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Or maybe they have already had conversations with ?????
The Board has considered the Indicative Proposal and has unanimously determined to reject the offer as it
does not represent sufficient value for Newcrest shareholders.
"....with increasing copper exposure and a high-quality development pipeline. "
If you really had been following since October and had read the RNSs, then you'd know all abut the Sience day.
Binned.
Besides, if I was the CEO of a company on the cusp of coming up with a worldwide transformative cancer drug, with the potential to propel the company you lead to great heights, then....... I wouldn't want to have a sniff of any insider dealing risking jail time and a destroyed career..
I'd release all on the day, not gamble.
nuance it however you like @MB.
Basic fact is, if they are releasing information to a select group of people without informing the same information to all shareholders, then that is insider trading and is illegal. Period.
The clarifications and or graphs explaining in detail will all be regarded as potentially sensitive so need to be released. The companies Compliance officer would have kittens if what you say was proposed.....
Er, no.
If price sensitive information is to be released on the science day, then they must release this to shareholders at the same time. That is MUST......
Giving fund managers time to adjust their positions first is actually illegal.....
No way - say it slow and savour it.
That is my preferred outcome and will turn GGP into an important mid cap miner in AUS. The long term outlook is the best with this outcome.
Don't like it? So go play elsewhere if this game is too much for you.
On the 16th (late evening on the 15th for us) is the timetable for NCM's half year results.
If defending, then this is a likely time for a defence document to be issued, possibly an updated MRE (company wide which could include HAV). Maybe even the delayed DFS for HAV? Certainly updated profit forecasts and dividend announcements. This is, of course, if they want to improve the balance sheet in this way.
They could defend, raising cash by selling off non productive assets (e.g. HAV), and/or closing up some JV's that they see little short term return from (e.g. Juri). For this option they will need in place the outline of a deal and would be in smoke filled rooms (if that is allowed these days!) with GGP, Wyloo et al this weekend.
All this will be under the radar at the moment and we will not get to hear until the hammer falls.
It is the win/win scenario. NCM show better and bigger and sooner productive assets - HAV to a tier 1 perhaps, giving GGP an uplift in value OR GGP gets a shot at first refusal to pick up the remaining 70% of HAV along with Telfer and a collection of Patterson assets (JV's) at a fire sale value.
Softly softly mon braves....
Telfer is the key to the whole area. Simples.
NCM cannot sell Telfer in on its own. Look at the current AISC vs gold price along with the available ore. It is a massive financial hole that will cost dearly in remediation costs once it is closed down. It has a nil or negative value on its own, it needs substantial and profitable ore to continue to exist.
NCM cannot sell their share of HAV without providing processing facilities (i.e. Telfer) nor can they sell without offering it to GGP as per the JV agreement. So there is (from NCM's point of view) an uncompetitive potential auction for HAV alone. They would still be on the hook for AISC +10% for the 30% they don't control (ours) and any buyer for the remaining 70% will insist on guarantees over processing facilities. With no DTM nor an updated MRE, the 70% will be undervalued.
It NCM do cobble together a deal for HAV(70%)/Telfer combined to anyone, then they will be left with all their other JV's in the area and no facilities to service them. So what do they do with these? Drop them and lose the investment that has been spent or include them within the overall deal.
Can they get a large sum of cash on a fire sale of either/both? Who knows, but if they just need to reduce potential costs to improve their balance sheet (to defend the bid), then they may well have to accept some sort of earnout deal.
If NCM recommend the buyout, they could leave everything unchanged for the new owners to face the same set of issues. Not a problem if the buyout is to gain production of future assets, but if the buyout is to gain ounces now, then the new owners may look to sell off non productive assets.
So, again Telfer is key.
Telfer could turn out to be an even bigger prize than the 5% present we have in the bag....
You need to look at the whole picture, not micro focus on only Telfer.
I saw the AZ decision news as well.
Not good for the UK, but I am happy with their decision - I have a good holding there and this is good for (their) shareholder value. I may help concentrate the minds within UK PLC...... or not.... who knows?
I had it down as costs plus 10% too.
But Hav is going to be a lot more than 7moz, so speedy's numbers are wrong.
We will (may) still need processing for Juri, SWAG, Ruddal etc (if anything meaningful found) plus any other explorer's ore could be in play too.
Telfer is the key for the whole area......
Any use for us?
https://twitter.com/SciTechgovuk/status/1623939825559564290
https://twitter.com/SciTechgovuk/status/1623939825559564290
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
With NCM on the defence to a bid, all bets are off!
Will they drop an updates MRE for HAV at the same time? The delayed DFS maybe? A complete NCM wide resource update (including HAV? .............. (insert any other defensive measure to bolster shareholder value here)?
I'll be up late on the 15th watching with interest...
That's an expensive bet @Fruits....
You know you have to pay for each and every day you choose on the sweepstake board!
How do I turn off that dreaded autocorrect? not 'sew', obvioulsy. Sow....it should be!
I think he (and the rest of the team will be somewhat busy for now.....
Unlikely for him to say anything unless and until things get a lot clearer. If there are deals to be done (I fully expect SD to move on whatever he can), then saying anything may give away his strategy. Then again, he might be able to use any free publicity to sew some seeds....
I'd say unlikely to hear much, but there may be some other stuff announced that adds value to GGP. Some good drill results from SWAG wouldn't do any harm....
That'll be the DFS @ 5eights - along with the DTM (of course).
our ASX listing brought forward (in case we need room to play)? possible.
Updated MRE from GGP - unlikely.
Updated MRE from NCM - possible.
DFS released by NCM - possible.
Competing bid for NCM from a.n.other - highly possible.
NCM puts up Telfer - Havieron in a fire sale to raise cash - possible.
lots more that may well happen!
So many ways this can pan out....
Just happy we have the right team in place (and the right IIs in play) to take advantage.
There's always the possibility of an much larger JV spin off company owned by GGP and the new owner of NCM (at what spit?) to manage HAV, Telfer and all the prior NCM JVs in the area. Now that would be a nice asset for our team to get their claws into.
The cards have been shuffled - but not yet fully dealt!