Member Info for WetWater

Schlemiel: I had heard a month or so ago that Blundy missed the filing deadline for the SC appeal and that as of a couple of weeks past that missed deadline the case had never been refiled. Then someone posted to this board that something indicated that the case was on the docket(?). Unless there is something very material showing this case is now active then I am still of the opinion what I first heard was correct - I consider that source to be very reliable.

I think I pointed out the lack of a fracking EMP to Namu(?) and that is why I told him that Origin's EMP was much more involved and potentially could take longer for approval than the Santos EMP. II think Newtofo and I agree that until we hear something definitely different I am not going to worry about the 2019 drilling schedule. We can assume and conclude all we want but it doesn't mean anything until we get some type of press release by Origin. If the NT holds up these wells this year then someone's head should roll - starting with Gunner's being served up in his cherished GST beggar bowl.

Namu: Not rehashing the capital raise - I still don't understand your logic. As far as the board action against POQ I haven't heard anything and I think I would. IMO POQ has not done anything to upset the board - he is doing just what any good non-operating JV partner should do - sit on his thumbs and wait for guidance from Origin.

I would think we should get some news on the drilling front within the next week or two. If plans change from what has been previously stated I would suspect some type of news release would be required. In the meantime I eagerly open my computer every morning and expect to see news where none exist - sigh!!

Namu has not been proven wrong so far - he's still welcome in my book. There have been no news on delays so IMO we are still just waiting on the permit to be issued. I believe we are still in the parameters of the UBS report so its not panic time. We have more than enough time to drill and test the Kyalla well as of this time and at least drill the Velkerri well. I do not see where Blundy come into play on the Kyalla so IMO he's not a factor. I still have my rose colored glasses on until we get some other type of guidance from Origin/Falcon.

Green: We shall see my friend - we shall see :^) I'll keep you in mind when the permit is issued.

BO: Short answer is that it's your game to play - your approach could very well be profitable - it's just not my game. You have always been the one to try to trade this penny stock - I have never sold a share and continue to add. Hopefully at the end of the day we both make money - maybe your's is penny's, maybe mine will be dollars. Only time will tell.

A couple of mis-statements in your post: 1) The Kyalla well may not be flow-tested 57 days - that might be 30 days - there is no magic number. 2) At the end of the flow-test there will not be 'months' to study the results - the flow-test data will tell them what needs to be known is pretty much real time. 3) Falcon doesn't require much money to pay pay for Stage 3 - you tend to forget those wells, though capped, are carried wells per the farm-out agreement. Does Falcon need more next year? - I'm not really clear on that. If the Velkerri wet gas doesn't deserve a horizontal test then that money flows into stage 3 next year and answers that question. If the Velkerri looks great then Falcon stock is higher at the end of the day making it easier to raise what is needed for any excess of the capped cost. 4) Plenty of time at this point to drill/frack/test the two 2019 wells - it is Falcon's intent to announce the results of the wells as soon as they are known. We will know the Kyalla test in about 90 days, the Velkerri about 45 days after that. It is Falcon's intent to release the results of both tests by this years AGM - will they meet that goal on the Velkerri - it will be close!

If any company makes a material bid for Falcon's interest, then by law Falcon has to take that to their board and make it known to its stockholders. My fear is that if Falcon's board up and announces a lowball bid of say .75 cents prior to the projects completion and you are out of the stock then where do you stand? - that could happen now, when the Kyalla test is released, when the Velkerri test is released or sometime in between - no heads up - just bam - here's the offer and the stock is up overnight. In that case you take your genius hat off and put the fools hat on - It's your game to play.

Schlemiel: As someone told me the other day, INPEX wants every molecule of gas it can get its hands on in the NT. INPEX and Totale both are very potential bidders for Falcons 30% interest. Both want, need and can certainly afford to buy out Falcon's interest. As we saw in the article a couple of days ago, INPEX has experience with fracking and with 4 new planned LNG trains they will certainly have the appetite for the productive acreage of the Beetaloo.

Good response to BO - I never saw his post - it must have been pulled. If BO wants to roll the dice then on whether there is or is not an early bid or if the Kyalla is a dry fart of a solid well that is their choice. If he wants to sell out then know he will be proven a genius or a fool - that's his game to call. I'm just sitting tight to see what happens. If this year's wells are a flop then Falcon share price will get hit but then Origin/Falcon will move back up North to prove up commerciality in the Velkerri B - At the end of the day I think I will be very pleased with this investment. IMO the Velkerri B alone will get me to my $2 - $3 target price - time will tell.

Hmmmm - So Inpex is looking to expand production acreage to feed the additional LNG trains they plan to build. I suspect we know where some great productive acreage could be had for a small price :^)

THE head of Japanese energy giant Inpex has flagged potential plans to expand the Ichthys LNG onshore processing facilities in Darwin.
Inpex president and CEO Takayuki Ueda also said the corporation was “very interested” in expanding its onshore activities in the Beetaloo Basin.
He joined Inpex’s Board of Directors as they swapped in their suits for some high-vis work gear to tour Ichthys LNG onshore processing facilities today.
“We have two trains but there is enough space here in Darwin for the construction of four additional trains and in the pipeline we have five tie in points,” he said.
“We are going to develop, not only to maintain the Ichthys project as it is now, but to expand the production of gas both onshore and offshore.”
He said Inpex had already discovered natural gas in 11 of their 20 offshore acreages, so they saw there was “a lot of possibility for the expansion of the plant”.
The board of directors will consider the plans as they meet in Darwin today, which will also be their first time holding a board meeting outside of Japan.
“The main agenda for this board meeting will be to confirm the current situation and consider the next activity of Inpex in Darwin,” Mr Ueda said.
“Therefore I believe that we will of course address the possibility of expanding our activities onshore in the Beetaloo Basin.

“We already have some acreage at the Beetalo Basin and need to consult with local government and first nations people so that we can move towards another stage of exploration
“We are operating a Shell Oil plant in Eagle Ford in the United States and we have some good fracturing technologies domestically in Japan.
“Maybe we can consider bringing those technologies to the Beetalo Basin in the future.
“I believe there’s a lot of potential but need to see whether we can produce natural gas there in a very commercially viable way.”

BO: Hey guy - you need to put on your rose colored glasses! I took the press release to be POQ signaling that all is well.

Maybe he is trying to calm some stockholders. Here we are going into August and still no permit. I anticipate that the permit is coming shortly with the rig ordered soon after if not already. Good to see him address the work on both wells – maybe assuring you and others that Origin is still moving forward on drilling both wells this year. I am not concerned with timing to complete the 2019 drilling program but I know some are, as we have witnessed on this board.

The little blurb by Angela McDonald in the AFR was Origin's attempt to do the same. The 2019 drilling season is preparing to move forward. All is good.

Even when the announcement comes I don't suspect the stock will move much. The drilling of the two wells this season is already a know fact in the market. It's not the spudding that will move the stock but the results of these wells. 2019 will tell us a lot about the Beetaloo and where we are heading over the next year (2020) or possibly even 2021.

Poods is going to be criticizing POQ regardless of what he does. When Falcon sells out for $2, $3, $4 a share he will still be telling us that Anne could have negotiated a better deal. If only Falcon had done a reverse split the world would now be much brighter. I think his real issue is he was put on ignore and let his toes get stepped on.

Schlemiel: My thoughts exactly. In the case of on-shore gas I always felt that Canberra was holding back to insure that the NT Government lives up to its promises to allow drilling to proceed THIS year - good for Canberra insuring that the politicians carry through with all their promises. We all remember where Canberra severely cut the NT's GST with threats to cut even more if they held up the development of the NT's natural resources. Canberra got tired of the yearly request to fill the NT's beggar bowl when they refused to help themselves.

ITguy: I agree. I know for a fact that Blundy missed the original filing deadline and as of a couple of weeks ago had not refiled. The article reads like the drilling program has been held up for 2019. Blundy's lease does not pertain to the Kyalla well and his suit wouldn't have any standing with regard to Origin's first well this season.

Curious to know if it even actually appeared in the Irish Times - it was strange that it comes up under movie reviews on the link I saw. I also suspect it would have come up in the Australian news since it is allegedly a suit against Origin Energy as operator and filed with the NT's courts. Looks fishy to me.

Namu: Don’t let the door hit you in the ass!!
If you hold Falcon which you have indicated(?) I think you are going to enjoy being exiled and being proven wrong. Good Luck.

Namu - You are stretching guy! Enjoy your no drilling prediction in 2019 while it last - your days are numbered.
I read the other day that Santos’ EMP did not really cover fracking details - haven’t seen it myself so do your own research. If so then the Origin EMP is much more complex and better prepared than the one approved for Santos. I don’t know why you would make such claims regarding the Origin EMP. It makes one wonder if you have even reviewed that document - once again you throw out statements without any logic or proof - that seems to be a Namu pattern.
Just know that your days are numbered - Adios my friend.

Namu: The Santos EMP was submitted about two weeks prior to Origin’s so it would make sense Santos receives their permit first. Do you really think that the NT is going to approve Santos but then turn down Origin - don’t hold your breath. Yes - IMO Origin’s EMP is finalized and I don’t understand the comment on dropping the ball on its landowners - that was a money grab attempt by the pastoralist to gain access fees - not part of the 31 regulations by the NT. Falcon’s stock price can not be used to predict anything - pretty obvious over the years.

At some point in the very near future your going to have to accept you are wrong. Once the permit is issued the rig will be ordered. How long does that take? - Hopefully a couple of weeks to begin operations. The important thing is that drilling will begin this year and it looks to be in time for both wells to be drilled, fracked and tested - all is good.

Does Namu stay or does he go? In reality it’s been fun banter - I’m OK either way! I just want this project to move forward in a way that benefits all.

Whoops - OMG - Looks like the great Namu is being proven wrong! Bye Bye oh Great One - its been fun :~) We won’t even see you around in 2020. Now that’s a happy thought.

PS - Thanks for the one sided bet - I assume you are a man of your word.

Dprussky: if they can drill and frack one well then they have time to at least drill the second - splitting seasons for fracking as in the Amungee well. We still have time for both - not critical time wise - Yet!

I was told (Namu - that’s my crystal ball in your case!) that the Supreme Court filing date was missed and as of a couple of weeks ago had never been re-filed. IMO Santos and Origin are simply waiting the the NT government to issue the required permits.

As the clock slowly ticks away :~(

Ultra: Good research on the 2000 meter laterals. Will 2000 meters qualify for commerciality - that would be great since the Velkerri B shale is contiguous and thought to be consistent in its rock characteristics. I thought I read/heard that 3000 meters was required - that would be a Falcon or Origin question though something tells me that that inquiry would go unanswered.
Thanks for the link.

Newtofo: I suspect the planned Santos well will be a horizontal test well just at Origin's Amungee - it will likely be a 1000 meter horizontal which you are correct - will help prove up the field for both Origin and Santos. With that said from the Proactive Interview, POQ said they will select the best of the three horizontal test wells and pick one shale to drill the two 2020 'Fulling Singing/Fully Dancing' 3000 meter lateral wells. I have heard in the past that two such wells are required to prove meaningful commerciality on any of the three location. If the Kyalla well comes in as they hope with it's potentially better economics that will likely be the pick for the Stage3 wells. Therein lies the dilemma. With only two wells left for 2020 and if those are drilled in the Kyalla to prove commerciality then what do you do about the Amungee? I think at that point you probably do another raise for Falcon's AFE participation in two Velkerri B wells. If the Kyalla is successful the stock price will be higher and IMO the decision for another raise to prove commerciality of the Velkerr B would be an economically easy decision. At that point commerciality could add a dollar or more/share to the eventual sells price. If Falcon were to get so lucky as to have a very successful Velkerri wet gas play do you plan to engage two rigs for a 4 well package for the 2021 season? I think that would depend on Origin since at that point they hold 70% - once more we couldn't think about going non-consent as the penalties are just way too high. Falcon then does either a larger raise or sells off some of their interest - whatever works best - and no Poods, a reverse split would not be required - I suspect what Falcon would have in their portfolio as commercial RESERVES would speak for itself - it would be an easy raise. This last scenario is likely a pipe dream but fun to consider. We are a ways off from having to cross that bridge.

Newtofo: As Phil said, even one well drilled will be Namu's ticket out of here. But who's to say he doesn't return as ??????

I just have to keep the faith that Gunner lives up to his pledge. I suspect he is beginning to feel the heat of their knuckle dragging. After all this time with the regs having been finalized what are they still reviewing? As mentioned the NT's economy is crashing - the fracking industry is going to ramp-up slowly beginning with fewer employees and then building numbers - surely he understands that backing up onshore gas another year just puts off the industry's inevitable growth benefits . I suspect the Feds are beginning to rattle his cage and will soon begin threatening to cut the their GST if the NT fails to being developing their resources - The Feds have done this before with great success - Pardon my French but if I was Canavan I would tell the NT to go sh*t in their friggin begging bowl - no more giveaways for those who refuse to help themselves!

Schlemiel: Unless I am mistaken, the civil permit for the Kyalla well was issued some time back. From what I understand the roads/padwork have been completed. Just waiting for the final permit to order the rig and get to drilling. I don't have time now to research but I am pretty sure about the Kyalla civic EMP being approved and I 'know' what I've been told regarding the location work - the site is ready to drill - we just need a rig!