Member Info for wasarunner

Headder we see you :) you weren't here, now the company has problems, wonder what your agenda is (well I don't wonder it at all tbh). Are you a holder? Or are you considering investing? Or are you here to warn us how bad our investment is (which is why djryan is here ableit he doesn't know it).....

Just wondering.

· As stated on 2 October 2023, Reta Engenharia has been retained to complete a detailed capital cost and schedule analysis which is expected to be completed by mid Q4-2023

.....

· Araguaia Nickel Project Line 2 Feasibility Study ("FS"), which aims to double nickel production from 14,500 tonnes per annum to 29,000 tonnes per annum, to be published in mid Q4-2023

.....

Reta Engenharia is expected to complete its capital cost and schedule analysis report, following which an independent technical advisor, nominated by Senior Lenders will review the updated costs with targeted completion by mid Q4-2023.

So: mid Q4 2023 is the target for the significant items to drop by which it has to be November. I can't help feeling the A2 DFS is somehow significant but don't know how, it just seems odd otherwise, given the situation with A1, to be quite clearly tying the timeline on publishing the DFS to the updated assessment of A1 (I get that the costs of overrun on A1 need to feed through to A2 but I don't understand the requirements to get the A2 DFS published asap UNLESS it is perceived to be helping with the financing round - perhaps to present to new investors what the bigger picture of A1+A2 will look like in production).

I don't understand some of the posts this morning. How can you expect equity finance then go on to decrease the profit forecast? If you fund with equity there is no additional debt to finance so sure, the profit gets distributed across more shares but I don't see how it impacts on the cost to breakeven. And as far as I can tell the company aren't saying OPEX will increase, so far the problem has been CAPEX increase? But as ever, WTFDIK DYOR yadda yadda. GLA

They will have to find proper money I just don't agree the lower estimates. Remember that they had allowed 12 months for commissioning through to get to nameplate production. Along this trajectory you don't know when they were planning/hoping to get to cashflow breakeven (i.e. do they only produce 0.5kt a month in months 9 or already 1kt+ a month) but there had to be some slack in there to allow for ramp up.

Now the schedule has moved to the right by 6 months the impact on not getting to nameplate is already, simply due to the delay, without any additional cost to the build +/- $130m. So it seems pointless to me counting out the pennies on how much is left of existing money when you can see such a big financial impact in the schedule. Sure there might be some mitigation, banks might be prepared to move first payment dates etc as part of the finance deal but do not expect the money needed to complete and get to production to be < $100m, and probably not < $200m IMO.

That said I do expect to get a deal, as I said, the mine is all but built and no way it will be allowed to go down. From this latest RNS it seems obvious they will have to publish the sum required first, following the complete of the technical analysis by the engineering company, after which this will go to review with the lenders anyway. So at least 2 more RNS' (the first will be material development and will have to be RNS'd) and perhaps somewhere along the line the A2 DFS will get published. I have a feeling it will be 3 RNS in November. GLA

Read the RNS. Inconceivable they don't agree a finance package. The mine is all but built and pretty close to commissioning. Ask yourself if Orion, La Mancha and Glencore let it go to rack and ruin at this stage. As ever the terms (to us PIs) are what's important but it will 100% get financed. GLA

>>Dj, you have no idea

nm

There will be dilution yes, it will be large yes. Will there be 8x as many shares in issue as before the dilution? Because that's what the current sp divided by the pre-RNS sp is suggesting? I think not, and that's why I think it is a buy at the current price. I don't believe it is in any of the majors interests to dilute at that level which is why the funding negotiations are probably protracted and probably quite creative around how to work around this. It just doesn't work out - La Mancha do not want to decimate their 140p investment at this level, even if they do get additional cheap shares, especially if they will be on offer to the other parties.

I think 2x, 3x, maybe worst case 4x shares in issue but not 8x and no deal is not really an option for them, I think. GLA

>>What I’m trying to understand is why wouldn’t dilution be as worrying to the cornerstones as it would to the PI’s? Wouldn’t they want to finance in other ways toprotect their shares since they have such a large percentage anyway?

Exactly what icecream said - they wouldn't agree. The cornerstones (and banks) consent is crucial to the deal. That's why the discussions at this stage are with them, and not with others.

I can't see PIs getting in on any raise. For the same reasons as before they will need it concluded quickly IMO.

Hopefully an update soon - I'm expecting to hear something progressive in October then hopefully finance deal lands in November.

My guess is 50p post deal (not immediately but after a few of months those that want to leave leave those that want in in) and £1+ at first/nameplate production. So for new entrants that's a 2.5x-5x or bust but with decent odds on a deal. I now have 700k or so shares but wish I had bought them all at this price, obviously, and eagerly await the £1 mark at which point decisions decisions.....

In case there's any doubt JM also wants a deal or its 10 years work down the pan and with 5 banks 3 ecas and 3 cornerstones to satisfy it ain't going to be easy but I think he can do it....

pickedpeck - like you i think a deal will be done. the deal now is likely to contain other elements than just equity + (debt) because the sp is so low and as you say too many and different vested interests to a. let if fail and b. take total control.

the ****up imo has been not anticipating the market reaction in what is, lets face it, excluding 2008 and april 2020 in recent times probably the worst market to release bad news into and - suspending the share on the initial announcement until at least a framework agreement could be established with the cornerstones and banks. the problem now being more creative methods are required to work around the very low equity price to get this financed when it could have been fone more simply and on better terms.

i don't think the wording of the rns was the problem, not suspending was the problem. but i still think there will be a deal and like you see upside from this price - but not a given. it is oversold and as such an opportunity as long as you have risk tolerance. i bought today. gla

Yes I'm wondering where the 'it is guaranteed 100% to be 19.75 by end of today with massive new finance package announced by at latest 10.23 tomorrow morning I have info can't disclose where from but guaranteed 2 bagger' brigade have gone. Let me guess - the next distressed/volatile AIM stock :) Now that it has settled at the nominal value of the share pending actual news which only the company knows or can determine.

Hazbeen,

It wasn't just Jo Public that was speculating. La Mancha and Orion put in at 140p (7p) and private equity invests for 'multiples' of returns. So the initial gamble was worthwhile (in fact obviously many of us got in a lot earlier than La Mancha and Orion and were well in the money).

The question is what to do now. If you could get out on Monday morning, which many LTH did (at least some I know of) you've made a decision but now I'm left with a decision of 20p (1p in old money) or upside from a finance deal or bust. I think the finance deal will be done and it will be worth more than 20p in time, and bust I can live with.

Funny thing is over the last 18 months or so I've been kicking myself for diversifying because Horizonte was the only share in my portfolio that was remotely holding its value. Now obviously I'm thanking my lucky stars I diversified. For me that's the moral of the story, and not the punt - just don't invest in one share it's too risky, no matter how good it looks on paper.

FWIW I think we'll be ok(ish) here, I expect to get my money back. If I don't (and even if it goes to 0), I can live with it and I guess that's the message you are conveying and yes, that's really important. GLA

This is the reason I don't agree with lowball estimates for funding shortfall ($50m/$70m whatever). Not producing nickel for an extra 6 months from the assumed timeframe (with the assumed timeframe being 1 year from first metal to full nameplate) already costs $130m in lost revenue from being at nameplate for 6 months less than envisaged. And there is debt to repay.

The funding shortfall is a higher number and it is better we know it soon - the market doesn't like the uncertainty.

Need to check on progress but I think the hydro dam is commissioning this year. It was/looked well advanced on the latest videos I watched and there is a lot of public information about it. I think the rail is just sidings which shouldn't be hard to add and is only needed at production not while you build the mine. Roads you need of course. Yes it is taking a long time and we may still need to weather a global recession before the commodity bull market arrives....

You gotta call pumping out for what it is. 90p next week is possible, but unlikely. 0p is possible, but unlikely. A number of us as pickedpeck says have been invested a long time (2018 for me) with much higher averages and we have 2 choices pre finance deal - hold, or sell. I (personally) think the short term outcome will be north of here, not bust, and the long term outcome obviously depends on the level of dilution (if any - and I don't see no dilution as an option).

Fearmongers on the flipside feed on fear, if you can't accept 0 as an outcome as a long term holder of course you should sell, personally I see a much higher probability of a higher sp than today, than bust, so I hold. If anyone is actually short (as opposed to looking for a lower entry which is typically what the doom mongers are doing - they don't have the balls to actually short) then they can keep plugging it that way and the market will decide. Actual shorts IMO will be toast if the company announces something that means survival of equity which can land any day now - one thing I would not do in this situation personally, is short.

Anyway to all the posters who haven't been here for the last 5 years but now lend us their expertise on what next - welcome - and welcome also to some old hands like djryan/publican777 who are always happy to come back to a board where they lost money to tell everyone else I told you so.

It's a sorry situation and not what LTH wanted, but IMHO it lives on. GLA

Obviously a lot taking a position here for what was inevitably an opportunity for a nice bounce yes. Wonder how many will hold for the finance deal. The problem with the finance deal is you don't know when it lands, it could be tomorrow or it could be November 14 or literally any other date.

A lot of traders (despite the pumping :) ) will get nervous because actually many consider 0 still a possible outcome despite the uber bullishness to drive sentiment. I know I would if I was sitting on a 20% or 50% gain and it could be wiped out.

Which is kind of a shame because from 20p this is a 5-10 bag opportunity over a few year timeframe (assuming finance deal is at least 'ok' for equity). But traders will already have moved to the next 20% opportunity.

FWIW I think traders will be replaced by other types of buying (perhaps hedge funds specialising in distressed situations) once the company hints that a deal is in the offing. That's when I expect to see a bit more substantial rerate.

I can live with equity in the 25-50p range to save this company and hopefully we get towards the top end of that range, I do think it is possible. GLA

>>Was, how do u know what they will or won’t except.

From Glencore's 2022 accounts:

"For 2023, basis 2022 cash flows, we are

recommending to shareholders a $0.40 per

share (c.$5.1 billion) base distribution, made

up of $1 billion from Marketing cash flows

and 25% ($4.1 billion) of Industrial

attributable cash flows. "

Now think what you're saying. Horizonte's current mcap is somewhere around £55m and Glencore own 17.7% of it. So what you're saying is when another entity (presume miner, but it could be anybody) offers them £10m, for a resource containing 4m tonnes of nickel, a commodity they are one of the largest producers / traders in the world of, they'll prefer the £10m to the 4m tonnes of nickel. They'll be selling if for £2.50 a tonne at that point. And this is a company which has paid out a $5.1bn dividend to its shareholders. Yeah - that's going to happen.

I'm not saying Glencore won't bid for the lot but unless they join with the other principals (and La Mancha are the obvious choice here because of their large shareholding) the other two will want at least what they paid for their shares. That's our insurance. I re-iterate - if Glencore were the only shareholder we'd be totally screwed, and if another miner wants to buy it now, they'll have to make Glencore an offer which is more attractive than owning 4m tonnes of nickel themselves. Neither of which (IMHO) is going to happen....

>>Im expecting an offer down here, soon, why wouldn't someone with deep pockets go for it at this cheap mkt cap.

Because La Mancha, Orion, and Glencore (unless it is one of them making the offer) won't accept the bid. Doh ;)

Also final word on the JM bashing et al. An expensive mistake but a mistake and not by intent. Loving the people on this bb and elsewhere who have maybe put up a shed, if that, criticising a junior company for not delivering to plan a $700m project exactly to budget in the outback of brazil. This is a geologist who has spent 10 years getting the company to this point and has 4000 contractors/staff working on site. He hasn't built 10 of these in the last 10 years, this is his first one. Sure he hires in the technical expertise but problems were bound to arise. The challenge right now is the size of the problem - it isn't a $10m problem or a $50m problem its an 'as yet to be defined but probably $200m problem'. I guess as investors what we should take away from this is buying pre revenue juniors with major upside and high capex is very risky because when it goes wrong - wrong is a big number.

SJ don't get me wrong, if Glencore were the only major shareholder we'd be toast. If glen were 29% and pi's were 71% and glen said 'we're prepared to lose our investment to the banks unless you accept 25p for your shares and we will buy the company or it goes down' the only protection would be a counterbid from a.n.other major. Look at what they would be getting - right now for an investment of $200m they would get the 3/4 finished mine and all that resource to expand to 60ktpa+.

But Orion and La Mancha put in $200-250m at much higher numbers and will prevent that from happening. Glen can get as hostile as threy want right now because Orion and La Mancha won't exit below par. A syndicate of 2 or 3 iof the 3 is slightly more risk of happening and can't be ruled out but I don't know where the banks and eca's would sit with that. It looks unlikely to me that would happen - but for me, a risk.

Well the shorts are playing with fire also. 2 stages combined $2bn+npv current mcap £50m or whatever. If I wasn't invested right now and looking at what could happen, I would definitely go long, not short. When deal lands, mcap goes north for sure. Gla