Member Info for welloilbeefooked

Is Greek for Rockrose :)

Hello All,

I think the 2026 guidance is AA underpromising to overdeliver. We exit 2025 at over 22000 boe, there’s still more to come from Jotun, - there’s at least 4 more to come online at Balder, absolutely massive upside in Oman and earnings from the gas storage business to factor in. Also remember they can now buy back up to 25% of the shares and Ireally think we’re in for a phenomenal year. I doff my hat to Andrew and all the team.

You have absolutely no idea about the difference between the structural and equity setup of a group of companies and the cash flows inside those companies. You are now binned for being tedious and hard of thinking in equal measure

If enough people email info@predatoroilandgas.com and ask whether the revenue agreement has to be split 51/49 with WIEGL then we might get an official answer. Steeldrum is split 51/49% on EQUITY which is quite different from REVENUE . That is my final word on this until definive proof is delivered.

Page 23 of the presentation, point 7 :

"Effective 1 Sept 2025 third party to manage all operational aspects under a revenue sharing Production and Field Services Agreement with technical operator share 70% and PRD to retain 30% of gross revenue less tax and licence royalties". That is at the parent company level and is borne out by the gross sales and net revenue figures i posted before.

What is effectively a royalty receipt at parent level is a business expense at subsidiary level

Gudin, you don’t think I’m getting it and vice versa. We will find out soon enough so no hard feelings either way. FWIW my take is the 51/49 split applies to equity,not the PAFSMA contractual royalty. The Dec 17 RNS reports $200k net revenue from $806k gross—that is 25%, not the 7.5%–15% you are claiming. The latest RNS confirms an effective tax rate of 12.5% across the 30% share, which is only possible if PRD is utilizing its full tax shield against the entire revenue stream. WIEGL's return is via services and equipment provided to the JVf and potentially a Change of Control payout, not the 30% top-slice royalty.Over and out from me for today. Have a good evening.

Wrong. I’ll leave it with this :

“This provides for more efficient utilisation of legacy tax losses acquired following restructuring of the companies acquired in 2025” - restructuring is an interesting word.

As at 31/10/25 gross revenues $806,051, Predator NET revenues $200,810 - I make that 24.9%

Gudin, you’re welcome to your opinion, which i think is completely wrong. You’re confusing an equity share with a top slice revenue deal. As for WIEGL, they’ll be doing very nicely out of the operator deal and there’s the little matter of the change of control clause at the back end to factor in. We’ll find out who’s correct soon enough.

Contd....

The only person losing out in this structure is the "Subsidiary" itself, which remains a low-value shell while the Parent (PRD) and the Contractor (NABI) take all the cash.

DYOR

There's been several posters putting forward the idea that PRD effectively only gets 7.5% of new oil revenue and 15% of old. A bit of research shows thatt is almost certainly incorrect and we get the full 15% and 30% respectively.

the Master Services Agreement (MSA) is a contract between the Parent Company (Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC) and NABI. Because it is a service-based royalty agreement, the money flows to the Parent before it ever reaches the "net profit" line of the subsidiary where the 51/49 split with WIEGL would occur.1. The Proof: Key RNS DocumentsYou can find these documents on any financial portal (Investegate, London Stock Exchange, or the PRD website). Here are the specific dates and the "smoking gun" quotes:RNS DateDocument TitleThe Conclusive QuoteJan 7, 2026Trinidad Increased Production"Predator receives 30% of gross sales revenues from existing production less taxes and royalties and 15% of new production until recovery of NABI costs... Predator has no exposure to current and future field operating costs."Sept 1, 2025Completion of Acquisition"In accordance with the PAFSMA, the Company [Predator] will receive 30% of gross sales receipts at the sales point... with no exposure to field operating costs."Dec 16, 2025End of Year Operations Update"Predator receives 30% of gross sales revenues... after restructuring of the companies acquired in 2025. This provides for more efficient utilisation of legacy tax losses."2. Why it doesn't get split 51/49 with WIEGLIn the February 18, 2025 RNS (Acquisition of Challenger Assets), the structure was finalized. The reason you don't halving that 15% or 30% is due to the legal definition of the payment:The "Top-Slice" vs. "Bottom-Line": A 51/49 split applies to Dividends (money left over after all bills are paid). But the 15/30% is a Gross Revenue Share. It is taken right at the "sales point" (the South Erin gathering station).The Parent Contract: The MSA is held by the PLC. NABI pays the PLC a "management fee" (the 15/30%) in exchange for the right to operate the fields.The "Zero-Margin" Sub: Because NABI takes 70% and Predator takes 30% of the gross revenue, the subsidiary (Caribbean Rex) technically has zero net income from those barrels. Therefore, there is nothing for WIEGL to take 49% of in that specific transaction.3. The "Tax Shield" ConfirmationThe December 16, 2025 RNS also confirms that Predator uses its $48 million in tax losses against this revenue. Since those tax losses are owned by the Predator group, it further proves that the revenue is being booked by Predator. If the money were being split 51/49 at the sub-level, Predator wouldn't be able to apply its full tax shield to WIEGL's half of the money.Summary of the "Conclusive" RealityPredator's Take: 15% (New) / 30% (Old) of Gross Sales.WIEGL's Take: 0% of that specific 15/30% slice. They make their money by providing the services/equipment used by the JV and their "Change of Control" payout.The Risk: The only person losing

Blissful, can i add KIST into that list? Andrew Austin of Rockrose fame is priming the pumps, massively growing production and definitely one that’s going under the radar imo.

Please dyor

Thanks pv72,

PG has at least a couple of million of his cash invested here, a lot of it at higher prices than we’re trading at today. And he took another big paper loss today. The real question is why raise for a drill that could have been slotted straight into the NABI portfolio? And the answer is simple, PG expects to make an awful lot more from going it alone. He has the data, he knows what they produced from 6ft of sand at the top, wonder what he’s extrapolating for the 594 ft beneath that gets more pressurised with every ft?

Not for the faint hearted but the upside is huge and I’m a patient man.

Surfit, hope you ten bag from here👍

Dsymons - instead of posting complete lies, do a bit of cursory research - another one in the bin! Here's what i have found on PG purchases after one quick search, there are probably others but I can't be bothered -

1. Direct Market Purchases (Cash Outlay)

These are "on-market" buys where he used personal funds to purchase shares at the prevailing market price:

May 2023: Purchased 3,328,119 shares at 10.0p (Investment: ~£332,800).

November 2022: Two purchases totaling 7,855,486 shares at an average of ~3.9p (Investment: ~£304,600).

February 2020: Purchased 312,500 shares at 4.0p (Investment: ~£12,500).

2. Option Exercises (Capital Injection)

While options are "incentives," exercising them requires the director to pay the exercise price to the company. This acts as a direct injection of cash into the business:

February 2025: Exercised 18.5 million options at 5.0p (Cash paid to company: £925,000).

May 2023: Exercised 7,855,486 options at 8.0p (Cash paid to company: £628,400).

Contd....

2. Protecting the "Major" M&A Valuation

Griffiths’ commentary highlights his goal of attracting Oil Majors (BP, Shell, Exxon).

Clean Assets: Majors prefer buying companies with high working interests and "clean" operations. If Predator had NABI funding SC-3, any potential buyer would have to negotiate with NABI to "buy out" their revenue share.

Operational Proof: By drilling SC-3 themselves, Predator proves they have the technical and financial "know-how" to manage high-impact appraisal wells. This increases the "Premium" a Major might pay in a buyout scenario.

3. Why Now? The "Funding Gap" Reality

While the company previously stated it was "fully funded," that usually applies to minimum license commitments.

Discretionary vs. Mandatory: Infill drilling like TPD CD1 is mandatory/funded via NABI. SC-3 is a discretionary appraisal.

The Balance Sheet: As of mid-2025, Predator’s loss widened to £1.9m. With production at 387 bopd, the company is generating revenue but not yet enough "Free Cash" to write a £3 million cheque for a 5,300-foot appraisal well.

The Strategic Reset: By raising £4.5m at 3.5p, Griffiths has "reset" the valuation but removed the financing risk. The company is now a "funded producer" rather than a "starved producer."

Summary: The Accretive Bet

This raise is intended to be exceptionally accretive. Paul Griffiths has essentially "traded" 15% of the company's equity for the cash to keep 100% of the Snowcap prize.

If SC-3 hits the #1 and #2 sands and moves 20M barrels into the 2P category, the value added to the company would be worth many times the £4.5m raised. For a medium-term investor, the 3.5p entry price (post-placing) represents a valuation that essentially ignores the 57-million-barrel upside.

I had a little chat with my AI pal as follows :

Market reaction to the Predator Oil & Gas RNS this morning has been to drop the share price by around 25% , looks like news may have leaked as there was also a sharp drop yesterday afternoon prior to the rns this morning. Paul Griffiths is the largest shareholder in PRD and has seen a massive paper loss on his shareholding today. He must have known the effect the dilution would cause as this has happened several times in the past. Is this raise going to be exceptionally accretive for shareholders? Why else would PG do this when he could have allowed NABI to conduct the drilling and just let predator take the normal revenue share?

The sharp share price drop in Predator Oil & Gas (PRD) leading up to the January 20, 2026 RNS suggests the market was "sniffing out" a dilutive event. While a 30% drop is painful, your theory that Paul Griffiths (the largest individual shareholder at ~6.7%) is doing this for long-term accretion is backed by the specific structure of the NABI Master Services Agreement (MSA).

Here is the "Rational Investor" breakdown of why Paul Griffiths chose dilution today over the NABI partnership for the Snowcap-3 (SC-3) well.

1. 100% Ownership vs. 30% Revenue Share

The most critical reason for this raise is equity ownership of the "Moonshot."

The NABI Model: Under the existing MSA, NABI funds the drilling and workovers in fields like Bonasse and Goudron. In return, Predator only receives 30% of gross revenues (dropping to 15% during cost recovery).

The SC-3 "Sole Op" Model: Today's RNS explicitly states that SC-3 will be "operated solely by the Company." By raising £4.5 million, Paul Griffiths is ensuring that Predator keeps 100% of the interest in the potential 56.9 million barrels of 3P resources.

The Maths: If SC-3 is a hit and produces 1,000 bopd, 100% of that cash flow belongs to Predator shareholders rather than being split with a contractor. For the largest shareholder, a 15% dilution today is a small price to pay to avoid "giving away" 70% of the upside on the company’s most valuable well.

Have a look at the unfolding story on KIST guys, Andrew Austin is replicating Rockrose.

GLA

Targeting 57m boe

If they get 5% of that it’s over 2.5m boe - at $50 that’s around $120m gross

Everything else is free

Why would PG let NABI take 70% of that?

No problem ppywgda, the link BRV posted to AA’s interview with Malcy is well worth visiting. Among a lot of other info he says we’re coming out of a period of heavy capex - i think $400m dollars is mentioned somewhere- so we’re going to start reaping the rewards of that. Also great to hear him saying they don’t want to just be a revenue company, they’re turning down all sorts of opportunities, the price has to be right. He’s totally aligned with each and every shareholder. I’m buying .

Or is the market catching on to how undervalued this is?

GLA