Member Info for WetWater

Market Makers lining up - Word must have got out on bigones :)

Empire: What a mess - sounds like the CEO/Board are at odds with the stockholders.. Glad we don't have those squabbles within Falcon. Also thankful Falcon doesn't have any debt - makes corporate life much easier.

I assume that signing a rig contract for the 2019/2020 drilling seasons and announcing that Falcon back to business is a nice message for the stockholders - I know I was glad to hear that message.. In between the lines I took it to mean the regulations are on track and I doubt Origin would have contracted rigs if it felt they weren't needed. In my book all is well and our share price should build going forward. I personally was in the market today with my finger on the buy button. We just need to get the daytraders out of the way.

I think our recent 60% run-up was based on the news that was released - the market bought the rumor and sold the news - nothing new there.

I don't want our CEO creating news releases out of nothing but IMO I think this recent release was well timed and newsworthy.

Go Falcon!

Poods - Since I first addressed the Bruner/Petrohunter deal I wanted to respond. I haven't heard anything one way or the other. I will let the board know if I get a clarification or update..

I suspect the increased selling is just the profit taking from the quick runup.

Well said Newtofo. I want to happily correct you on a glaring mistake :^) - The 1968 Km2 represents only about 11% of the estimated 95% ariel extent of the Velkerri - not 25%. I have roughly heard 1/8 used in the past or 12.5%. What's a percent or so in the big picture!

POQ told me a couple of years ago that an additional Velkerri B well could potentially prove up about 30% of the lease - I guess maybe with a far enough step-out that could be the case. Anyway you look at it Falcon is way undervalued when you look at the seismic, the vertical test wells and the Amungee hft discovery. I keep buying stock - Falcon looks like a gift even if the Kyalla and Velkerri wet gas don't pan out. With literally 15 - 20 TCFs (could be more) of gas I am betting that the Velkerri B alone will make for a commercial discovery.

Not bragging as I am sure some on here hold larger positions than I do, but I would have a hard time unloading and reloading my position for a few pennies profit. Like you, as sure as I sold down my position here would come some random offer out of the blue that would run the stock up. I am happy sitting on my position and waiting for the payday at the end of project. I'll leave the daytraders to there approach. Whatever price happening between now and the end game is just noise in my opinion.

GLA

Maybe someone can put their hands on the whole Davy report (assuming Pentantt's post was not the entire 5 page report). I would be curious to see Davy's comments on the project at this point.

Davy's 31p evaluation was computed on the baseline value per acre of $10,500 (for the 2C 1968 Km2) and $250 for the balance of the acreage. This 31p evaluation was after a discount for exploration/appraisal and a development risk - in their evaluation these were 66% and 80% respectively. It is my understanding that the project was then discounted another binary 50% based on the outcome of the moratorium.

Now that the moratorium has gone away, Davy should recapture that 50% discount and then we are back to their 60p figure. What is not in their computation are the Kyalla and Velkerri wet gas plays - It is too early to assign any value to these two potential outcomes.

So - We have a very promising 2019 drilling season that can enhance Davy's current 60p valuation. If one or both of these 2019 targets are successful then our valuation increases dramatically. If both these were unsuccessful then Origin will end the 2019 drilling season with a step out well to the Amungee well. Assuming that meets Origin's expectations we end up with another 2000+ Km2 2C resources - if you value that at the same $10,500/acre then suddenly Falcon's .60p Davy valuation jumps to about double - or about $1.55 usd in my rough calculation.

So...... on the 'downside' with a successful Amungee stepout we may be looking at $1.55. If the Kyalla and Velkerri wet gas is successful we could be looking at that or more at the end of the project. If Falcon comes back with two additional 3000 meter horizontal wells in either of the three plays in 2020 one can then assume the valuation grows even larger. This is how I arrive at my $2 - $3 valuation - of course the soon to be tested Kyalla and Velkerri wet gas plays could elevate my expectations even higher. There are a lot of assumptions in my thinking but be assured - there are exciting times ahead.

Why do you always try to put a negative spin on everything? Of course it is a 'forced step forward" - its called doing business; its called getting your ducks in a row; its called planning. Here in the Basin rigs are contracted out years in advance - it just the cost of doing business! Is there a penalty to breaking a contract? - I'm sure there is - that would be a customary thing. I suspect Origin has a much better feel for things going forward than even you do - I think I will place my bets with them.

I understand the train is leaving the station without you. I understand your frustration. I'm afraid your sub .19 usd price is in all likelihood a thing of the past. The closer we get to the June drilling program the more likely the share price will firm up. Lets just say I wouldn't want to be in your shoes right now. If I was a betting person which in this case I am, I see you being left holding an expired ticket in one hand and your ***k in the other.

That is a pretty amazing video. I have heard how they skid rigs here in the Permian Basin but this rig literally walks from one hole to the next. What a coincidence that this same rig shows up on youtube.

I'm still not clear from POQ's video but it sounds like Origin will drill a vertical well and then use that same hole to whip out and drill the lateral for the horizontal. He talks about 2 wells with technically 4 holes but IMO the last 2 will be directional drilling out of the vertical into the horizontal targeted zone. Once again pretty amazing technology when you consider the depths and the challenges.

As POQ stated - Full Steam Ahead - Great news for Falcon shareholders.

I wanted to emphasize a couple of things from the CEO video:

1) The upcoming Kyalla liquid rich test is more akin to an appraisal well as the Beetaloo W-1 was the Kyalla test well. There is more know about the Kyalla than has been publicized - as I was told there is a 90% certainty of this well being successful --- That still leaves 10% failure risk but I like those odds.

2) Continuous news releases can be expected beginning in June. This is what POQ mentioned at the AGM - in his words we will tire of all the news releases on the upcoming 2 wells this drilling season. That will be a change from the past church mouse quietness of this company!

Congratulations All - This is a huge step forward. The next 2 years will prove to be much more eventful than the last two :^)

Naminanu - I've told you what I have been hearing - you can interpret it the way you want. Some of this story came from reliable sources but I have not seen anything in writing. I know there is an element of truth to the story and so it wouldn't make sense that Sweetpea continues its liquidation. We do know for a fact that Sweetpea is a 6.6% owner of Falcon - You can watch that stockholder's position going forward and get the answer to your question.

Naminanu: Sorry but as I stated that was second/third hand information - I have no link to a news article. This is something I have been hearing for some time and I was glad to see Falcon announce Sweetpea as a 6.6% owner. They have held that stock all along but something triggered that announcement. I feel like that 'something' may have been the official change from a 7 to an 11 but that is pure speculation on my part. As I mentioned, don't take any of the Bruner/Sweetpea information too literally as I haven't seen anything in writing. The takeaway is that the selling pressure of those liquidations are for now off of Falcon.

Nerves: I have the same question. I am holding a few Petrohunter shares myself. If Sweetpea/Petrohunter is now in chapter 11 one would think we should have some hope of an increased valuation going forward. I heard the guys in charge of Sweetpea misrepresented the liabilities of the company (to them I assume?) and were selling Falcon stock to fund the chapter 7 and I begin repaying the false claims - lining their pockets. When Bruner found out what was happening to the shares he entrusted to these crooks he hired lawyers, flew to Switzerland and the outcome was the bankruptcy judge threatened these guys with jail time if they didn't replace the illegally sold share and the judge changed the bankruptcy to a Chapter 11. I assume that is when Falcon relisted this 6.6% shareholder. Don't take any of this too literally as it is coming second/third hand. The important thing in all of this is that the incessant selling of Falcon is now off its back and hopefully we see the stock acting more positively going forward.

I believe the upcoming news release by Origin/Falcon should lend some stability and support to the stock. I feel very positive about Falcon's price action going forward - but based on my track record................... :^)

Schlmiel: I am still only letting myself think in the $2 -$3 dollar range at the time of the sale. The Kyalla might change that but I just feel the remoteness of the Beetaloo is going to make it very expensive for infrastructure and development which means a big, big discount of assets. Hope I am proven wrong but in this case I would rather be wrong than disappointed. Whatever price we get will be out of our hands but if Falcon has multinationals, supermajors, majors etc. bidding for Falcon's assets I think we will get a fair price whatever that might be.

Warning - Promotion Ahead: Speaking of Bruner, he is starting a new company called Fortem Resources - a Canadian and US listed company. Shows huge promise if anyone is interested. 1st 4 wells scheduled for February with a Nasdaq listing also scheduled for February. Acreage sufficient to drill 1000 low tech, cheap and easy to drill wells offsetting very productive Canadian heavy oil acreage. If you are a Bruner fan you might check into it.

Free what I understand Bruner got the Petrohunter bankruptcy changed from a Chapter 7 to a Chapter 11 but not before 20 million shares were liquidated. There may be a chance the court will require the illegally sold shares to be repurchased. Anyway, we can thank Bruner for stopping the relentless selling pressure since the moratorium.

This is just a WAG but from what I understood Phillip was going to begin his presentations to the Cenkos institutions after the first of the year. Possibly some of the increased volume/price is a result of those contacts. He expected those relationships would take 6-9 months to fully develop but maybe some institution decided to dip their toe in the water.

I am still expecting some type news release soon - I don't have any hard date but expect something in January. I expect that news to center around the drilling program being on schedule as are the NT government regulations.

Whatever the reason for this price/volume jump it is nice to see Falcon coming back to life. Congratulations to all.

Ye of little faith :)

Newtofo: I call this counting our blessings! The stars are aligning and soon the market will begin to see what we see. I don't have a price expectation for the next month - this stock seems to always prove me wrong when I put a price on it. Falcon was priced much higher before the moratorium was released - I would look for it to go back to that area once we get closer to drilling but then I thought the stock would be about .50 - 60 usd about now. Oh well - Our time will come. Falcon's price is going to be determined by the value of its appraised assets - anything between now and then is just noise which I believe will be lower than the final sale value.

Nice to see the price movement in Falcon. As mentioned last week, I have heard from two separate sources that there are news releases coming in the next couple of weeks.. I don't know what caused this immediate price jump but it should be reinforced and sustained by the upcoming news announcements - If I was guess I would say positions are being acquired prior to news releases.

IMO Falcon is the least promoted stock in the world. Looking at the current penny price you would never know Falcon is set to participate in drilling 3 JV wells in one of the top major world class natural gas discoveries in the world. It won't take much promotion/news to blow the lid off this stock. After 2 years of price frustration it looks like the tide is turning. Congratulations to all.

I don't recall my college Geology 101 course covering interbedded siltstones and mudstones with minor sandstones nor the study of late maturity gas from the thermal cracking of retained oil and bitumen! I do know from looking at the aerial extent of the Kyalla shale that the targeted area does not extend as far northeast as the Amungee wells so I guess the 2 to 3%wt TOC doesn't cut the mustard :)

What little I know about the SIGMA seismic interpretation, I liked page 16 of the Paltar report showing the extent of the Velkerri and Kyalla shale fairways - looks like Falcon is sitting in a very sweet position if the Kyalla lives up to expectations. Nothing like stacked plays to make our Falcon 30% supersexy!

Greenlanternen64: I agree that the government regulations are the biggest unknown at this point. With that said, I know Origin and Falcon have stated publicly the regs are running on schedule and will not be a problem or hindrance to the 2019 program. If POQ comes out and releases a news release that the regulations are on schedule and will not hold up drilling this season would you and others believe him? - I suspect many would still continue to question such a statement. Mark your calendar - You will soon have a choice to make on whether you believe Origin/Falcon's assurance that drilling will begin on schedule.

With all that is on the line with the NT budget, jobs, economy and the Feds the last thing Gunner would except is another year's delay is drilling. We have the gas industry waiting on go for this dry season.- Gunner has said he wanted the regs completed in time for the oil industry to begin planning for this coming drilling season. IMO the regulators meet the established deadline.

Camelot1:

1) I have previously explained the reasoning behind Cenkos - it is primarily to open doors to Cenkos' London based investment institutions. Cenkos is very well respected and they have an established relationship with POQ. He wants to begin developing those relationships which he said would take 6-9 months. IMO, promoting to these institutions is not equivalent to shopping Falcon around for a potential buyer which will require a very large well capitalized company. The purpose of the Cenkos connections is to build interest in the stock which should help us all over the next 12 months.

2) The current price is why he doesn't want to create interest from a buyer at this point - the stock is too cheap and a lowball bid would be considered material and have to legally be presented to the board/stockholders. POQ has said he wants to at least get through the 2019 season before he has to field any type of bid for the company. If the stock is .20 cents a $.75 - $1.00 bid looks pretty attractive to some. If the stock is $1.00 - $1.25 then it makes it easier to get higher bids if he has to deal with that. Ideally POQ and the board want to get through the 2020 season with an appraisal of the assets in hand before any bids are actively solicited or entertained.

3) The CEO feels he has enough money to carry us through the 2020 program and the ORI options - I personally think that as you said that would be cutting it pretty thin. I am not too concerned even at that - Falcon knows what their cash flow needs are as to the timing and amounts of cash required - those needs are not going to sneak up on them and of course the longer they can put off a raise the more likely the stock price will be higher and less dilution. Falcon is not a normal business model - they just need enough cash to carry the company through a sell - being an accountant and the CEO, I'm sure POQ has a good grasp on cash flow needs. He has said if we need to raise cash due to continued operations if Origin continues to drill past our carry he will be doing a raise through one means or another.

You are going to soon see POQ beginning to do some promotions and news releases once the Kyalla test begins. I do know that he is planning on some type of announcements within the next 30 days or so - I think those are going to be updates on where the 2019 program currently stands, the status of the government regulations, cash-flow and condition, etc. I can tell you from what I hear everything is going great - POQ needs to get the word out and reassure the market that all is well - I suspect that will be the focus of any releases. That in turn should support the stock price.

Thanks for the kind words on the post - I have never tried to mislead or misrepresent anything I know regarding Falcon. If I knew of any negatives I would be the first to expose those. This last week I bought another 6 digits of stock - digits - not dollars :) so I believe in the Falcon s

Origin: I’m not concerned about cash unless the ORI option comes into play - even then we are easily good through 2019 and into 2020. That picture will clear up in time but nothing that we Should be concerned with at this point. Falcon has a well laid out business plan - we should just relax and watch it play out. If the 2019 drilling season is successful then we will be on the home stretch. We are fully carried for the next two years - I don’t see the big concern. Relax!!