Member Info for WetWater

Yep Poods - I recall that post. No offense but in all honesty I must say my opinion has not changed whatsoever. At the end of the day its all about what Falcon can get for its 30%. A R/S might help the traders in the stock by providing more liquidity and exposure but frankly when the sell comes a R/S would not be of benefit at all. As I have said many times, it's all about what some major or international oil company thinks Falcon's 30% is worth.

When you say that for some 'unknown' reason operations in both Australia and SA were delayed tells me you were not in tune with your investment. It's pretty clear what was going on in both Australia and SA - for you to state that it was unknown was a little disingenuous - I think you are smarter than that..

Based on the assurances of the NT government that drilling will proceed this season I have no doubts that we will see a spud date for our JV. Falcon and Origin are sitting on go.

Sorry Poods - No pats on the back from me today :^) This continual delay has got me a somewhat of a pissy mood!! We need to get to drilling sooner rather than later.

Cheers

Namu: Then you'd better get the hell out of the stock because I'm all in. I'm still think you could benefit from a reading course - If you follow what I say so closely you would have seen where I said just last week that IMO neither Santos nor Origin would have their EMP's approved until the current 35(?) new regulations receive their stamp of approval. That looks to be the SOP of the process.

I've seen one productive post out of you and your now up to 32. Why don't you attempt to bring something positive to the board rather than trying to make yourself seem important by criticizing others.

Speaking of predictions - You said that drilling this season was unlikely - You never would respond as to why. Would you care to respond now? Has that opinion changed?

How about that Cenkos report that Namu (In third person??) said he had a couple of weeks ago. Why didn't this third person Namu help the board by giving us a report. Your one strange cat! - please try to bring something positive to the board for a change - Signed - The Oracle :^)

An unnamed person (organization) is paying a crisp $100 bill to for anyone's thoughts on Fracking. MY oh my - to think not too long ago it used to be "a penny for your thoughts". The Anti-Frackers must be getting desperate.

$100 cash for thoughts on fracking
Chris McLennan
Local News
Market researchers want to know what Katherine people think about fracking.
Market researchers want to know what Katherine people think about fracking.
Mystery surrounds the identity of the client wanting information on fracking at a focus group in Katherine this week.

Specialist and well recognised market researchers McGregor Tan from Adelaide has sent emails saying it wants to hold a focus group in Katherine on Thursday "to discuss attitudes and feelings about hydraulic fracturing of onshore gas (fracking) in the Northern Territory".

"The group will run for about 90 minutes and you will be paid $100 cash for attending," the email reads.

Although the email does not say where, the focus group is supposed to meet at 5.30pm and 7.30pm on Thursday.

People would have to register through McGregor Tan's website if they wanted to learn more.

Similar meetings are to be held in Darwin on Wednesday.

The Katherine Times has called McGregor Tan asking for more information about the meetings.

https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6196065/100-cash-for-thoughts-on-fracking/?cs=1459

Schlemiel: Regarding the EMP - do you think Origin will have to wait until the new fracking regs are finalized? - that is my take. If so, in the Australian Financial article Paul Kirby was quoted as saying the regs would be finalized in the next 'few' weeks in time for the 2019 drilling season. I took that to mean the latter part of June or the first part of July.

If this is the case then Santos nor Origin's EMPs will not be officially approved until the regs are completed.

Possibly A Central Petroleum's EMP was approved because they are not permitting fracked wells? Just my guess.

Thanks Otd2000. I'm still a bit confused by the naming convention of these wells. The Amungee NW1 is also shown to be named the Velkerri 98N1. Per the EMP, there have been 2 boreholes drilled "adjacent to the Velkerri N1-1". I was expecting to see something around the Velkerri 98 E1 proposed location. I'll keep looking but thanks for the link. I recall seeing a map with all the current/proposed boreholes designated. I may just contact the company and see if they can answer my question regarding a potential Velkerri B well this season.

Origin's EMP Permit Area 98
2.1 Location and Proposed Operations
propose to install up to 2 groundwater monitoring bores
adjacent to Origin’s existing Velkerri N1-1 lease sites within the Origin Beetaloo EP 98 Area.

Thanks Newtofo - Well put.

One thing I have not seen mentioned recently is the original plan to move the second horizontal test up north offsetting the Amungee well if the Velkerri wet gas vertical test does not look promising. The thought was to better utilize those horizontal drilling funds in an area they know has a high degree of success to end the 2019 season on a positive note. With the apparent tight funding they may forgo the second horizontal test and carry that money over to stage three drilling - we will see.

It would be nice to see the Velkerri B Dry gas contingent resources doubled this year though I don't recall water monitoring bores being drilled up north around the Velkerri 98 E1 potential location - maybe someone can correct me on that. There were eight water monitoring bores permitted but I cannot locate the document showing were they were placed.

Green: "Why would any company dilute their shares just before, so called, great news as the bit hits the ground?

I don't know the solid facts but I think it is pretty clear why it came down the way it did. Prior to actual drilling I suspect Origin presented Falcon with an updated AFE which exceeded Falcon's expectations. Remember Origin moved $15 million from stage1 to stage2 - We were told years ago that Origin offered a very generous budget for this years program - this generous amount plus the added buffer of $15 million probably gave Falcon an expectation that the cost were covered for this year. When Origin's AFE exceeded those expectations Falcon went into scramble mode. Though they had enough money to cover the difference from what I was told, Davy recommended the raise rather than bleed Falcon's cash down to $1 million. POQ must have had an interested institutional investor and things happened fairly rapidly.

I don't know the IIROC timing rules but I think your charge of Falcon knowingly making false deceptive statements a bit over the top. What did those false deceptive statements accomplish for Falcon, what actions were taken based on this false information. What do you hope to accomplish by making this filing - did you lose any money or were you damaged in anyway.

Its amazing how we individual stockholders, while looking in from the outside, believe we know better than the professionals when it comes to running a company.

I suspect POQ would be the first to tell you that this was crappy timing for a raise right before the bit hit the ground (and the bills showed up in the mailbox).

Good Luck on you complaint - whatever you hope to accomplish.

Namu: I’m thinking of starting this boards own raise - to buy you into an Evelyn Wood Speed Reading Course :^) I still can’t put my hands on the Cenkos report and am looking forward to your take on what is in that report. I’m not expecting anything new but curious as to your take. Thanks

Nerves: I’m not too concerned with the 3mmcfd figure. If the Amungee well didn’t meet the requirements of success we would not be reading the UBS report. If you allow for six hundred meters of frac and convert the Amungee’s flow figure to 1000 meters you come up with 2 mmcfd. As Nano mentioned and the UBS report states the production string was undersized - likely due to cost reduction for the test well. I don’t know what flow restrictions that would create but as Nano pointed out there would be a reduction. Anyway, I’m not concerned about that figure - everyone seems pretty pleased with the discovery.

A 3mmcfd flow from a 1000 meter lateral sounds high to me. Maybe out a 3000 meter lateral? If what they stated is correct then the Amungee well didn’t come close to commerciality and I know Origin was very excited over that well - it exceeds their expectations. I’m thinking a typo? Though that would be a glaring mistake. .

Hmmmm - “*********************”. W W W Research-Tree dot com

Regarding the Cenkos report - The full report is 39 pages long and can be accessed (after sign-up) at *********************.

I am am still traveling and haven’t accessed the report. I have reviewed the Cenkos Summary Investment Case and it was quite positive.

Maybe Namu will review the full Cenkos piece and report back to the board.

BO: help me out here- I don’t recall ever seeing what the cost overruns were for the first three wells. You indicate you know - just a ballpark figure please. I wouldn’t think a cost overrun would be calculated since these were uncapped wells.

The rig is not on standby - Origin/Falcon have reserved this rig for the 2019 and 2020 drilling seasons - as I understand it the cost will be the same regardless of when it starts.

When should have Falcon factored in the new regulation cost - they are just now being estimated? Case in point - there appears to currently be a discussion going on on as to how to dispose of waste water - a major cost factor. New regs seem to be one of the factors that escalated drilling cost but it’s tough to estimate the cost of their impact until they are finalized.

The biggest cost increase was likely caused by the 2 year moratorium delay. Falcon had operated under the assumption that the budgeted amount for these capped wells was very generous - turns out drilling cost escalated more than Origin/Falcon originally factored in. As you can see by the easy raise this was just a bump in the road.

What is important is that drilling begin ASAP. The guidance for this looks to be late June or early July. It’s far too early to be crying the sky is falling. As we discussed the other day, the Santos nod will give us a clue as to Origin’s timeline.

Hey OrsonM. Thanks for handling the “high math” question. Seems there are posters who want to twist and turn everything they can to cast a pall over Falcon.

I’m ready to see drilling get going if for no other reason than to give these guys a new focus on which to spin their negative outlook.

Schlemiel - As we all know this board has had this RS discussion ad nauseam - this is about the only thing Poods knows and he is not going to let it go. I have had extensive personal RS discussions with POQ on two separate occasions - I know exactly what his thinking is and I am in complete agreement. POQ has quit taking his’ calls/correspondence - Poods looks to have become a nuisance on more than just this board.

Lucky you for being tasked with this investigative assignment since you are the “new guy” on this board (??Lol!)

Hey Poods. - You wear me down bud! I don’t agree with much of anything you said but I’m on vacation and typing on an iPad which I despise. Position size (small or large) is relative to each stockholder. - glad yours is ‘small’ since you are so disapproving of management. You are right that we are in the late stages of this investment. I would classify your ‘some’ potential as huge potential. You criticize the delays and excesses of management - how would you have gotten around the delays? I assume by excesses must refer to options which IMO at the end of the day aren’t going to make any material difference in this investment’s return. Falcon may be a complete waste of time for you - if so I don’t understand why you don’t sell your small position and go on down the road - you aren’t going to change anything at this point because we both know that management has you on ignore.

I’m pretty excited about where Falcon is at this point in time - the game plan is coming together and we are in the last quarter. I feel very good with the signals indications coming out of the NT and feds. I feel very positive about the 6.6 Tcf of contingent resources and Falcon’s ability to multiply those at any time they desire. I am excited about the Kyalla potential and what a discovery there will do for our project. I’m pretty pleased with a POQ and give him a thumbs up.

I’m pleased with my Falcon investment - sorry it causes you such disappointment.

Orson: i’m Good with Nano. While I don’t know his field of expertise I get the sense he knows what he is talking about and I always appreciate and sometimes seek his input. All is good with me.

I find value in nearly all post - Though he and I got off to a rough start even BO is coming around with some good thoughts and comments.

Great board and great stock potential.

I offer what I know and never try to embellish or mislead. Sometimes circumstances chance the facts

On plane and devices off - buy

I don't think it really makes much difference. There was an article posted to this board the last few days that indicated that both parties are on board to support the development of the Beetaloo/pipelines.

As I have just discussed with some on the board, my crystal ball has failed me a few times over the years but as things stand now drilling WILL begin the latter part of June or the first part of July. As a CYA disclaimer I guarantee that prediction is good through the first part of July - LOL!!

The oracle sees another prediction floating to the top of his crystal ball - the PHUN bankruptcy ends in a chapter 7 - -sigh!

This is going nowhere. I have friends in the oil field that are engineers and have nothing to do with putting together AFE's. I have no idea what you do or don't do other than cut and paste, call people names and now put on a lawyer hat. Whether we are talking 40%, 50%, 75% or 90% there is room for success or failure. For the sake of the board let's just lay this aside - all that is important at the end of the Kyalla appraisal well is whether it is considered a success or not - if a success we will both be thrilled. If it does not hold potential I for one will be very disappointed - but as POQ once said, a dry hole is not a total loss - at least it tells you what not to pursue in the future.Good Evening and Good Luck

Time will tell Nano - As I have said all along - that was not my success prediction and you might be surprised who you call names.

In the meantime please keep your fingers off the cut and paste keys - I would expect that from some but it's a little below the pedestal I had you on. At the same time I will work on my fortune telling skills so that I won't once again disappoint a year or two into the future. God knows I hope I don't disappointment you on the Kyalla prediction though 90% is a10% prediction of failure :^)

I'm still appreciative of your input to the board - you are a definite asset to all of us. Peace!