Member Info for WetWater

Green: We shall see my friend. Dollars to donuts drilling begins this year - IMO very likely this month. I am still thinking Origin along with Santos are just waiting for the bureaucrats in the NT to get off their butts and issue the final permit. If not then send me a brochure on the swampland - I might be interested :^)

Namu: I'm not sure I understand how the June or July date plays into your answer. Any article one reads from June indicates drilling is to begin in the next few weeks - that implies possibly July to me or August (ugh!). Even from what you just stated, if my information was not public, regardless of the source, then he is not to be held accountable. So in that case let's deal with June since that was in his last public Proactive Interview which you apparently based you comment

Now if you would please explain you reasoning for your previous comment - I am just trying to understand your thinking - I am not trying to be confrontational or argumentative - just wanting to understand your logic since on the surface it doesn't make good business sense to me. By the way, do you give any weight to Davy's council on proceeding with the raise in the manner it was handled?

Thanks

Green: If that is addressed to me then all I could suggest is that POQ was presented by Origin with an AFE for drilling cost that had escalated considerably since 2013. - due to both inflation and new NT reg requirements. We don't know what the joint operating agreement allows for but, by definition, the AFE cost had to be approved soon after presentation (or a desire to go non-consent which may not have even been an option on this farm-out). This AFE amount is due at the time or soon after the drilling expenses are incurred. Davy recommended the raise as they said otherwise would draw down Falcon's cash to a dangerously low level. This is an important statement by Davy - it was put out, it was public. I don't understand why some have such a hard time with this. To call POQ incapable or incompetent for the way the raise was handled may be your opinion but I still contend he was put into a position of an untimely raise not to his liking. At the time of the AFE the projected start date was June - To wait till a month before the bill is due to raise money for the AFE would have been in itself incompetent - Davy pretty much said that - I'll take Davy's opinion over yours.

As far as you previous comments about his silence I tend to agree that both Falcon and Origin have been extremely quiet - I think the shareholders are due some type of explanation. There may be some type of negotiations ongoing regarding the lawsuit(s) between Origin/Santos/NT that Falcon shouldn't be commenting publicly about - Just a guess. Something has everyone quiet - even Santos.

Namu: I'm not going to defend POQ on his silence. I fully agree with Greenlantern that it's getting close to being a material event. Timewise, I think the 2019 season is ok thru July but it is way past time that Origin/Falcon give their stockholders sometype of reason for the continual delays - if it is the NT then say so, If it is the lawsuit then say so - just say something! The only thing I could offer in POQ's defense is that he did last say drilling would be in July - we still have 3 weeks left but the remaining days are quickly ticking down and not a peep out of anyone.

This is a serious question of you because I really don't understand your thoughts. I've heard you say before the raise was Because POQ knew we were not drilling this year. If Falcon had $6 -$7 million in the bank and there was to be no drilling why would he want to raise capital when the stock is at its current levels. If he didn't need the money and the bills were not coming due for another year why raise now? I would think he would have gotten a lot better response from those he approached for the raise if he told them it was for drilling expenditures in a couple of months rather than for next year.

With Santos on the verge of helping prove up the Velkerri B shale why the rush - that should help support Falcon's price assuming Santos doesn't get held up also.

It just makes more logical sense to me that he needed it for the escalated AFE he was presented with. That resulted in a real need for timely funds. Even Davy came out and said the raise was necessary because of this.

Anyway - just curious as to your thinking behind your comment that he needed the raise because he was not drilling in 2019.

Bigones - Now you are starting to sound like POQ :^) The only thing he would add after drilling, proving up and commerciality is 'selling'.

You're right and I don't disagree with a thing you said - Just because it's there doesn't make it a commercial project. What lights my fire is the Amungee well with its 1000 meter lateral with only 600 meters fracked with an undersized production string still produced significant amounts of gas without any apparent depletion over 57 days. Origin was pretty excited about the flow test results which tells me they have high hopes for this discovery being a commercial play.

So the Velkerri dry gas looks good. Now the same needs to happen on the Kyalla wet gas formation. I think you would agree that if Origin can come close to the same type of numbers, with wet gas and shallower drilling, then another commercial play looks to be in the making.

We need to get back to drilling and proving up this concession - we have lost nearly 3 years and none of us are getting any younger. I think we could have the proverbial tiger by the tail and that's what makes this play so sexy. We got in this for pennies and are now playing for dollars. GLA

Orson: I agree that there 'might' need to be a period of evaluation on the Velkeri wet gas well but that depends if the horizontal well even gets drilled. This is an 'iffy' prospect so if the vertical well doesn't show potential we can mark the horizontal drilling and 'flow test' window off the calendar. What I can't seem to get an answer on is that if the Velkerri wet is unsuccessful do they move back up north and drill an offset to the Amungee this year as I was originally told. Even if an Amungee offset didn't get fracked this year it would be nice to fully utilize the rig for the season as contracted.
It would be nice to get two horizontal wells drilled this year if at all possible given what appears to be an every smaller window of time for the 2019 season.

Yep - Twice a long to do half as much - must be some beauracrates involved in the process somewhere along the line :^)

You would think the NT would be scrambling to get this industry moving and gain all 564 employees according to the official Grennie BS! Oh how I wish those SOBs would come to the PB and try to tell us that crap with a straight face. We beg and plead and can't come close to the employees we need. The last I heard we are a little under 1.9% unemployment and those are the hardcore who refuse to work. I think the projections show about 100,000 increase in population in the next 10 years -- 564 my Arse!!

JF: I'm still hopeful as we are still within in the latter July projected window but the clock is ticking away and all we are doing is watching paint dry. I'm still a POQ fan but I am beginning to wonder why we are not getting any information out of Origin. I realize that Falcon is a carried interest owner is going to following Origin's lead and we know Origin is the typical big quiet company. You would think these turkeys could put out some sort of statement saying things are still moving forward but waiting on 'X', 'Y' or 'Z' or before we can move forward this or that needs to be resolved. Frustrating for sure!

Are we are still waiting on the same issues as Santos? They seem to be very quiet also.

In the meantime we all just keep getting older - you with your upcoming hip, myself with a recent knee surgery, etc. So life goes for Falcon shareholders! May we all sidestep the grim reaper until the Beetaloo project is finalized and sold.

Good Luck on the Hip!

Dprussky: Isn't the finalization of the code of practices something that Origin was waiting on - either Origin or the NT needed this completed before things can move forward. I would say that Origin needed this before the final permit could be applied for but I am not very clear on this. Maybe someone can clarify this for the board.

JFhealy: And I thought you were tuned in. If you are saying POQ did not go to OZ then you are obviously out of the loop. I know from two separate independent sources that he was headed to Australia in a hurry. Not going to say anymore about the details or sources or conversations but I assure you he headed down under. - I guess that puts me in the say bucket as you when you threw out your vague negative vibes comment. I don't POQ's full schedule or when he will return but why don't you call his office - you will find that he and Anne are missing in action.

Thanks for the response Namu though you didn't directly answer my question as to drilling in 2019. I assume your dark cloud scenario doesn't include any planned drilling for this season - unless you consider drilling to be a dark cloud.

I am still of the camp that believes that the escalation of drilling cost over the 2 1/2 year moratorium as reflected in Origin's updated AFE is the reason for the raise. If the two wells had proceeded this year with no raise it would have reduced Falcon's cash to below $1 million - Davy cautioned them against putting themselves in such a dangerous drawdown of cash.

If no drilling in 2019 then I certainly can't see a need for a additional raise in early 2020. There will be plenty of cash and a solid $130 million remaining carry. Maybe you can give us some dark cloud examples of what you are thinking.

At this point I don't have an opinion on whether drilling proceeds this year or not. If the NT issues the Kyalla EMP permit then I suspect things are a go. I have heard there are similar pastoralist suits waiting in the wings - is one of those potential suits a problem for the Kyalla or possibly of concern to a potential alternative site? - don't know. The NT government can likely calm the waters if they propose a schedule to work towards signed access regulations by the end of the year and make those retroactive to current projects - they have already mentioned that was their intention.

Again - Thanks for the response.

I am looking for some type of NR from Origin this week in answer to this suit. I know that the filing of the suit caught POQ by surprise - he was pissed and is in Australia working with Origin for a way to move the ball forward - I heard that he is still insistent that the drilling program proceeds this year. Some of you guys want to blame POQ for this fiasco - If I were to lay blame it would be on companies like Origin and Santos for not getting ahead of this curve. They thought it would go away and they would continue as usual but it looks like this chicken has come home to roost
IMO even though the pastoralist are basically lessees, having lot of trucks/equipment constantly running up and down their roads can be a source of irritation - here in the states 'surface damages' and 'access fees' tend to help with that irritation.

Namu: Yes your predictions are far more accurate but I have an excuse - As you have told all us on this board - "The Namu" is the smartest person on this board:) Since you're so smart and make great predictions quick question:

Are you saying that Origin drills two wells this year? I assume that is an affirmative if you are now predicting that Falcon will be doing a further raise the first of 2020 - if no drilling then enlighten us why would Falcon would find it necessary to raise capital if they still have a $130 million carry and about $14 million in the bank and less than a $2 million dollar burn rate?

This is a serious question Namu - Please don't ignore as you have been known to do. Now is your time to shine.

The Oracle

cont.....

“(The finding) was made with no evidence or other material justifying a finding that (Origin) has carried out stakeholder engagement under regulation seven of the regulations,” the documents read.

NT Cattlemen’s Association chief executive Ashley Manicaros said while he couldn’t comment on the case before the court, the NTCA would watch the outcome with interest.

“What we really need to see as a matter of urgency is the land access legislation recommended in the Pepper Report to be delivered by the NT Government as soon as possible,” he said.

The Pepper Inquiry found current land access guidelines in the NT were not binding and called for signed agreements between pastoralists and gas explorers to be mandatory.

“It is the panel’s strong view that, prior to any access to a pastoral lease, a signed land access agreement (statutory land access agreement) must exist between the pastoral lessee and the gas company and, moreover, that the obligation to finalise such an agreement must be statutorily mandated,” the report reads.

Very telling that Ashley Manicaros is follow this suit very closely. The Cattleman's Association is behind this action for the benefit of its members. Nothing wrong with that. Interesting that they want this to be addressed as soon as possible. With the money at stake for its members I don't think the association wants to kill fracking and as Ashley says - it need to be resolved as a matter of urgency. Thus the timing of this action. It will be interesting to see how the NT government responds. I'm disappointed that Origin/Santos along with other industry members have not already gotten on top of this issue. I was told 'It is Not the Australian Way' - look though like it's now time for a change.


Top End graziers take on Origin in fight over fracking their pastures
Cattle station owners are suing Origin in a bid to stop the gas giant from expanding its fracking operation on their property.

JASON WALLS, NT News
|
June 22, 2019 11:16pm
The owners of a Top End cattle station are suing Origin Energy in the Supreme Court in a bid to stop the gas giant from expanding its fracking operation on their property.
The owners of a Top End cattle station are suing Origin Energy in the Supreme Court in a bid to stop the gas giant from expanding its fracking operation on their property.
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THE owners of a Top End cattle station are suing Origin Energy in the Supreme Court in a bid to stop the gas giant from expanding its fracking operation on their property.

Origin began fracking the Amungee well in the Beetaloo Basin in 2016, after getting approval from the Country Liberals, narrowly avoiding the incoming Labor Government’s moratorium.

Now the owners of the Amungee Mungee cattle station are seeking an injunction to stop Origin from further gas exploration in the wake of the Pepper Inquiry.

The court action seeks to prevent Origin from submitting an environment management plan and Environment and Natural Resources Minister Eva Lawler from accepting it.

The owners — billionaire businessman Brett Blundy and Katherine poly pipe manufacturers Emma and Adrian Brown — say Origin has failed to carry out its stakeholder engagement under the Petroleum (Environment) Regulations act.

In documents submitted to the court, the trio accuse Origin of failing to provide information about the environmental risks associated with fracking or the consequences it could have for their business for them to respond to.

The Browns and Mr Blundy also say a finding of the Land Access Arbitration Panel that Origin can submit an environment management plan “without any, or any further, stakeholder engagement” is invalid.

cont........

Dprussky: My concern is that the Cattlemen's Association seems to have picked up this torch. As previously mentioned this is all about non-mineral owners rights/compensation. The Association sees this as a great way promote/benefit its members. If I am right, then look for similar types of suits to follow this one. I think at the end of the day there will have to be some type of surface damage/access rights paid to these pastoralist. This was mentioned years ago and quite frankly I was surprised how much cooperation there was between the Origin and its pastoralist.

I'm hoping that some type of agreement can be made between Origin/NT/Cattlemen to revisit this and establish some type of base payment system by the end of the year as the NT has promised to do. The NT holds the trump card but politicians are politicians and I can't see Gunner telling the Cattlemen Association to F#ck-off. At the same time the government needs to get this show on the road so maybe a patch can be put in place for the time being. The timing really sucks but then that is likely how it was planned.

Have these people had their heads up their butt for the last 18 months? This was exactly what the regulations/environmental EMPs have been about. Origin had obtained their prior approval. IMO they want some of the royalty to flow their way. It’s all about money! I hope Origin tells them to screw themselves. We see the same type of whining here in the states when a landowner doesn’t own mineral interest. Ranchers routinely get paid ‘surface damages’ for roads, pad sites, access etc. Some make large amounts of money through this type of actions.

Empire is experienced and well positioned in the Marcellus and Utica Shale. With their working knowledge of these shales it's reassuring to see them focusing in on the Beetaloo onshore gas play.

Nice find Schlemiel

cont........

"Water comes out, goes into the enclosed tanks and then can be evaporated but while it is being evaporated, we have a range of other controls in relation to potential rainfall events and in particular flora and fauna and the biggest concern has been about avian fauna, about birds.

"We have gone back to the companies who are doing their detailed wastewater management plans now to talk with them about what the particular birds might be in that area and how they are proposing to reduce any risks to those birds to as low as reasonably practical."

More reading:

Mr Shaw also said the Government took advice on the recommendations from the CSIRO "to help us come up with best practice science around the storage of waste water in particular as this question relates to".

"From there we went out to peer review, both national and international peer review, to get advice on how they felt our proposed approach dealt with the recommendation of the inquiry report as well as the best available science and they supported what we came up with.

"Then we went out to the public for consultation, and this was the biggest issue that came back from the public consultation-the use of these enclosed waste water tanks. We basically went back to really thoroughly review the approach taken and strengthen the code to-it now, as the minister says-we have complied with that recommendation to store waste water in enclosed tanks. The code is now much more specific saying that water must be stored in enclosed tanks."

In response to a questions, Mr Shaw said the wastewater has to be stored in an enclosed tank.

"... however, if it is being evaporated for the purpose of reducing the volume of that wastewater, it is allowed to not be in the enclosed tank, only for the time that it is actually being evaporated. You would not only have an evaporation pond, you would have the enclosed tank and you would be able to move it from the enclosed tank to the evaporation facility, and then back into the tank."

Protect Country Alliance spokesman Graeme Sawyer today said Mr Shaw's comments confirmed people's worst fears.

"Not only will poisonous fracking waste water be left in open dams, potentially harming animals and the environment, but that the NT Government sees nothing wrong with this.

"The doublespeak used to justify the process, whereby the wastewater goes out of a holding tank into the open air evaporation pond and then back in again is galling, and resembles something out of a Monty Python movie script.

"This is a clear rejection of Justice Pepper's recommendations, and should outrage every Territorian who cares about our unique natural environment.

"At the crux of this problem is a government captured by the gas fracking industry and a disregard for biodiversity. It's a classic example of watering down the recommendations to make it cheaper and easier for the frackers.

Graeme Sawyer is back - "Not only will poisonous fracking waste water be left in open dams, potentially harming animals and the environment, but that the NT Government sees nothing wrong with this.

Another backflip on promises to stick to fracking rules
Chris McLennanChris McLennan
Local News
.
How a fracking drill site might look. Picture: Origin Energy.
The NT Government has again been accused of failing to keep its promise to implement all the key rules to allow fracking for onshore gas to continue.

Enclosed tanks will not be used on drill sites to store wastewater from the fracking promise at all times.

Open air ponds will be used for evaporation of wastewater as well, it was stated this week.

The admission was made in an NT Government Estimates hearing this week.

This is despite repeated promises to faithfully implement all the 135 recommendations from the Pepper inquiry into hydraulic fracturing which allowed a mining moratorium to be lifted.

In a joint media release from Primary Industry and Resources Minister Paul Kirby and Environment Minister Eva Lawler on June 12 they stated: "In response to public submissions, the Code (of Practice) has been revised to make it clear that enclosed tanks are required to be used to store wastewater. The Code has also been made clearer regarding wastewater treatment, evaporation, transport and disposal requirements."

Ms Lawler again said at Estimates this week: "We are thoroughly and comprehensively implementing every one of the 135 recommendations of the hydraulic fracturing Pepper report."

In announcing the moratorium of gas exploration was to be lifted last year, Chief Minister Michael Gunner almost promised to implement all the recommendations.

Speaking at Estimates this week Chris Shaw, the executive director for Onshore Gas Reform, said wastewater must be enclosed in tanks.

"However, on the flip side, particularly at these early exploration scale of the industry there are not a lot of waste water management solutions available locally ...," he said.

"...which means we want as little volume as possible of this waste water and to do that we have allowed for evaporation to be used so water that comes back from the wells it must be stored in the enclosed tanks but we are also saying that we are allowing evaporation to be used primarily as a mechanism to reduce the volume, reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from waste transport, reduce the road safety issues from waste water transport and reduce the local social impacts from waste water transport.

The threatened Gouldian finch is known to inhabit some of the proposed gas exploration areas in the Beetaloo.

Cont......

Td: All is well - nothing that some type of friggin news might help. This has been a trying 3 years. Hopefully we can get a bone to chew on to give us some focus. I admit to being as much a 'problem' as anyone lately - just getting bored sitting around day to day waiting for news to hit - watching paint dry is not my game. There is not a soul on this board that I couldn't sit down and enjoy a beer with. Part of the fun and focus of the board is reading the tea leaves and trying to predict not only when the bird flies but how high. I really believe we are on the last leg of this journey.

Don't be a stranger.

Cheers