Member Info for WetWater

Namu: "I spoke to POQ today" - Did you because I didn't and didn't claim to? Maybe you need to re-read my post.

Quite honestly, I doubt that POQ's target is the retail investor. I suspect he is looking a little bit higher. You forget he is not in this stock to promote today's price - he's in it to sell in the next 1 1/2 - 2 years. Sorry bud but he is not focused on you or Poods.

While you are imagining 'plausible' scenarios why don't you use about .05 - .07 cents a share - Falcon traded at that level years ago. If you think that with 6.6 Tcf in their hip pocket and drilling around the corner you will see those prices then good luck.

Yep - POQ has told me on a couple of occasions that Falcon never reacts positively to what he considers fantastic news. This stock is a bit of a head scratcher and I am sure frustrates the hell out of people trying to trade this stock.

Signed - 'The Oracle' :^)

Nano: Is this coming from the guy who called some of the highest up in this program idots and morons?? Someday I might disclose to you who you are stooping so low as to call names - we will then see who knew more about this project - you or my source and I suspect you will have to eat your words. Funny how the Kyalla well has since been classified as an appraisal well when you claimed they knew little of nothing about that zone - it appears you missed much of the test data.. Much more is known regarding the Kyalla than even you with your self proclaimed knowledge know.

I assume you are some type of engineer in the petroleum industry but maybe behind a desk or calculator? Obviously you don't have much experienced with AFEs and JV operating agreements - If so you would understand that sometimes AFEs come out of nowhere and are typically out of the non-operators control - yes they have to be authorized but cost are cost - are you in or out of the project - do you consent or go non-consent - pretty binary decision. Non-consent penalties can get pretty devastating depending on the operating agreement - somewhere Falcon would not want to go. With that in mind neither POQ, myself or even Origin knew the full cost of these horizontally fracked wells a year or two or six years ago. We deal with what we know - things change, estimates change, regulations change, timelines change.

I stand by what you term my oracle claims though I admit I am not good at Nostradamus predictions. After many conversations/meetings with people regarding this project I suspect I still have a better overall perspective to this concession than you. You might should stick to your downhole knowledge/completion knowledge or whatever your specialty.

I guess I should apologize for being a little snarky but I am somewhat disappointed in your post - I always placed you much higher up the scale than you exhibit in your copy and paste ability.

Spazz: Just getting through today's post - couldn't agree more with your's. I think everyone needs to step back and take a deep breath. All this ruckus is a result of Origin presenting Falcon with its AFE (authorization for expenditures) for this year's drilling program. Nothing sinister on Phillip's or Origin's part - cost are what they are. In defense of POQ I suspect he was as surprised as we are at the increase of the AFE. He was planning on the $15 million carryover from stage 1 to cover the expected increases of the 2013 budgeted cost estimate. Looks like with the passage of time and the new regs put in place the cost of the project has increased. With drilling just around the corner, Origin has updated its estimated cost and formalized it in the expense authorization - Falcon has no choice or option - they have to cover the increase. Davy has recommended that the raise be done prior to drilling and not after Falcon's cash is spent down to its last $1million - probably good advise.

The project is still on schedule - looks to be the later part of June or the first of July - either way it happens this drilling season. I'm disappointed that the dilutions had to happen now at the worst possible time but it is what it is. POQ was presented with the final estimate and that estimate was out of his control so get over it! At the end of the project this will be a very small bump in the road.

cont.....

Ms Lawler also told Parliament the details on wastewater storage was contained in the environmental management plans

"They are the details that they will need to work through. We care for our flora and fauna in the Northern Territory but details on those levels-truly, I will not stand up here and talk to you about how to shoo away birds from dams."

Mr Kirby also said in drawing up its proposed code it had "listened to people that are experts in the field".

"With the codes of practice, there has been 31 recommendations required to allow exploration and drilling and hydraulic fracturing that have now been completed or will soon be completed, particularly once the codes of practice are finalised.

"We understand that there has been recommendations on tanks for wastewater storage. There is also some strong information coming from industry on the amount of evaporation that happens on these sites and that may be the best way to get rid of large amounts of wastewater. It is something we are working our way through.

"We take great pride that we take the time we need to get this right. It is an industry that will be here for a long time and they take pride in their professionalism and we continue to work closely with them."

He also said the government had received advice from the CSIRO on the development of its code on that and they were relating to surface activities, well operations, wastewater management and methane operations.

"There has been a lot of feedback. There will be improved scrutiny on EMPs and SRIBAs as well which will continue to make sure there is the right amount of scrutiny."

Ms Lawler also said: "We have put in place the legislation and those amendments to make sure that those environmental plans are there. It will then be up to those proponents to work through those environmental plans to show how they will make sure that the flora and fauna will not be impacted on those sites. That is the layer of detail."

Katherine Times
https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6127362/fracking-go-ahead-drilling-down-into-the-detail-and-shooing-away-birds/?cs=1459

Fracking go-ahead, drilling down into the detail and 'shooing away birds'

The NT Government has admitted changing key rules for the fledgling Territory shale gas industry.

NT Parliament was yesterday told a key recommendation of the Pepper inquiry had been altered after discussions with the gas industry.

In relation to the development of rules for the start of the on-shore gas industry, Primary Industry and Resources Minister Paul Kirby yesterday told Parliament the "the scientific approach is not the only approach. We also take our lead from industry as well".

In lifting the moratorium on the industry in April last year, Chief Minister Michael Gunner said: ""I want to assure all Territorians that we will faithfully implement all the recommendations of the report ..."

The report is the 135 recommendations which came from the long Pepper inquiry which the government said provided the blueprint for the industry to safely develop.

Two of those recommendations, the containment of toxic wastewater from the fracking process in sealed tanks, has been substantially changed in the proposed code of practice still being developed to govern development of the industry.

In that proposed code, the inquiry recommendations for sealed tanks have been changed.

Despite the proposed code have just closed for public comments, several gas companies have already released their Environmental Management Plans for approval so they can begin drilling.

The issue came under questioning in Parliament yesterday.

The Pepper inquiry recommendations came from fears about toxic spills, and also to prevent local wildlife such as threatened birdlife from drinking the water.

Environment and Natural Resources Minister Eva Lawler said it was not her job to "talk to you (Opposition) about how to shoo away birds from dams".

The government said industry wanted open tanks in the dry season to allow evaporation to concentrate the wastewater so there was less quantity to transport inter-state for destruction.

Mr Gunner said last year the independent scientific report into hydraulic fracturing "found that risks could be mitigated if all the recommendations of their report were implemented".

Mr Kirby agreed the scientific inquiry into hydraulic fracturing recommended having contained tanks for the water at all times.

"One of the suggestions, though, that has been talked about-and it was mentioned yesterday - was that during the dry season having open tanks or that opportunity to evaporate some of the waste water would be beneficial because it would then possibly cut down the number of trucks that have to take the waste water to be treated.

"If you are taking the wastewater off-site to be treated, if you can evaporate some of that off, that would assist in cutting the number of trucks.

"It is in the code of practice where we specifically talk about that but during the wet season, it would have to be closed tanks to stop rainwater inundation ...

Eagle: You're a cold hearted dude. A Gouldian finch might take a sip out of a wastewater pit - Never mind he might then fly into a wind turbine, LTG's preferred means of death, only to get chopped up.

Here in the Permian Basin we have desert sand lizards that are 'endangered'. Companies have to hire people to walk along any trench (which by the way has lizard exit ramps!) to insure that any lizard that might fall into a trench and can't locate it's exit ramp can be rescued by the trench attendant. How would you like to have that job on your resume.

Like you say - it's what they do.

cont...............

"The NT Government has accepted all 135 recommendations made by the Scientific Inquiry and is committed to implementing them in a staged approach."

In a second response following further questions from the Katherine Times, the government said the Code of Practice stated: "Control measures shall be implemented to prevent the interactions of wildlife, stock, and human receptors with produced water and flowback fluid storage facilities."

"These measures will be the responsibility of the operator to implement and will be detailed in their draft Environment Management Plan, which is assessed and considered under the Petroleum (Environment) Regulations 2016 by the Minister for Environment and Natural Resources. Such measures could include actions such as fencing, retractable covers and fauna-proof containment structures and daily monitoring of facilities during the drilling program.

"As the relevant EMPs progress through the assessment process, the NT Government will ensure that these commitments are appropriately reflected, and if not additional requirements may be imposed either in the EMP or as conditions of approval."

A spokeswoman for Lock the Gate said the risk of overtopping tanks in rain was not the only reason for the tanks to be enclosed.

The Pepper inquiry also recommended enclosed tanks on-site to hold wastewater in preference to open ponds "which would prevent access by wildlife".

Origin has released its Environment Management Plan for public comment which paves the way for the start of exploratory drilling and fracking at its Kyalla site, again near Daly Waters.

Origin says: "All flowback fluids will be stored in above-ground tanks and managed in accordance with the NT Petroleum Code of Practice.

"This includes the use of both open and covered double-lined tanks. During the dry season, the use of open-top tanks will be used to maximise evaporation.

"If flowback operations extend into the wet season, a hybrid combination of enclosed / covered tanks and open-top working tanks will be implemented. Flowback fluids will be stored in open-top tanks as much as possible, to maximise evaporation. Where a significant rainfall event is predicted, the total volume of flowback stored on-site will be transferred to the covered storage tanks within 72 hours and prior to the onset of the event."

Katherine Times Article
https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6125739/fears-the-nt-government-is-ignoring-frack-rules-to-fast-track-gas/?cs=1459

Fears the NT Government is ignoring frack rules to fast track gas
Chris McLennan
Local News
How an exploratory camp is set out but is there any danger of spills or can birds and other wildlife access toxic wastewater.

The NT Government has been accused of overlooking key advice for the fledgling Territory shale gas industry in order to speed its development.

Anti-fracking groups claim the government's proposed set of instructions for gas companies, its draft Code of Practice for Onshore Petroleum Activities, does not follow the Pepper recommendations as promised.

Chief Minister Michael Gunner last year controversially lifted the moratorium on the development of an onshore gas industry saying the NT was protected by the expert work done by the Pepper inquiry.

Mr Gunner promised all 135 recommendations of the inquiry "would be implemented in full".

Groups like Lock the Gate Alliance and Protect Country Alliance have seized on one small part of the code of practice to demonstrate what it claims is a "watering down" of the Pepper recommendations.

The Pepper inquiry has two recommendations in its final report that energy companies must use enclosed tanks for their wastewater on site.

This was to prevent toxic spills, particularly after heavy rain, and so local wildlife like the threatened Gouldian Finch could not drink from the tanks.

There is still nowhere in the NT to dispose of the wastewater which must be transported to Queensland for destruction.

NT Government authorities want miners to able to use evaporation to reduce the amount of wastewater to be transported.

A spokesman for Primary Industry Minister Paul Kirby said the Government has worked with independent scientific experts, including the CSIRO, to develop the draft code.

A government spokesman said the proposed Code did not include "substantial deviations" from the scientific inquiry.

The spokesman said the Government will review all feedback and finalise the Code of Practice which will be legally enforceable on all gas companies operating in the NT.

"In relation to that recommendation, the outcome intended by the Inquiry's recommendation (7.12) was that the use of closed tanks was to prevent the risk of tanks overflowing caused by rainwater inundation. This outcome has been maintained in the draft Code of Practice.

"In the wet season there's an elevated risk that high-intensity rainfall will cause the tanks to overflow, therefore the Code of Practice requires companies to provide for enclosed tanks in these times.

cont......

BO: IMO you are correct on the the Santo EMP and how long it takes to get it officially approved - That will give us a good benchmark for what to expect for Origin. Obviously there is still a large contingent of sellers/potential buyers thinking that Falcon misses the 2019 drilling season. That is not the drum POQ keeps beating. He basically said the 'doubters' will be caught with their pants down. I would think that once Santos is given the nod the 'doubters' will begin rethinking their position. POQ has made it pretty clear that the rig has been reserved and paid for and scheduled to drill in June - the NT is the only fly in the ointment right now - once that becomes clearer I would look for the price to firm up.

Of course I have been looking for the price to 'firm-up' for months so I admit I've been very wrong on that prediction. I for one am not too concerned what the day to day price action might be - I am in this for the long haul - the final sell. I am, however, puzzled as to lack of interest in Falcon though I still drink the kool-aid and planning for drilling this next month.Time will tell.

Not much else POQ can add at this point. It's not effective to keep repeating the same old information - that's what a two year moratorium does to you. Once drilling begins he has promised to keep the news flow going.

Schlemiel: I've got inquiries out regarding Petrohunter's bankruptcy but have yet to get an answer - I suspect it won't be long. IMO whomever ends up with these shares will be through a single block trade. That being the case we will know the holder due to the size of the position.

I'm still thinking Hilcorp comes into play at some point - there was a reason behind that board appointment beyond this guy just having shale experience in South Texas.

Anxious to hear the ruling on the Santos EMP. That will give us a pretty good clue as to what might lie ahead for the Origin EMP. I suspect whoever is doing the review has already reviewed the draft that was put out ahead of time - If there had been a sticking point or two it likely would have been made know to Origin before the final was submitted for official review.

BO: That's right, there technically are 4 seperate wells. Two vertical wells (one in the Kyalla and one in the Velkerri) - if each vertical well lands in its zone and looks to hold potential then Origin will move back up hole and whip out a 1000 meter lateral on each which will be fracked and tested - each lateral is technically considered 'a well'. The program is to drill lateral 1000 METER wells - we are talking meters - not feet - a big difference. The 2020 full scale wells will be 3000 meters which is approximately 10,000 feet - even more than you thought would be required.

Rich: I am not sure how the EMP filings work. The 3000 meters (10,000 feet) laterals are scheduled for two 2020 wells which will be drilled to prove-up commerciality. This year there will be a 1000 meter lateral test in the Kyalla well and also the Velkerri wet gas if that zone looks to hold potential. 1000 meters is what was drilled in the Amungee well thought only 600 meters was actually fracked due to a casing deformation. If the EMP states this then this same EMP will likely be used for next year's program.

As to cost, these wells are much more expensive than future wells will be - once development begins there is a great efficiency in multiple wells once Origin reaches that stage of development. At that point Origin can put a rig on a pad and drill 16 seperate wells. That will avoid rig moving, allow multiple wells to be fracked without moving, allow worker camp setup, reuse of some injection water, etc, etc. They can then move over three to four miles and repeat on an adjoining pad. At this point they will have the infrastructure in place to do year-around drilling.

I liked that the Proactive article pointed out that the Beetaloo has access to highways, railroads and pipelines. Seems the lack of infrastructure and remoteness seems to be the talking point du jour. If the Beetaloo proves commercial then the necessary infrastructure build-out will follow but then Falcon won't be around to experience that expense.

Great news on the official submittal - now the clock is beginning to tick off the 28 day public comment period, I noticed this submittal is for the Kyalla only - It will be slightly modified for the Velkerri well and submitted in a month or two. They may wait for the comment period to end in case they need to modify the second submission.

JS490 - The testing window looks to be covering both wells with the January 2020 date. I suspect this is a conservatively long window to cover themselves. If drilling starts in the middle of June, October would be about 100 days after drilling initiates. Allowing 30- 45 days of drilling and 30 - 45 for fracking then 100 days might be about right. After the technical fracking is done, there will be an extended period of time that the injected fracking water will need to be recovered (produced) from the well. Origin won't be able to formally test the well until it unloads that frack fluid.

While some of this Kyalla activity is taking place the Velkerri well will be drilled. Ideally I would think the rig would be moved directly to the second location and set up. The same will happen on the fracking units, clean-up and testing. POQ plans to have test results on both wells before the next AGM. He predicted there would be lots of smiles at this next years meeting! The date of that meeting has not been set but I am looking for it in December - that is just my guess.

Phillip has indicated on several occasions that there will be lots of news releases once drilling commences. Hopefully they would give us some type of clue as to what things look like but then again companies tend to hold that close to the vest until a well is officially tested. On the Velkerri well it could be short and sweet. If the vertical test doesn't look promising then the lateral will not be drilled. If that is the case maybe they move up north and offset the Amungee well. If that is in the plans then there should be another EMP coming out to cover that potential well site.

Exciting times ahead

Thanks Naminanu for bringing to the board. A great well balanced article IMO and it is nice to see Falcon getting some mentions. I agree that Bloomberg carries more weight.

I had to chuckle at the follow quote:

"Environment groups say the potential economic benefits of the Northern Territory gas fields have been overstated."

“We make more money from our Northern Territory watermelon industry than we are predicted to make from fracking,” said Pauline Cass from Protect NT.

I need to invite Pauline out to the Permian Basin in West Texas and have her repeat that with a straight face - she has NO idea what this industry is going to bring to the NT's economy. We currrently have truck drivers that can pass a drug test and have clean records making $200,000 a year. The service industry that will grow in support of the Beetaloo field will be mind boggling. Watermelons #%$%%^^ my arse!!

Schlemiel: I don't know what this means. I have sent an email to someone that should know. I will let you know what I find out when I get an answer.

I'm not an attorney but it seems if the debtor (Petrohunter) can sell assets free and clear of any interest that sounds promising.

Rich - I believe this may be what you intended to post a link for:At its current burn rate, Falcon has about 3 years of operating cash to cover its remaining 2 years of drilling and appraisal work. They will probably need to bring in an institution or have a small raise for the ORRI and the engineering cost of appraisal and sell package at the end of the 2020 program. Once we have success in the 2020 stage 3 drilling program raising what little additional funds Falcon will require should not be a problem. If Falcon elects to participate in additional JV drilling at that point the dilution rate for a raise will be minimal and they would only do that if they see multiples of the raise on the up side. All is good.https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/219079/falcon-oil--gas-in-good-financial-health-ahead-of-new-drill-programme-219079.html

Sure JS490 - I understand that concern - it's probably in the back of lots of peoples minds. I am just saying that from the intent of Origin/Falcon/Santos - they seem to see nothing keeping them from proceeding on schedule. If the NT suddenly throws a wrench in the works it will be totally unexpected from what POQ indicated - as far as he is concerned its full steam ahead. Lets watch Santos as they proceed towards drilling - I expect they will beat us to the hole.

Like you and many, I will breathe a sigh of relief once the rig is in place and drilling begins. After living with the moratorium two years we are all a little jumpy when it comes to the NT actions.

Yes - That has been 'abandoned'. What I was initially told was not correct as I pointed out in a recent post if you are following this board - Thanks for asking and thanks for your continued useless input. You are up to 16 without any value added - You are on a roll - keep it up.

Schlemiel: That is my been my understanding all along. The 'trustees' are liquidating Falcon stock to pay for its Chapter 7 voluntary filing. Hopefully this gets stopped pretty quick. I am still hearing that what someone wants out of the BR is the land holdings - Falcon stock is being sold to help facilitate acquisition of those holdings and pay the way of the bankruptcy. A conversion to a Chapter 11 will stop a lot of this nonsense and freeze those open market sells.

Much of this IMO.

JS490: POQ made it very clear that drilling would commence in June as scheduled. If that is the case then I am sure they stick to plan and frack and test the Kyalla, drill the Velkerri wet gas and if it looks promising frack and test it. This was the original 2019 schedule and if things are on schedule as POQ said then my money is that those wells get fracked and tested - why would you doubt it? There has been a lot of planning over the last two years to make this happen. They need to gather all this information in 2019 so that they can assess results and formulate a best plan for the two 2020 full blown horizontal wells. If they don't start on schedule then it will be because of something currently not foreseen and out of their control.

My question is if the Velkerri wet gas doesn't look positive do they have time to move back up north with an offset to the Amungee well. That was part of the original 2019 program to be sure and end the season on a positive note - I haven't seen mention of that lately. The Amungee well might be dependent on just how long of a window the prior two wells take to drill (not frack or test as that is independent of drilling).

Seems many want to continually question the Origin/Falcon scheduling. Origin has reserved the rig, paid in full for the rig and fully intend to stay on schedule. I know well testing is scheduled to possibly run through November so all that is on the planning board.

I look for Origin's EMP to be submitted in the next couple of weeks. Santos has already submitted theirs so they are out front - we will see what kind of arrows they catch - hopefully things run smoothly for them. Speaking of Santos, they will be drilling three Velkerri wells - though deeper it is the same formation and will give Origin good insight into future drilling. Those three wells, if productive, will help prove up Falcon's Velkerri B potential - Santos is drilling our 'stuff ' which is a good thing!