Member Info for welloilbeefooked

1755 - If I was having a stab at the free cash % I’d estimate 35% to 45% of ebitda

I honestly think Andrew may have pulled off the deal of the century here. When you strip it back, he’s effectively bought around 25 million barrels of 2P, cheap-to-produce, onshore oil in a very stable jurisdiction. Once you net off the cash that Kistos will receive from the 2025 production because of the effective date, I reckon the real purchase price is closer to $100m than the headline $148m. That puts the barrels at roughly $4 each, which is astonishing in today’s market. Assuming the deal completes as expected, I think the FY2025 numbers are going to surprise a lot of people, and by FY2026 we could be looking at EBITDA that’s close to the current market cap. Feels like a rerating is coming, in my opinion.

2 x £3m buys at the close on Friday. Somene’s confident!

Gudin, it’s in the RNS - “ Using 2025 actual Predator net revenue receipts this is forecast to generate between a five to ten fold increase in monthly production revenues depending on a successful outcome to operations and the prevailing oil price (average monthly Predator share of sales revenues for September and October 2025 US$100,405).”

Surely it’s easy to get consistent modest oil out of 25 fracs ? Shouldn’t the message have been “currently modest but improving rates” ?

Thank you oh wise one! Take a 70% hit or bottom drawer it. All I’ve done here is point out that Alkaid-2 hasn’t exactly been a roaring success has it. My main hope here is that they’re being ultra conservative with the wording given the past over hyped guff. GLA

Hope you’re right Bluesquare but I need over 200% to before I can broach the subject of how this one’s doing with my better half…

To reference this initial result as a reasonable match with what happened or is happening at the SMD- B interval doesn’t fill me with confidence either. Hope I’m wrong though as this is now in the bottom drawer for the forseeable along with a few others

I asked AI to go back over all the placings it could reference for Jubilee Metals and Jubilee Platinum (for those who remember) and asked for a total sterling value for money raised. I also only asked for the last 15 years. It came up with somewhere between £70m to £75m. I think that tells you why the SP is where it is.

Leon has earned a small fortune out of shareholders, he's barely put his hand in his pocket to back up his fine words by buying shares and he sits on multi million discounted share options.

JLP is essentially now a one trick pony in a risky country run by a serial non achiever imo. As you can probably tell I am still out.

Makeabundle, I’m hoping PRD will be the catalyst which allows you to change your moniker to the past tense! I’ll be a wealthy man the day you do😂

Our thanks should go again to Yuri for one of the posts of the year imo. I’d have ticked it up ten times myself if I could. For me, it’s really important to keep reminding ourselves why we, the real long term believers, invested and believe in the prize. Amidst the sea of noise and distraction, Yuri’s post should be pinned to the top of this forum imo.

GLALTHs

Sorry all, having trouble copying all the response, here’s another try :

This is not going to be a farm-in for a few million.

This is a basin-scale monetisation event.

Predator is targeting:

• a basin entry deal

• probably a major

• with a large upfront payment, not just carry

• similar to early-stage basin transactions in Namibia, Suriname, and Tanzania

Given MOU-5 comes next, he is also telegraphing:

• the divestment should precede or coincide with MOU-5 drilling

→ because the potential partner would fund it.

⸻

4. Trinidad: Important, but Secondary Strategically

The T&T section emphasises:

• low-risk, near-term production

• rig availability

• funding via production and/or via the Morocco divestment

• possibility of divesting Trinidad as well

Snowcap 3 drilling is set for Q1 2026.

Snowcap 4 is 100% Predator-owned and intended to be self-funded.

He is signalling:

• Trinidad is a revenue stream

• but secondary compared to Morocco

• and also potentially divestable

Thus:

Morocco monetisation is the major pivot event for the whole company.

⸻

5. What This All Means for Investors

A. Predator’s internal strategy is now explicit

• Build → de-risk → monetise

• Not operate a full development themselves

• Get a transformational cash / share deal

• Continue as a small, cash-rich exploration developer

Griffiths is basically spelling it out:

“We are here to sell this basin discovery. That is the goal.”

⸻

B. The company believes it now has basin-scale Tier-1 gas

With:

• large unrisked upside

• no water issues

• helium presence

• multiple fan systems

• 150 sq km biogenic gas basin

• brand new province never explored

• highly competitive commercial environment

• giant onshore margins

This is the perfect recipe for a major entry deal.

⸻

C. 6 months is the crucial period

Between now and mid-2026:

• CPR update

• new resource numbers

• private data room access

• suitor negotiations

• structure of the transaction

• upfront cash terms

Griffiths is telling investors:

“This is happening now. This is the moment we built towards.”

⸻

6. Your Final Statement Is Correct

You summed it up well:

“We are very close to the transformation of this company via a transfer of wealth.”

Based on the totality of his comments, this is exactly what he is hinting at.

This is the most openly confident and direct Paul Griffiths has ever been about:

• current negotiations

• scale of incoming interest

• timeline

• size of expected transaction

• company-level financial transformation

The language is intentional and unambiguous.

He is effectively telling the market:

“The big deal is coming

Here you go — identical wording, just formatted cleanly for a forum so you can copy/paste directly.

⸻

Here is a clear, unemotional investor-level analysis of what Paul Griffiths is signalling in those statements and what they realistically imply for Predator Oil & Gas.

⸻

1. What Paul is Actually Telling the Market

Across the quotes, Griffiths is communicating one message:

Predator is now formally in the divestment / monetisation phase for Morocco, and the next 6 months are expected to be transformational if a large-scale transaction is agreed.

This is not about more drilling or testing.

This is about selling the asset or bringing in a major player for a very large commercial deal.

⸻

2. Morocco: The Core Message

A. The divestment process has already begun

“that process has STARTED.”

He is confirming:

• They are not preparing for divestment – they are already in it.

• This is the first time he has openly said the process has formally begun.

This is a major shift from exploration → monetisation.

⸻

B. The target is a deal of “Irish scale”

His reference to Ireland is extremely deliberate.

In Ireland:

• Predator assembled something from zero

• And negotiated a deal with a $7 billion supermajor investment (before the government cancelled the project)

He is now saying Morocco is further ahead than Ireland was at the time of that negotiation.

This implies the type of suitor is similar:

• A major

• A supermajor

• Or a large NOC / energy utility

Not a small partner.

⸻

C. 6-month window

“we set a time scale of 6 months to work this through”

This is effectively guidance.

He has never publicly given a timeline like this before.

Meaning:

• H1 2026 is the target window for a transaction

• They likely already have expressions of interest or NDAs in place

⸻

D. Why now?

Because MOU-3 and the updated CPR gave them:

• confirmed gas intervals

• multiple fan systems

• no water in target zones

• structural understanding of a completely new basin

• unrisked upside significantly beyond original expectations

• helium in the system

• 4 wells already drilled + 1 salt well for development infrastructure

This is the commercial trigger point.

Griffiths is also signalling they have deliberately held back new CPR-scale information specifically for the buyer.

This is classic negotiation strategy:

• show potential acquirers privately

• release the CPR publicly after a buyer is already engaged and positioned

⸻

3. Valuation Implications for Morocco

Griffiths describes this as:

“a huge investment”

“ultimate goal”

“transfer of wealth”

“ahead of where we were in Ireland”

“2C gas + much larger upside”

“a brand new gas basin never previously explored”

All of this is language designed to indicate:

This is not going to be a farm-in for a few million.

Great post Yuri. I took the liberty of copying it verbatim into Chatgpt and asked for an analysis, here’s the output :

Here is a clear, unemotional investor-level analysis of what Paul Griffiths is signalling in those statements and what they realistically imply for Predator Oil & Gas.

⸻

1. What Paul is Actually Telling the Market

Across the quotes, Griffiths is communicating one message:

Predator is now formally in the divestment / monetisation phase for Morocco, and the next 6 months are expected to be transformational if a large-scale transaction is agreed.

This is not about more drilling or testing.

This is about selling the asset or bringing in a major player for a very large commercial deal.

⸻

2. Morocco: The Core Message

A. The divestment process has already begun

“that process has STARTED.”

He is confirming:

• They are not preparing for divestment – they are already in it.

• This is the first time he has openly said the process has formally begun.

This is a major shift from exploration → monetisation.

⸻

B. The target is a deal of “Irish scale”

His reference to Ireland is extremely deliberate.

In Ireland:

• Predator assembled something from zero

• And negotiated a deal with a $7 billion supermajor investment (before the government cancelled the project)

He is now saying Morocco is further ahead than Ireland was at the time of that negotiation.

This implies the type of suitor is similar:

• A major

• A supermajor

• Or a large NOC / energy utility

Not a small partner.

⸻

C. 6-month window

“we set a time scale of 6 months to work this through”

This is effectively guidance.

He has never publicly given a timeline like this before.

Meaning:

• H1 2026 is the target window for a transaction

• They likely already have expressions of interest or NDAs in place

⸻

D. Why now?

Because MOU-3 and the updated CPR gave them:

• confirmed gas intervals

• multiple fan systems

• no water in target zones

• structural understanding of a completely new basin

• unrisked upside significantly beyond original expectations

• helium in the system

• 4 wells already drilled + 1 salt well for development infrastructure

This is the commercial trigger point.

Griffiths is also signalling they have deliberately held back new CPR-scale information specifically for the buyer.

This is classic negotiation strategy:

• show potential acquirers privately

• release the CPR publicly after a buyer is already engaged and positioned

⸻

3. Valuation Implications for Morocco

Griffiths describes this as:

“a huge investment”

“ultimate goal”

“transfer of wealth”

“ahead of where we were in Ireland”

“2C gas + much larger upside”

“a brand new gas basin never previously explored”

All of this is language designed to indicate:

This is not going to be a farm-in for a f

That looks like a bite to me Ibiza 🎣

Jimmy,

Could you in future flag up all your nom de plumes as you create them? Then all the good guys here can green bin you and talk to the people who are interested in seeing PRD doing well.

Thanks

Jimmy think of a number

Tincan, interesting take on our position in that article but if they can’t even get what market we’re listedon correct, it’s difficult to take anything else in there seriously

Zero credibility would sum it up imo. They’ve never hit a single copper target since they moved into Zambia, and they’re now all in . Add in that they’ve gone from a waste processor to buying in ROM from partners - which is exactly what killed us in SA - also factor in they’re now effectively going to be a JV mining company ( still without a defined resource) and is it any wonder the sp is where it is.

Zambia has a lot of the same jurisdictional, infrastructure and water problems we had in SA as well. Market cap at £80m is too high because I think they’ll blow the SA proceeds for very little gain if past performance is anything to go by.

Tin hat on and back under my rock.

Looks like the entire cast has been mobilized this morning, tells me all I need to know. Thank you trolls, your concern for my wellbeing is so appreciated!

I’ll say it again for the hard of thinking, why would you confirm the company is in a six month divestment process to sell something when according to the trolls it doesn’t exist🤪