or whomever better meet the 2020 Stage three completion date or they might find themselves in Hesse's shoes.

Can't wait to see Falcon's response to this news.

This will be disruptive for the Beetaloo but Falcon could possibly end up with 100% of the project. Now we know why Dr Close likely left Origin - could there already be a buyer of Origin's interest waiting in the wings (Santos?) Unless written into the contract, if Origin defaults and does not live up to its farm out agreement, then everything could revert back to Falcon. This also might explain the price weakness in Falcon the last couple of months.<br /><br />Lets see what develops! Could prove very interesting.