Member Info for WetWater

BigOnes: I'm happy you're making money in Falcon. I'll take a10% gain in 3 months anytime.

You can help me 'learn' if you will share with us why you see no drilling in 2019. I may not agree with what you foresee as the problem but then again I don't know what your concerns are. It may be something I need to take into consideration.

IF drilling does begin this year do you see yourself as a buyer at that point or will you wait until the test results of the Kyalla well are known? I know you are waiting for a sub .20 price - I would like that also but I'm not holding out for that. Just trying to learn about your approach to Falcon.

I've been telling friends that a good approach might be to buy in at today's price and see what happens on the Kyalla. If it were to make a good well I see the share price easily doubling as the whole economics of the Beetaloo will take a paradigm shift. If its a dry hole then we still have the 6.6 Tcf up north which IMO is worth much more than the .23/ share investment. But then just as you I have been wrong before.

Please share your 2019 drilling season concerns.

To add to the Sweetpea/Petrohunter confusion I was told that the bidder wanted Sweetpea's acreage position more than the stock - but then I don't know what acreage position/rights Sweetpea holds.

I still wonder if Bruner might somehow be in this mix. His company Paltar holds adjoining acreage in the Beetaloo and he has a past history in Sweetpea/Petrohunter - that is just a WAG.

Yep - no one wants to tell us why drilling won't commence - just that it's a big IF. These guys are just nervous nellies - nothing behind their 'convictions'.

BO: I must say you have firm convictions! I guess we will know soon enough.

I once asked but don't recall an answer - What do we need to be on the lookout for as the delaying factor? From what I understand there can be no last minute challenges in the court by any environmental group. Are you thinking the regulations won't be approved in time? Maybe we fail our water-bore test?

I know you must have your reasoning - can you share? I'm thinking about buying more stock but should I wait?

Truly curious.

Namu: You need to go back and re-read my post concerning the bankruptcy and the 'forced buy-back'. I made it pretty clear that was not first hand or even second hand information - I do not know any first hand details or particulars about the proceedings. I do have good second hand information from the guy and his lawyers who got the Chapter 7 bankruptcy stopped that the trustees were making illegal liability claims and selling Falcon for their own benefit. This same person said the judge was furious with the trustees, threatening them with jail and also threatening them to replace the illegally sold stock (20+ million shares). I also know this same person got the sales of Falcon shares stopped and the bankruptcy changed from a chapter 7 to I believe an 11. If what I was told on the 'forced buyback' didn't pan out - which it appears it didn't - then so what - judges many times make threats but don't follow through.

Every board also has to have a few people that love to throw rocks and contribute nothing but snarky remarks - if that shoe fits then wear it!

Schlemiel: I really don't know. Its somehow tied to Petrohunter so it could be but then again is may just be a coincidence. I have forwarded this to my contact on this BR to see if he can find anything. I will let you know if I get an answer.

Onshore gas industry moves a step closer with release of fracking Code of Practice
GARY SHIPWAY, NT News
April 4, 2019 3:21am
Subscriber only
WHILE opponents of a Territory onshore gas industry continue to ramp up efforts to stop it, the Territory Government has taken another step towards commencement.

A draft Code of Practice has been released for public consultation as part of the Government’s implementation of the 135 recommendations from the Independent Scientific Inquiry into Hydraulic Fracturing.

The Code of Practice mandates enforceable standards and requirements for the onshore gas industry on key issues including: surface activities, well operations, wastewater management and methane emissions.

The draft Code of Practice is out for public consultation for four weeks.

Primary Industry and Resources Minister Paul Kirby said it delivered strong and clear regulation to protect the environment and give certainty for investment.

Minister for Environment and Natural Resources, Eva Lawler, said these reforms would strengthen governance and accountability for environmental decisions, support local jobs and provide greater certainty for business and the community.

The Protect Country Alliance, which is opposed to fracking, has raised the need for a drought trigger “to prevent fracking running down precious NT water supplies that communities and regional economies rely upon”.

The Alliance said a submission it made to an NT parliamentary economic subcommittee on the issue was not discussed, begging the question as to whether or not the Government was serious about protecting the water supply as large swathes of the Territory are currently experiencing severe water stress.

CSIRO senior research scientist (energy), Dr Cameron Huddlestone-Holmes, said the Draft Code of Practice drew on similar regulatory instruments used in other jurisdictions, NT Government policy and the Independent Scientific Inquiry into Hydraulic Fracturing’s final report.

“CSIRO has helped develop the Code of Practice in a manner that is technically sound and pragmatic,” he said.

“Over the past six months, we have collaborated with ­policy makers, industry representatives, and CSIRO’s own technical experts to develop a Code of Practice that addresses the relevant recommendations from the Scientific Inquiry.”

Namu: Sorry but just realized I went off on a tangent regarding your bankruptcy comment. As to the forced buy back I was told the judge found that the liability claims that initially forced a Chapter 7 for Sweetpea were not substantiated and were in fact illegal. The guy who was instrumental is challenging this also indicated that the judge was considering forcing the trustees of Sweetpea to replace the 20 million or so shares sold illegally to pay false claims of the Chapter 7. We saw some big block trades about this time but not anything amounting to 20 million shares. We on this board have always wondered why the stock price has trended downward since the moratorium was lifted. I think the selling of 20 million shares provide a clue as to what was happening. If and when I know more I will pass it on.

The Codes of Practice are good standard operating procedures in the oil field. Nothing of concern here and Origin has pretty much said such.

Community Bulletin #16

Code of Practice open for Public Consultation

The Northern Territory Government has worked with independent scientific experts to develop a draft Code of Practice for Onshore Petroleum Activities in the Northern Territory and is now seeking public feedback.

The Code of Practice has been drafted to clearly define the standards and requirements that petroleum companies operating in the Northern Territory will need to abide by.

The Code of Practice incorporates a number of recommendations from the Scientific Inquiry into Hydraulic Fracturing in the Northern Territory; including offset and set back distances, multilevel water monitoring bores to be installed, and pressure testing of petroleum wells.

The requirements of the Code of Practice will also be incorporated in Environment Management Plans (EMPs). These requirements must be complied with by petroleum companies carrying out activities.

Namu: Oh Sorry - Then let me mention that the 62 million Falcon shares involved in the Switzerland bankruptcy is in an evaluation window and the price is being held down by what I have been told is a low-ball bidder for Sweetpea. I have also been told the bankruptcy probably won't be over till sometime in May - logically there would be an evaluation window prior to the proceedings for valuing the Falcon assets. I don't know your history, but I have knowledge of a couple of people who I feel assured know much, much more than you do about this bankruptcy proceeding - they are large holders of Falcon stock and they wholly agree with the price suppression theory. Of course these individuals nor I know this 'capping' as a fact as it would be illegal for anybody to admit to suppressing asset values prior to the proceedings - especially if you are the low-ball bidder.

My best guess is that between the middle and the end of this month Falcon stock will begin to rise. If I'm wrong then oh well sorry - It won't be the first time! If you have a better idea of how stock assets are valued going into a bankruptcy proceeding please enlighten us - I'm all ears. The lower the value of Sweetpea the more likely a judge will accept a low-bid. If I was buying 62 million shares I would damn sure try to buy them on the cheap - On a thinly traded penny stock such as Falcon it doesn't take much selling to keep the stock in-check - if you have traded the stock over the last couple of months you would have seen this.

If you have an opinion as to Falcon's price action the last couple of months please feel free to let us know. Many of us are scratching our heads - logically the closer we get to drilling the better the price should trend. Any thoughts appreciated.

BO - You forgot to add "and there will be no drilling this year" :^)

Newtofo: We know who their faces are but not who is funding this nonsense. I suspect groups in Russia and the US amongst Soros and others are likely funneling money into LTG and their counterparts to enable them to continuously throw crap against the wall to see what sticks.

Its not to the benefit of world energy producers to add something like the Beetaloo Sub Basin into the energy supply chain.

Fracking and the oil and gas business will prove to be beneficial of the NT and its population. In time the noise of these environmental groups will be stifled and made less relevant by the increase in the NT's standard of living, health and educational benefits the industry will bring.

Jemena is not considering spending $3 - $4 Billion for just a few TFCs of gas. As we saw mentioned in previous articles they are seriously looking at expanding the capacity 8-10(?) X over. As you have asserted many times, Jemena likely has access to much more information regarding the planned development of the Beetaloo Sub Basin than has been released to the public. And to have the Federal government now backing it up with their financing speaks volumes.

For years you have preached your focus on the pipeline buildout by Jemena - Here's just saying I think you are spot on in your analysis. Expansion plans being tossed around with only 1 successful test well having been drilled tells us we on this board are on the right track. Go Falcon!

Cheers

The following is a cut from an article appearing in the Australian Financial Review. Note the reference to Jemena's $3 to $4 billion dollar expansion to its existing $800 million dollar Northern Gas Pipeline. Things are looking pretty serious as to planning for the Beetaloo Sub Basin development.

"There still seems to be a lack of focus on solving the gas crisis."

— Andrew Richards, Energy Users Association

Commenting on the Beetaloo funding, Energy Minister Angus Taylor said putting downward pressure on domestic gas prices while ensuring security of supply "remains a priority" for the government.

But industrial gas users said the resource remains only a possibility for supply several years down the track after drilling resumes this dry season after the NT's recent fracking moratorium. Pipeline developer Jemena is already considering a $3 billion-$4 billion expansion of its $800 million Northern Gas Pipeline to help bring Beetaloo gas to the eastern states.

Jemena managing director Frank Tudor said the Beetaloo funding as well as $45.5 million earmarked for the development of the Barkly region in the NT, which includes Tennant Creek, the starting point for the pipeline, should ease the way for the gas to reach east coast buyers.

"While we are yet to understand the full implications of the budget package, the federal government’s announcement of $8.4 million to accelerate gas exploration in the Beetaloo sub basin will likely assist with expediting the expansion and extension of the Northern gas pipeline, bringing more gas to the east coast," Mr Tudor said.

Origin Energy has high hopes for its Beetaloo gas resource in the NT. Peter Eve

He added that the Barkly initiative would also likely enhance the skill base in the remote region, meaning many of the 4000 jobs expected to be created by the pipeline expansion could potentially be filled by locals.

The funding for Beetaloo, while only offering hope for increased gas supplies longer-term, "is a good thing, because after Bass Strait we've really got a problem", said Garbis Simonian, managing director of business gas wholesaler Weston Energy in NSW, referring to the expected drop-off in gas production off the Victorian coast.

The Australian Energy Market Operator warned last week the east coast gas market is facing tightness from 2021 and shortfalls from the winter of 2024 if more supply can't be found to replace rapidly falling output from the Bass Strait.

But the short-term remains a problem for industrial gas users.

https://www.afr.com/business/energy/funding-for-nt-gas-doesn-t-help-short-term-manufacturers-20190403-p51a88

cont.....

The study would also investigate options to support gas flows to Darwin for export or use in downstream gas industries.

A further $5 million will enable the Commonwealth to conduct additional environmental work complementary to the existing Geological and Bioregional Assessment Program, and where required, procure domestic hydrological and geological expertise.

Battle for Beetaloo

This also supports the Northern Territory in addressing specific recommendations from the Scientific Inquiry into Hydraulic Fracturing Report completed in 2018. For example, it permits baseline water measurements as part of regional water assessment to support planning and impact assessment modelling.

As well, $1.9 million will support the development of the Beetaloo Aboriginal economic development strategy.

This strategy is to examine how best to leverage economic development for the Aboriginal communities through increased gas activity in the Beetaloo Sub-basin.

The surprise Budget move has outrage anti-fracking groups like the Protect Country Alliance.

Alliance spokesman Graeme Sawyer said: "We are experiencing one of the NT's worst ever economic downturns and this fossil fuel addicted Federal Government has handed a wad of cash to a fly by night industry with no social licence.

"Million dollar handouts by the Federal Government to money-pit fracking projects in the Northern Territory is an abject waste of Australian taxpayer's money.

"It's ridiculous that we should be spending millions of taxpayer dollars propping up an industry that Territorians don't want, that puts water at risk and will drive up carbon pollution."

The Federal Budget has reaffirmed the vital and significant contribution liquefied natural gas exports play in sustaining Australia's economic growth, the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association said.

APPEA chief executive Andrew McConville said Australia's LNG projects will deliver decades of economic growth, jobs and revenues for state and federal governments.

"APPEA welcomed the allocation of $8.4 million to support feasibility studies to accelerate gas supplies from the Northern Territory to the east coast market by opening the Beetaloo Sub-basin for exploration and development," Mr McConville said.?

Fast track for fracking with surprise Federal Budget cash splash
Chris McLennan
Local News

CASH SPLASH: The Federal Government has put some money where its mouth is by financing an "acceleration" of shale gas exploration in the NT.
CASH SPLASH: The Federal Government has put some money where its mouth is by financing an "acceleration" of shale gas exploration in the NT.
The Federal Government will invest a surprise $8.4 million to "accelerate" the development of the NT's onshore shale gas industries.

Last night's Budget item received little fanfare and has caught anti-fracking groups unawares.

Buried within the Budget was the following line: "Support feasibility studies to accelerate gas supplies from the NT to the east coast market by opening the Beetaloo Sub-basin for exploration and development".

Katherine Times this morning pressed the Government for more details and was referred to the office of the Minister for Energy, Angus Taylor,

A spokesman said the $8.4m would provide environmental baseline work, a feasibility study and an Aboriginal economic strategy to support development of the Beetaloo Sub-basin.

Santos and Origin Energy are about to start exploratory drilling and fracking operations in the Beetaloo soon now the NT Government lifted a year-long moratorium on the shale gas industry.

Chief Minister Michael Gunner announces the dropping of the moratorium on fracking.
Chief Minister Michael Gunner announces the dropping of the moratorium on fracking.

A succession of Government leaders have pressed the Gunner Government to drop the ban saying there is potential for the Beetaloo to provide enough gas supplies to power Australia for several hundred years.

There is also a keen focus on gas exports also.

Communities like Katherine remain firmly opposed to fracking.

The Federal Government says accelerating the exploration and development of the Beetaloo is in support of a recent Memorandum of Understanding with the NT Government to further develop the territory's onshore and offshore gas industry.

This project will assist the NT Government in identifying and prioritising gas projects which could be accelerated based on key economic, environmental and social factors, the government says.

One of the projects would also develop a strategy to ensure economic development from the NT gas industry yields significant benefits to the Indigenous people of the NT, particularly the Barkly Region.

There will be $1.5 million to produce a feasibility study to examine gas exploration areas in the Beetaloo hoping to find projects which could be accelerated to increase availability of gas into domestic markets.

The study would also investigate options to support gas flows to Darwin for export or use in downstream gas industries.

cont.......

Thanks for diggin Schlemiel. Its good to have a hound dog on their trail. Appreciate your diligence.

I still feel good about a June drilling date. Maybe you will find your juicy bone soon.

POQ once reported that the moratorium actually benefited Falcon by moving forward the timing of it's exit plans into the ever growing, ever increasing market demand coming out of Asia. While demand for LNG ramps up, commodity prices follow suit. Falcon may well be hitting a sweet-spot not only in its acreage play in the Beetaloo but also in its timing of the building market forces.

Cut out of Empire's letter to shareholders:

"Meanwhile, demand for LNG from Asia has soared in recent years and we expect this to continue as Asia’s
major economies continue to grow while seeking cleaner sources of reliable energy.

The emerging onshore shale gas fields of the Northern Territory stand to benefit materially from these
market forces. In January 2019, following the commissioning of the Northern Gas Pipeline which connects
Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory to Mount Isa in Queensland, gas supplies from the Northern
Territory were connected to the supply-constrained East Coast gas markets for the first time. Darwin is
already a major LNG liquefaction base with both the LNG plant operated by ConocoPhillips and the Ichthys
plant operated by Inpex exporting LNG to Asia.

The Northern Territory Government understands the substantial economic benefits that are derived from
responsible petroleum development and is implementing regulations which allow for the recommencement
of onshore shale gas development and promotes the development of downstream industries such as LNG
liquefaction and petrochemicals in Darwin and elsewhere."

June

Thanks OrsonM and Newtofo. Guess I'm getting a little too paranoid seeing LTG behind every bush. The next two to three months can't come soon enough - lets get this show on the road.

I still don't like the sound of this paragraph in the Petroleum Legislation Amendment Bill 2018. Maybe OrsonModesto has followed the parliamentary debate and passage and can give us his insight. Giving any person the right to have their proceedings heard in the supreme court sounds like a back door for delay to our environmentalist friends.

"Creating provisions for judicial review, with any person now able to have proceedings heard in the Supreme Court to challenge the lawfulness of particular decisions or determinations under the Petroleum Act 1984 and Petroleum (Environment) Regulations 2016 if they believe the legal process was not followed correctly."

Call me paranoid but living in the US, I have seen the environmentalist in conjunction with liberal courts play havoc with the oil industry for years. I just hope this is not a repeat downunder.