Member Info for welloilbeefooked

ES, really good of you to appear here today to help us all with our investments. It’s so kind when someone pops up from nowhere and fills the board with a litany of negativity over the course of a single day and all they’re trying to do is help.

Binned

Seis, prior to selling out I had been invested here for 17 years. I still read and follow Jubilee pretty much every day and I may buy back once the dust settles. You’re inferring I’m deramping but you’re wrong, I’m asking a perfectly valid question about very large intercompany loans to our SA businesses.

If the purchase offer of $90m means we write off everything loaned to the SA businesses then that makes the disposal transaction much worse in my eyes.

If the offer of $90m means the loans transfer to the buyer which they then have to repay, the disposal becomes markedly better, again in my eyes, hence the question to the finance gurus here.

There are some big numbers sitting on the intercompany loans page 135 of the 2024 annual report, can anyone work out what effect this will have if we need to write off the SA balances as part of the sale?

Once more than you, twat. Just saying..

You’ve changed your tune JY, told people to fill their boots on 21st July. Thanks for all your helpful insight.

Filtered

If we’ve already cleared a substantial amount of formation damage and got close to the edge, is it possible to reperforate using the same guns and charges to see if that promotes flow? Apologies if a daft question.

You’re welcome NoTimeTolouse, it’s a setback but there are plenty of positives too. Massive over reaction this morning imo.

Good luck with your investments.

Apologies, cut off :

The use of the terms like “fine-grained unconsolidated sands” actually suggests very good reservoir potential — the challenge is in how you drill them.

This isn’t the end of the Morocco story — it’s likely the beginning of a more refined, better-informed phase, namely MOU-6.

I asked the following question and received the attached response:

Are the problems outlined in this morning's PRD rns really serious to the future success of the business in Morocco or are there positive indications regarding the proposed MOU-6 drilling plan? Also, what does the phrase "fine grained and unconsolidated sand intervals" used in the RNS mean for a non technical person like myself?

The problems outlined in this morning’s RNS (1 August) are not terminal or necessarily damaging to Predator Oil & Gas’s future in Morocco — in fact, there are several positive indications, especially regarding the proposed MOU-6 well. Let’s go through your questions in plain English:

Are the problems in the RNS really serious?

Short answer: Not necessarily — they’re technical setbacks, not deal-breakers.

What Predator said:

They’ve successfully perforated (opened) a gas-bearing interval.

But gas hasn’t flowed yet — likely due to “formation damage” caused by drilling mud invading the rock and clogging it.

This is a common issue in soft, shallow gas reservoirs, especially when the wrong type of drilling fluid is used.

It’s frustrating, but this doesn’t mean there's no gas. In fact, gas had flowed naturally into the well during drilling last year — proving gas is the

Are there positive signs?

Yes, especially regarding the MOU-6 well, which they now consider the "key appraisal well." Key positives:

They’ve learned from the mistakes at MOU-3 (overbalanced drilling and formation damage).

MOU-6 will target multiple gas-bearing layers, including ones already proven in MOU-3 and others up to 950m deep.

They’ll use a different type of drilling fluid to avoid damaging the formation again.

This well will also test the deeper Jurassic target, which could be even bigger.

Also:

Pressure build-up was noted after testing — a good sign that gas is trying to move.

They have very shallow targets with low drilling costs, giving them more flexibility than deep offshore wells.

What does “fine grained and unconsolidated sand intervals” mean?

Imagine the reservoir rock like a sponge — you want it to be:

Porous (full of holes to hold gas),

And permeable (able to let gas flow through).

“Fine-grained” means:

The grains of sand in the rock are tiny, almost like silt or very soft beach sand.

This can create excellent storage space for gas.

“Unconsolidated” means:

The sand isn’t tightly packed or turned to solid rock yet — think of it like wet sugar or flour, not like hard sandstone.

Why it matters:

These kinds of sands can hold lots of gas, but

They’re very easily damaged when heavy drilling fluids get into them — which is exactly what happened at MOU-3.

Bottom Line

The issues at MOU-3 are engineering-related, not evidence of a failed reservoir.

Predator understands what went wrong and is applying that knowledge to MOU-6.

The use of the

That’s quality word soup

I aked Chatgpt to interpret the following paragraph from the last placing Rns (obviously with a view to explain the wording used being "development" rather than "exploration" or "discovery" - "Additional funds will help drive the next stage of our operations in Morocco focussed on the optimum gas development option under the terms of our collaboration agreement for gas marketing with our local partner."

The response:

This provides a very strong hint that Predator believes it has already found gas and is now focusing on how best to develop and monetise it. Here's the breakdown:

Key Phrases and Their Implications

“Next stage of our operations”

Implies the exploration stage is largely complete, and they are progressing towards development — usually a sign they have something worth developing.

“Optimum gas development option”

Suggests they are evaluating multiple ways to produce and monetise the gas (e.g., CNG vs pipeline tie-in).

This kind of assessment usually happens after confirming the presence of gas — especially when it's potentially commercial.

“Collaboration agreement for gas marketing with our local partner”

This is a major commercial clue. A gas marketing agreement implies:

There is enough confidence in the gas volumes to begin commercial negotiations.

They are preparing to sell gas, not just drill more exploration wells.

Their partner sees economic value in the project too.

What This Suggests

Together with the earlier extract, this strongly supports the idea that Predator has encountered gas in Morocco in meaningful quantities, and while it may not yet be officially booked as a commercial discovery, the company clearly believes it is commercially viable — at least to the point where it is securing marketing partnerships and planning the development phase.

Final Interpretation

While the RNS avoids the definitive language of “discovery”, “flow-tested commercial rates”, or “contingent resources”, the combination of:

Discussion of development options,

Reference to a gas marketing agreement, and

Requests for additional funding to move ahead,

strongly indicates that Predator has likely found gas in Morocco that they believe is commercially viable, pending formal confirmation.

Further reinforces my belief we should not be selling SA to anyone. Also in their financials for the qtr, ave realised price is around $1600, it’s around $1900 so far in July I believe.

The fact remains that the loan notes are secured against Mako so if and when there’s a sale there’s around $9m going straight to the holders. Either that or they convert at 2.5p. And interest is accruing at 20%

Thanks Seis, completely missed that.

Hi Seis, apologies, been here a long time, can you expand on the reference to DMS upgrading material ten times ? That has passed me by for sure, not suggesting you’re incorrect, more wondering what’s going on with my reading and research!

“NO NEWS IS ALWAYS BAD NEWS SO I JUST MAKE UP MY OWN”

There, I’ve fixed that for you Chef.

No concerns over the rainy season weather if you listen to Bernard in the May investor presentation

Frogkid - nailed it for me

4everlong, I agree there’s a risk of underhand management practices being at play here. The mitigation of that risk for me is Slater’s invovement, they’ve a pretty impeccable reputation and the fact their CFO is hands on brings some comfort.

Gotreal, in the unlikely event JLP retain the massive stockiple of ore, what do you think we’ll do with it if the new owners are immediately shipping and processing their own ore?