Member Info for WetWater

Newtofo: Yep - This guy is the one who originally put me on to Falcon and introduced me to Phillip. If you take the letter you will see a lot of information I push back to him, some of which comes from this board. If you would like, send him an email and have him it forward it to me - It might come in handy to have each other's contact info. I'll put him on notice to look for it and forward it to me - just mention WetWater.

I think Davy is taking lessons from RBC! They don't want to look too far past what we have already established as contingent resources. As you say, they ignore the seismic, test wells, etc. outside of the contingent 6.6Tcf - I know much more is there, you know more is there , they know that also but it's a big 0 in that ledger column when it comes to assigning any additional value - then just to be on the conservative side they discount the Velkerri 6.6 Tcf value by 52% ! The Kyalla and the Velkerri wet gas discounting I can understand - they do seem to mention throughout the report the wet gas comparison to the Marcellus play so you can read between their lines. I complain about the discounting but in reality there's technically a risk of commerciality/discovery so they are just doing their job.

Geovanni: I know it was not you comment or question but 2% royalty is well worth the $170 million paid. When the Beetaloo was first put together Bruner had to give away about 12% ORI. Investors told POQ that if the Beetaloo was ever going to fly he needed to reduce that burden which is what he is doing. When it comes time to sell, that 2% will yield multiples of the $170 million paid. To answer your question, the royalty is based on the gross income. On top of this ORI, the Northern Territory has something like a 10% tax on production so it helps to reduce the ORI. Here in the states common royalty anymore is 25%. The companies make it work but the extra 15% in the Beetaloo will cover lots of overhead and infrastructure.

Davy has a new report out. I haven't had a chance to review it but they have us ranked as outperform with a current heavily discounted target of .66 usd (51p). Looks like that is with a 10% risking on the Kyalla (90% discount).

On the Velkerri alone current valuation which is risked at 48% due to 'commercial risk' Davy has Falcon valued at .55 usd (42p)

Either way you look at it Falcon is a screaming buy at today's prices.

Just got a very strong confirmation that drilling would definitely be proceeding this year. There seems to be a contingent of people out there that firmly believe Origin/Falcon drilling will be pushed back to 2020. Between those naysayers and the continuing sales out of the bankruptcy (yes as of today they still exist) the price action of Falcon is under pressure.

I don't believe Phillip will mind being quoted on this as he is as frustrated as the rest of us:

“We ARE drilling this year. Absolutely NO chance that it will be pushed back to 2020. We are drilling in 2019 and you can tell everyone that this is going to be the case. We have signed a rig contract. Done. Origin in the very near future will release their EMP (Environmental Management Plan), a requirement prior to drilling. Obviously, I am in regular communications with Origin. The rig is paid for. We are drilling (he repeated for the 10th time)."

"The word is that doubters believe we will not be drilling...they are all wrong, we will be drilling.

You can take it to the bank guys - things are on schedule.

Schlemiel: Thanks for the article by Mr. Latimer. Its always nice to get some Beetaloo publicity, but as you said, Mr. Latimer apparently has little actual knowledge of the Beetaloo Basin.

Not only is his 6.6 Tcf going to supply Australia for 400 years but the next Kyalla and Velkerri wet gas wells are going to make or break the Beetaloo? Someone needs to tell Mr. Latimer that the wells scheduled for this year are looking to prove up additional shale zones in the Beetaloo - they have nothing to do with his 6.6 Tcf 400 year gas supply for Australia.

Mr. Latimer also writes there is little infrastructure notwithstanding the newly installed pipelines in the NT? And just what does he expect on this new discovery/undertaking? Jemena has indicated it would be expanding its Beetaloo pipeline capacity as exploration proceeds - not an issue but rather the logical process of buildout..

I agree with Mr Davies elephant quote for we have seen this elephant's toenail :^) Also agree with his prediction that this elephant is bigger than even the biggest players in the region - its even bigger than the players outside the region. The Beetaloo is going to require multiple bites by supermajors/internationals to eat this elephant.

Schlemiel: I have tried to do a little research on the approved permitted area Origin submitted to the inquiry panel. This planned development is detailed in the report but I can not find it as of yet. It was a 500 sq km area and though I was disappointed in 'only' 500 sq km I came to realize that that size area would provide many years of drilling for Origin. It could be the 500 well planned program Paltar referred to but I am not sure. Maybe someone can come up with this submittal - I would think that submittal would contain the number of proposed wells.

If 500 sq km would provide Origin with 'many' years of drilling then how many years would it take to drill 16,000+ square km of the Beetaloo concession - and that's just the Velkerri B! Eventually Falcon's acreage will be split up many ways amongst many companies.

Yep it's very apparent you have no personal knowledge and I'll grant your wish - you are dead wrong!

Obviously you haven't had the same conversations I have had. The last thing POQ wants at this point is hype and promotion of Falcon. He made that very clear to me - he does not want to entertain any offers at least until after the 2019 wells are drilled and tested (think November) - Better yet, there will be no offers until after the 2020 program. He doesn't want any lowball 'material' offers at Falcon's current low price that he has to bring to the shareholders. He has said people and companies are very much aware of Falcon position in the Beetaloo - they, like us are waiting to see results - these companies will pay up once they know what they are bidding on.

POQ never promised you that an apparent PR machine would be well underway by now. An under the radar PR is very likely going on right now. The plan is to use Cenkos London connections to go directly to some large institutional investors and start planting seeds. He anticipated it would take 6-9 months for these efforts to payoff - about the same time the Kyalla is tested.

Please explain to us why you think Falcon needs a capital raise right now. I don't know if you understand what a full carry means on these next 4-5 wells. Falcon has a $2 million burn rate and likely about $6 million in the bank. Why in the world would you think it would be advantageous to raise $20 million at this time - for what?? If the Kyalla meets their expectations (an unknown) Falcon will easily double in price. The longer they put off a raise the more likelihood of a higher share price thus less dilution. Maybe not even a stock dilution, he might have plans for the large institutions he is courting.

Unless Falcon has to participate in its JV cost on any additional wells POQ doesn't think Falcon needs any further raise. I think I will take him at his word. POQ has been a well respected oil and gas accountant most of his career - I would suggest you pay attention to what he says before you start making all your Nostradamus predictions.

Eyedoc - I'll be the first to admit I don't understand the Sweetpea Bankruptcy. There is so much Beetaloo acreage in play and the Beetaloo is heating up so why would some big player not buy up Sweetpea's interest and get 60 million shares of Falcon to boot. I don't know that much about Sweetpea's acreage but I believe it offsets some of Falcon's acreage?? The proceedings may be much more complicated than we know about. I suspect if it gets converted to a Chapter 11 the assets would bring more - we will just have to see what the judge rules.

When you compare any other Beetaloo Sub Basin acreage to Falcon's that other acreage will come up short. Origin/Close/Falcon/APPEA all have said that the the prime sweetspot acreage for the Velkerri runs right through Falcon's property - that's the ideal spot to drill this dry gas shale unless we can pick up the wet play on North or South East acreage - that fairway has already yielded Falcon 6.6 Tcf of contingent resources. Then we know that the aerial extent of the Kyalla is pretty much contained within the Falcon permitted area - not proven yet but lots of potential. With an estimated 85 - 100 Tcf of producible gas on the Velkerri B zone alone and the potential of the Kyalla I don't believe any surrounding acreage would in any way match much less lesson the value of Falcon's concession.

The bankruptcy is a puzzle. The current Falcon price is a puzzle. Things should begin to clear-up in the next few weeks.

Hmmmm! I bought shares today at .214 - on my charts the shares never traded below .210. It's amazing how you topped off at .20 cents. Between what I bought and you bought there were only 154K traded in FOLGF. Looks like your topping off didn't involve many shares especially after one deducts out what I bought.

If drilling doesn't happen this year as you predict then I'm afraid both of us overpaid for our shares.

Here is some information on the Petrohunter Bankruptcy case. I believe today was the day for the ruling on an injunction or stay on the Chapter 7 - haven't seen nor heard the outcome.

The sale hearing is scheduled for April 30, 2019. Looks like TS Capital Partners LLC is looking to pay $.5 million for the Sweetpea shares - I don't know all the inner workings but that sounds awfully cheap for 60+ million shares. Also interesting to see Sweetpea has 24% of 1,750,000 acres in the Beetaloo in addition to a 50% of an additional 1,500,000 acres in the Beetaloo. On top of that I was told they have $ 2 - 3 million cash in the bank.

I was told there was a low-ball bidder who was likely to gain these assets - looks like a sweet deal for Sweetpea IMO. A stay or injunction on the '7' will change the workout / numbers on the bankruptcy.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

PetroHunter Energy Corporation, an oil and gas exploration company, owns oil and gas leasehold interests in western Colorado and Australia. As of September 30, 2012, the company owned 11 well bores in the Buckskin Mesa project covering an area of 20,000 net acres located in the northern part of the Piceance Basin in Rio Blanco county, Colorado; and a 24% interest in the Beetaloo Basin project covering an area of 1,750,000 net acres in Northern Territory, Australia. It also owns a 50% interest in two exploration permits that cover an area of approximately 1,500,000 gross acres in the Beetaloo Basin. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. On October 17, 2016, PetroHunter Energy Corporation filed a voluntary petition for liquidation under Chapter 7 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Colorado.

Key Executives For PetroHunter Energy Corporation
Mr. Martin B. Oring
Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chief Financial Officer
Age: 72

Motion for Sale of Sweetpea Shares Filed by PetroHunter Energy Corporation
Jan 15 19
PetroHunter Energy Corporation filed a motion in the US Bankruptcy Court for the sale of its Sweetpea shares on January 15, 2019. The debtor seeks the Court’s approval for the sale of its Sweetpea shares to TS Capital Partners, LLC, the stalking horse bidder, for a purchase price of $0.50 million in cash pursuant to the asset purchase agreement, dated January 11, 2019. The buyer must make a earnest money deposit of $0.05 million. The sale hearing is scheduled for April 30, 2019. The buyer is represented by Jeffrey A. Weinman of Weinman & Associates PC as legal counsel.

Namu - Though possible I highly doubt POQ is working on any raise right now. At the AGM he strongly indicated that the company had sufficient funds to not only carry them through the 2020 drilling program but also purchase the upcoming ORI - Personally I think the ORI statement would be cutting it pretty close on funds but that is what he indicated. Maybe you or someone on this board can put a date on that ORI option - I'm thinking November of this year??

Ideally, Falcon will wait until 2020 to do any additional raise - by then the share price would be stronger resulting in less dilution. There is a pretty good chance that Origin is going to continue drilling after the two scheduled wells in 2020 - POQ didn't see them sitting on their thumbs while Falcon works up appraisal and sales packages. If continued drilling looks to happen, Falcon cannot afford to go non-consent so it will be necessary to do some type of raise to carry them through the sale - of course more wells will mean a bigger sales price..

If I and others get our wish, things will be going so positive at the end of the 2020 program that Falcon will consider raising an additional $100 million or more to continue an additional year of appraisal well drilling. That is when the price of Falcon would really start its parabolic move upwards.

Schlemiel: Bruner is the person fighting to get the bankruptcy changed from a 7 to an 11. That was to be decided today though I'm sure that outcome has much less to do with Falcon than for Bruner's other interest. Hopefully the Falcon stock will be placed in some solid hands not to see the light of day for a couple of years.

Thanks for posting the link - I will add that to my daily list of sites until the case is finalized.

Following is the NT News Article once again addressing the $8.4 million pledge. This proposed funding has absolutely nothing to do with Falcon's current drilling programs. In time it might play into the Development and Production phase of the Beetaloo Sub-Basin project but by then Falcon will have flown the coop.

If we remember back, it was the Federal Government putting the screws to the NT to lift the moratorium and allow exploration to begin. They cut NT's GST budget with an additional threat to cut it even more if the moratorium was not lifted in a timely fashion. Sidney needs the Beetaloo gas supply in a very bad way - they are having the worst gas shortages in 100 years - the Federal Government knows the potential of this concession and is pushing the development of the Beetaloo Sub-Basin in general. The $8.4 million was just showing their support for the project - I don't think they would reverse that commitment but if they did $8.4 million is a inconsequential amount of funds in the overall scheme of things.

Funding to fast-track fracking in Beetaloo Basin is focus of $8.4 million Federal Government pledge
KIERAN BANKS, NT News
April 16, 2019 9:50am

FUNDING to fast-track fracking in the Beetaloo Basin is the focus of an $8.4 million pledge from Resources Minister Matt Canavan if the Morrison Government win the coming federal election.

Mr Canavan will announce the funding in Darwin today, which includes $5 million to conduct additional environmental work, $1.9 million for a Beetaloo Aboriginal economic development strategy and $1.5 million for a feasibility study to examine gas exploration areas in the Beetaloo Sub-basin.

Mr Canavan said gas was a vital resource for the Territory and one that would provide a boost for the NT’s struggling economy.

“We want to get on with the job. We want to get the gas up out of the ground and into people’s homes and businesses as quickly as we can,” he said.

“We want to ensure guaranteed supply of competitively-priced gas for households and businesses, and one way to do that is accelerate production from the Beetaloo Basin.”

CLP candidate for Solomon Kathy Ganley said the economic boost fracking would give the Territory excited her.

“The NT’s independent inquiry found that even small-scale developments in the Beetaloo could create more than 6500 full-time jobs and positive economic impacts of up to $2.8 billion for the Northern Territory and over $9 billion for Australia as a whole over 25 years,” she said.

”This project will assist the NT Government to identify and prioritise gas projects that could be accelerated based on key economic, environmental and social factors.

From what I know, the Petrohunter bankruptcy is not scheduled to begin until this Wednesday. I was told that as of last week the br is still a chapter 7 - there are attempts being made to get that converted to an 11 - about a 50/50 chance.. Either way, I can't imagine these 60+ million shares being sold publicly on any exchange - it will just be a private br liquidation. Besides the Falcon stock Petrohunter has $2 - $3 million in cash and I was told about 2 million acres of land somewhere in the vicinity of Falcon's permits. Once again this is coming second/third hand so take it with a grain of salt.

Whether right or not, I was told this bankruptcy has been an overhang on Falcon stock. If not for the bankruptcy and associated continual selling pressure of 20+ million shares of stock, Falcon would be about usd .50 right now That's just someone's opinion but I am certainly in agreement with that statement. I am anxious to see how this stock begins trading towards the end of this month.

I can envision Chevron’s CEO making the following comments about the Beetaloo. The Barrons article concerns Chevrons recent bid of $33 billion for Anadarko Petroleum. Shale is becoming a super majors game. The industry will continue to see more and more of these consolidations. Note that another reason Chevron is interested in Anadarko is its. LNG holdings. The Beetaloo has a bright future - we just need to get back to drilling.

The deal makes Chevron the second-largest player after Concho in the Permian Basin, the country’s most productive oil field, according to IHS Markit. Chevron will now control a land mass 75 miles wide in the heart of the basin.

“You think about driving 70 miles an hour for an hour, and you’re in our acreage the entire time,” Chevron CEO Michael Wirth tells Barron’s. “That acreage is sitting on top of layer after layer after layer of this shale. And we’re currently only recovering 10% of the hydrocarbons in that.”

Anadarko also holds valuable assets in the Gulf of Mexico. A promising natural-gas development that Anadarko controls in Mozambique will help Chevron expand more into liquefied natural gas and at a much lower cost of capital.

After Chevron’s Big Deal, Oil Stocks Are Rising on Hopes for More Mergers
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-play-oil-stocks-after-the-chevron-anadarko-deal-51555118881

Newtofo: Ensures continued demand for Australia's LNG by China - Darwin is the logical supply point for that LNG and the Beetaloo will have a supply pipeline to Darwin's LNG trains. As you said it all bodes well for the Beetaloo.

The Kyalla, as we know, has never undergone an extensive frac job. With the comprehensive analysis and testing of the rock structure in the Shenandoah and the Beetaloo W-1, Origin has high expectations for the frackability of the Kyalla zone. Origin knows the hydrocarbons are in place and the rock studies to date say the Kayalla can be fracked to release its treasure. Here's hoping with them!!

Six to Ten weeks and counting down. Place your bets.

Yikes! - The Permanent Peoples Tribunal states that fracking violates the fundamental rights of not only humans but nature. I didn't know that LTG had offspring :^)

A Letter to the Editor of the Alice Spring News:

A tribunal of international legal experts has delivered a scathing report on fracking, arguing the unconventional gas and oil drilling method is a human rights violation.

The Permanent Peoples’ Tribunal (PPT) has handed down its final report on its Session on Human Rights, Fracking and Climate Change, calling for a worldwide ban on fracking, and encouraging support for people’s movements against the controversial drilling technique.

The report makes several recommendations for local, state, national and UN action, including that nations recognise the rights of nature in a similar way to human rights to help address the existential threat of climate change.



It also calls for the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and the Environment to be asked to investigate the violations of the rights of humans and nature by the unconventional oil and gas extraction (UOGE) industry.

http://www.alicespringsnews.com.au/2019/04/09/nt-gets-mention-in-call-for-global-fracking-ban/

Schlemiel: It's not a building or a car but it will have to be assigned a value. That's why I think the market value (average value) of the stock over say a 30 day evaluation window would be a good way to place a solid value on the asset. If no one bids that price for the stock then I would assume the price would go to the highest bidder. We may not ever know that price but we will know the buyer.

Schlemiel: Don't get me to lying! I suspect there is a difference since there is a move to change it from a 7 to an 11. I assume the 7 would be an outright liquidation whereas the 11 is a workout and may allow for a little more orderly sale. That might possibly help move the sale past the Kyalla test or at least permit the trustee to shop the block around easier - all just a WAG!.

At the end of the day it likely won't make us any difference. I was just glad that the incessant selling was stopped. That 20+ million shares kept FOG under pressure when it should have been going up.

I just got some clarification on the bankruptcy hearing. I was confused as to the Denver proceeding - I always thought this was happening in Switzerland - just looks like Russenberger was the Switzerland connection. Still a Chapter 7 but there is a move to get a stay in the proceedings to have that changed to an 11. If that stay is unsuccessful then the assets will be sold under an Chapter 7 proceeding. Looks to be happening within a couple of weeks.

its in Denver, Fed court. That's always been the case.
The Switzerland connection is a guy named Christian Russenberger, who helped run the co. into the ground. Took the debt from $40m to $70m.

Its still a 7. That's the battle…getting it covered to 11, with a stay. All of this is happening in about 10 days. If there's no stay, ch 7 prevails and highest bidder wins.
Thats as I understand it