Member Info for WetWater

Namu: "First accurate statement" - Then you haven't been paying close attention to what I have been posting - I have been saying for years that the ultimate goal of POQ is in the final sale. He doesn't want to promote the Beetaloo or Falcon's share price - it might trigger premature unwanted offers.

I know from conversations with POQ - the real value of Falcon is the closing sale price. He has told me as I am sure others not to ever consider selling my Falcon stock until the final deal is on the table - otherwise you are short changing yourself. Falcon's share price will never approach its true value until POQ pounds the gavel!

IMO Philip's true job is to obtain for Falcon shareholders the top dollar value for its assets. That is where you and I continue to disagree - you continue to look at this as a regular operating company with it associated share price - you need forget today's share price and instead be looking at it as a company proving up its highest possible liquidation value. If Philip can maximize that liquidation value then he will have done his job.

Schlemiel: This has been part of my thinking all along but IMO the sticky part is Falcon's 30% undivided interest. Someone is going to have to take Falcon's 30% undivided interest out of the equation - that someone would most likely be Origin but then that money is going to have to come from somewhere as Origin couldn't afford that kind of investment. The best scenario I see is Origin buying out Falcon and at the same time farming out specific areas of the Beetaloo to INPEX, Santos, etc. Those farm-outs could be structured in any number of ways for Origin to recoup their cash outlay and possibly retain some of the farmed-out interest. For me or anyone to speculate on how such a deal would work would be an exercise in fruition - far too many options IMO.

Namu: Good Response from Poods. On anything regarding operations POQ defers to Origin as he should. He has approval at his discretion to issue news releases on the Kyalla and Velkerri wells without Origin approval - any other comments on operations are likely off limits.

IMO people tend to naturally looks at Falcon's future as an ongoing entity when in fact if all goes well this company/stock is basically history in 18 months (with the exception of SA). You and I disagree on the need for POQ to make any material raises prior to the end of the current farm-out. If I am correct in my opinion I see no need for any current roadshow - POQ is not concerned about promoting the share price - his focus is on completing the 9 well package and then selling Falcon's assets lock, stock and barrel - what Falcon sells for will be a function of what contingent resources/reserves are proven up in the next 12 - 15 months and the value potential buyers assign to those assets - the share value at that point is immaterial.

As I have said before, POQ is holding his breath that he doesn't get any material offers prior to the completion of the appraisal report - for that reason I don't see him trying to promote Falcon's Beetaloo interest prior to that final appraisal report.

The earliest I see a need for an additional raise would be after all nine wells are drilled. If funds are needed to meet participation requirements in additional wells prior to a sell or to complete the appraisal report then those funds will be raised at that point. Falcon should have a much sexier story at that point and I suspect any raise would be much easier and less dilutive.

Origin789: And here I thought you just put a plug in the wall and electricity magically appeared. We had a situation here in Texas a few weeks ago when the sun didn't shine and the wind didn't blow. Some of our environmentally focused towns that ran on green energy got a rude surprise when they had to buy good old fossil energy on the spot market at a rich premium. Green energy is fine as long as you also have a redundant fossil based energy backup or one hell of a battery system.

INPEX will likely be the main potential buyer of Falcon's interest- they have openly expressed Beetaloo interest. I haven't figured out how this will all work out with Falcon holding a 30% undivided interest in the Beetaloo - it will be an interesting process to watch. IMO that undivided interest will need to be undone at some point - it just gets in the way and the Beetaloo will need to be divided up at some point in its development but then Falcon will be long gone by then.

Newtofo: There is no delay on the spudding - looks to be just a matter of the remote location and Origin getting all their ducks in a row. Origin told us on August 22nd(?) they would initiate drilling within about a month and in September - they look to be on schedule. I don't fully understand your comment on flow testing but the wet season is a non-factor and I think there is an extremely good chance that the flow test will be completed by the end of the year. The Kyalla is shallower and avoids penetrating the Moroak Sandstone which is a difficult/time consuming formation to drill - barring any unforeseen problems look at the shorter end of the estimated drilling time. Also, there is no magic number of days for a flow test, the Amungee was 57 days but fewer days may be sufficient - just my opinion.

I think we will just have to wait and see how the Velkerri well is handled. As BigOnes mentioned, Origin probably doesn't want to be trying to drill a well in the wet season - that would mean lots of added expense and time trying to move vehicles/equipment through the muck and mire. I can see a situation whereby if roads permit, the rig may be moved to the Velkerri location to be ready for the early part of the 2020 drilling season. I just think drilling the Velkerri looks to be a little too optimistic at this late stage.

The main point of my previous post is that we (I) have allowed ourselves (myself) to become a little disappointed that the well has yet to be spudded - that was a result of our (my) own doing. My crystal ball indicated that Origin is on right on schedule - just theirs - not ours!!

I suspect POQ will live up to his promise of Falcon news releases - Look for that spudding announcement prior to September 30th. That is at most 7 days from now but then who's counting :^)

Namu: I wouldn't expect any roadshow from POQ anytime soon. I'm sure we will get his promised news releases as the well progresses. Once the flow test is released, which I hope to be this year, it might give POQ something to shout about - of course those results are yet to be seen. So look for a Christmas present hopefully by the AGM. I suspect at this late date the Velkerri well will be postponed until next year and if so it give us something to look forward to early in the 2020 season. This year could end with a bang or a bust but 2020 looks to be a busy exciting time.

I just pulled out my crystal ball and had a message materialize. It appears that the final assembly of the Ensign rig on the Kyalla well is close to completion and we will soon be receiving a news release when the well is spudded. Origin indicated that the planned spudding of the well would occur in September and it appears things are running on schedule as originally planned.

I, along with others on this board, made an incorrect assumption that the well was underway. In reality, this well is the first of its kind and located out in the middle of friggin nowhere where it appears to take much longer to get one's ducks in a row. There have been no problems or issues - it just takes longer than we anticipated. Look for a news release on spudding as originally promised and if my crystal ball is correct that spudding will be in September which means sometime within the next 8 days.

All is good. It seems patience is still the name of this game.

Origin789: Maybe someone can verify this but I was told on the Amungee well there was a week or two of actual drilling by Origin before any announcement. An Origin person said this delay was intentional to help sniff out any insider release of information or insider trading. The on-site personal were gravely cautioned not to release any drilling information or results - in other words the one or two weeks was a test to see if they had any leakers. I was always amazed at how quiet the Origin employees were with the Amungee well - the well was a real game changer yet the volume and price action of Falcon showed no indication of what was being tested/discovered.

Could today be a replay of the Amungee well - might possibly be. I am very confident that this well is currently being drilled. It doesn't take this long to assemble a rig and get it turning. Origin made it pretty clear they would not even consider ordering the rig until they had a permit in hand - they were not wanting exposure to any very expensive daily stand-by rates. The Ensign rig will have been put into operation as soon as possible - IMO that time has passed and the rig is drilling. My big question is for how long will they keep a lid on any release.

BO: Sounds like POQ doesn’t have anything on you! His ‘options’ expire - yours don’t. Falcon is a great ‘options’ play at these prices. - with the contingent reserves of the Velkerri I don’t sweat the current price. Also with the rig on site, no question that there will be drilling soon - lots of expense getting it on location - Origin is going to put it to use this season.

Like you I think we should be seeing some type of news release - Origin is keeping a lid on things for some reason.

BO: 30 - 45 days to drill and 30 - 45 days to frack. The last reported by the news was the rig was being trucked to the Kyalla location and Origin CEO Frank Calabria stated he was anxious to get the project underway It is likely being assembled as we speak if not already assembled and turning to the right?? You may want to contact Origin and find out their schedule and what their thinking might be. Please let us know back what you find out.

Quite frankly the timing is as puzzling to me as it is to you - Origin drills wells all the time so maybe this is not such a big deal to them - maybe drilling is proceeding but for whatever reason (the environmentalist?) Origin has not released any announcement - Hmmmm! If that's the case I'm surprised Falcon has not issued a press release but then again they tend to follow Origin's lead.

As you indicate time is running short. I will be glad when we finally receive notification that drilling is underway. I am still confident that drilling will proceed this year but I would really like to have the Kyalla flow test results by year end - we will see.

IT Guy: It hurts to be ignored :^( Also some people just cannot accept the fact that Falcon is not running this show.

POQ has put Falcon in a great position with cutting Hess loose and his negotiated deal with Origin. He has trimmed Falcon's overhead to a bear minimum, has no debt and is doing just what he is supposed to be doing right now - which is patiently waiting for Origin's 9 well carried farmout program to play out. Some want to criticize him for the recent raise but that was just a result of 3 years of inflated drilling cost catching up with project AFEs - a result of NT's moratorium and out of our CEO's control. Some begrudge him and others for his stock option compensation which by the way is pretty standard in any public company. I hope Phlip make a friggin fortune on his stock options - the more he makes the more I make - his options are going to have a hard time breaking me.

Philip's next big task will be getting an appraisal of the Beetaloo after the drilling program ends and then as he puts it - sitting down eyeball to eyeball and negotiating top dollar for Falcon's 30%. He doesn't want a third party negotiating for him in the sale - after Hess and Origin I have every reason to believe he has the ability to close the deal.

OTd2000: I always think back to Dr. Closes' statement that the Kyalla has the potential to become the primary target of the Beetaloo. Not only is it shallower and thus less costly to drill, but it is expected to contain valuable condensate that will further improve the economics of Kyalla wells. Dr. Close went on to say that he thought the Kyalla could potentially contain enough gas reserves that production could be delivery constrained - not supply constrained - in other words there is not sufficient pipeline capacity to deliver all the gas to market.

Whether these statements are pipedreams or reality will soon begin to clarify. if the Kyalla well comes in strong and the price of Falcon does not respond accordingly then one best back up the truck because the Beetaloo assets will have just become much more valuable.

It has always been projected that it will be the mid 20s before any commercial gas would be delivered from the Velkerri B. Technically the interviewee said that sufficient high reserves of gas will need to be proven before the project goes commercial - that is the purpose of the two fully blown horizontal 2020 wells. Those wells will be used to declare initial commerciality of the Velkerri B. Of course if the Kyalla comes in strong those 2 wells will be redirected to prove commerciality of the Kyalla so that means the Velkerri B will remain as a contingent resource. I hate that with success of the Kyalla the true value of the Velkerri B likely won't be realized but in that case Falcon must either pony up their 30% share for two Velkerri B wells in 2021 or sell the Beetaloo including the discounted Velkerri B as a contingent resource.

Realize that Origin, which at that point will owns/control 70% of the project, chooses whether to direct investment back to the Velkerri B rather than the more profitable Kyalla. But then Origin is wanting to sell some of their interest so proving up the Velkerri B asset might be a desirable option.

Lots of assumptions and opinions on my part but something that will need to be addressed if Origin's wet gas plays prove successful. I don't want to count my chickens but given the options, I would rather have a highly successful Kyalla well!

Origin789: At the rate this project has been moving the last 3 years we may all use our profits to buy a bungalow with wheelchair access and a fancy wheelchair to boot! I hope not to offend to any wheelchair users with this statement but none of us are getting any younger with Falcon - its time to get back to drilling which I hope is just around the corner.

BO: Please fill in the blank. Also reread the context of your recent posts. Pretty obvious what you were saying or implying -no drilling this year. Just own you opinions - Opinions are pretty much all that any of us on this board have at this point.

If you keep up with the news you would know the rig is in the vicinity of the pad if not already in the process of being assembled. If you read the Origin CEO's statement you would know that the man-camps are set up, the pits basically assembled, roads are constructed, equipment is arriving on site and drilling anticipated shortly.- What does the actual rig location have to do with any of this? or maybe you are saying you think this is all just a sham and the rig is still in its yard in Perth? That sounds like something you would promote.

Don't misquote me - I didn't say the stock price would be lower Jan 1st - I questioned the wisdom of Phil spotting you .20 cents - with Falcon that seems like a risky bet to me - the stock price Jan 2nd will likely depend on what type of news releases occur between now and the first of the year. The stock price was down to its lows the day before the Amungee discovery was announced so spotting .20 cents is not something I would have given you!

Hey BO: Here you go for a starter - "I think the bad news is imminent, sold today will be looking at next year like so many others. GLA don't hope I'm wrong but if I am make a fortune you deserve it for holding so long !"

Maybe you can tell us again why you made that untimely sell at a loss - maybe 'bad news is imminent' was referring to ___________ (Fill in the Blank) You have made similar statements prior to this one - don't try to weasel out of your stated positions and opinions - just admit you were wrong and own them. Nothing wrong in that - I have a few that I have to own myself!

Let's not waste anymore of the board's space - I regret once again rising to take the bait. We are drilling this year which is what is most important at this late date in 2019. Hopefully we get the results of the Kyalla this year but if it lapses into the first of 2020 we can live with that - we just need to start seeing progress towards the end game in 2021. GLA

BO: Speaking of track records is this the pot calling the kettle black?? Seems you recently sold for a sizeable loss the day of the announcement for 2019 drilling - just after telling us no wells would be drilled this year. I don't think anyone is going to put much credence in anything you say. But then again you always have a way to revise you actions after the fact. I still recall the day you told us how you bought stock for .19 when the stock never traded below 20 - or the time you sold at a price where the stock never traded - sometimes you comments need to be audited :^) Phil appears to be about the only good bet you have made lately - good luck on that one - maybe it will break your losing streak.

Agree - the price action/volume today is pretty meaningless - only about $225,000 traded on US market. I was a buyer today - I need to send the seller a Thank You note - nice guy!

Loved Gunner's comment regarding the 10% (Amungee NW-1H well) having 4X the potential of INPEX's huge Ichthys Field. If the Kyalla is less than stellar then add a couple of more 6-7 Tcf / contingent resource wells and then de-risk the 90% discount and all the sudden we are talking serious reserves/money.

Don't know whether to pull for the Kyalla, the Velkerri B or maybe the Velkerri wet gas play - too many choices :^)

Namu: Great Find - And here we sit at 13.625. Some day the market is going to wake up to Falcon. In the meantime we will just smile and be content knowing we are sitting on a World Class discovery. Someday this secret will get out.

BO: ..............and there's the difference - I'm not playing Falcon for a $30,000. gain.

I would take the BO side of the BO/Mickelson Card - being spotted .20 cents on January 2nd on a stock that trades like Falcon is not something I would give you - It's possible the Flow Test might still be underway at that date - IMO if the Kyalla looks to be a potentially commercial well the flow test will last longer - the market may have a different outlook until the official results are released - i.e. the Amungee NW-1H well. GLTA

Well at least you have come around to drilling in 2019 - that's progress on your part.

How bout we take the other extreme side of the equation = 30+30+45. To my knowledge there is no mandatory number of days to flow test.

After sufficient unloading of frack fluid, if the Kyalla doesn't offer commercial potential then the flow test will be terminated before 45 - 50 days. If the Kyalla shows commercial promise it will be flow tested 45+ days to see how the pressures hold. If this well is still being flow tested going into Christmas and the flow test is at 45+days then we investors will all have a great Christmas present - Give yourself a nice Christmas gift and buy back your shares prior to the announced flow-test results - it could cost you a few pennies but make you whole lot more.

Its you money - play the game as you see fit.