Member Info for wasarunner

Also for the 'they want it for themselves they want it private out of administration', why, when they had the opportunity to tale the below deal private, did Glen and La Mancha want $300m raised on open market? Would have been just as easy to take it private no?:

https://www.africabusinessplus.com/en/817045/la-mancha-fund-founder-naguib-sawiris-interested-in-appians-nickel-assets-despite-acg-takeover-failure/

"but it depended on raising $300 million in equity on the markets."

If Glencore want to own 100% of horizonte, they do have their chance now, but this will have to go down with La Mancha's approval through normal route of bid and thry won't get it for cents. Much more likely imo is they find a way to satisfy both with Glen getting what they want on the product side and la mancha prootecting their equity investment. All imho and gla.

Hi strow not sure the connection (I was invested in pere for a while which owned part of minto though - maybe you are saying one of our ex non execs is domiciled up that way) but I definitely agree that the two appointments (la mancha and ex glen) are signs they want to protect their existing investments not squander/abandon it. Until we have more info the doom mongers of which there are many will simply prey on fear. The funny thing is unless they are short they are doing it for amusement value only which I find bizarre. No money to be made from amusing yourself, usually. As I said I think la mancha will want to find a solution as will orion as will glen.

As a parting thought, lets take a peek at la mancha's holdings in the fund:

https://lamancharesourcecapital.com/portfolio/

Hey presto! They only have listed holdings, having exited the private holdings some time ago. Why is that relevant? Anybody paused to consider that their fund can't hold private companies in its assets? Just saying... now that would cause the 'going private/into liquidation/doing a deal with glencore/ this time next week pi's holdings are going to 0' brigade some confusion perhaps? Gla

But ferronickel won't trade at $12k/t over lom, if at all. All the financiers (which include one of the largest western miners/traders of nickel) know this otherwise they wouldn't have put up the $700m to date, John987 member since 11nov with 6 posts, wouldn't ypu say. As for the green boxes must be a slow night in the publican, can't see what it's referring to. Must invent a new persona - it'll be hard to spot though. Gla

Oh the mcap.will be in the hundreds of millions when finance is agreed because the npv is in the hundreds of millions if not billions. The question is not what will the mcap be but by how many shares do you divide it to find the shareprice. Billion shares is ok imo and maybe more is ok too.

I have no concerns (lonh term) on nickel.price. on price it may be a turn of good fortune that we are delayed production until it is higher (2025?) The energy transition is real and it is going to happen only question is how slowly/quickly. Nickel is a key part of it. We are always going to be way cheaper and cleaner on input cost (hydro v indonesian coal powered nickel) than much of the competition.

People are hung up on the current market cap but it is arbitrary because it is priced to fail. As soon as it is obvious it wont be allowed to go under the market cap will change. I think the biggedt thing people are getting wrong is thqt it in any way reflects the value of the company. If it is going to get wiped out the value will be 0p anyway but if it doesn't it will be a lot higher.

That said 3:1 would be ok. I make a 4-5p divi possible in that scenario so if you were buying now you would be buying 50% yield. Cheap, and at some point 'the market' will get it. I'm starting to think we will get better than 3:1 because I think other parties will be invited to equity and the incumbents won't want their existing shareholdings diluted too much.

Oh btw tuan, I made all my money (real money, £) buying when other selling. Assuming the market is rational is a big mistake investors make. Thr matket is irrational, this is generally well understood and it is pitrrally how you make money. I think the market is mispricing horizonte at 9p. Gla

When they had to raise $80m it wasn't available to all holders and so it won't to raise $250m or whatever the number is. They will have to get creative on the deal (hint, ex ceo of la mancha is now ceo here - not the guy you bring in to mothball a project but the guy to find a creative solution to a hard problem).

3 institutions own 15% of the co and the big 3 hold 51%. Thr banks don't want a haircut. The mine is viable at most resonable nickel prices and the long term nickel price will be up, not down. Two of the investors but especially Orion score a bit with dilution on their existing CLN. Other than that they mainly lose.

Here's what I think will happen:

- first rns makes it clear we go to q1. No administration in december.

- pieces of the funding jigsaw are released that make it clear funding WILL happen. This will move the sp north fast, back to where the big players want it to get finance done and preserve some of their previous investment. Q1 sometime. Glencore can go first with a deal on the ptoduct side.

- to keep the share liquid other investors (institutions) will be invited into finance at a price Mancha and Orion can live with.

Other outcomes are possible (eg Glencore bid for thr lot, possibly administration) but the above is what I think will happen.

You don't bring the guy with $68bn in closed deals onboard to not close a $300m finance deal. And tuan thanks but I don't need to borrow money, I'm a proper grownup with my oen bank account and everything, have my own cash, and thanks I did. 800,000 sh now, how many you buying (or selling)?. It's going to be £1 by next christmas if billyv has anything to do with it ;) and we'll all be eating lobsterman for breaakfast and drinking caviar. gla - this time last year Rodders we were millionaires (literally).

If we're shafted so are azvalor, condire, helikon (15% between them) who haven't sold shares. If la manch and orion dilute they dilute their 140p shares. There will be no high 5s after the deal for anyone but it will be done on terms that don't completely shaft pi's.

In the meantime I do like lobster but probably won't be able to afford it if the deal isn't a good one.

Crypto - we're all really impressed but if you had followed the stock a long time (which you haven't) you would know that even djryan doesn't get out of bed for a 100k on this one. But nonetheless impressive, well done you and I hope your bull run continues.

Meanwhile what people who actually hold the share (which doesn't include in its number tuan8 or hheader and so forth) are wondering is, whst happens next.

Shorting the stock for £1k/1p at 10p yiels £10k if it goes to £0. It loses £140k if it goes to £1.50. Long on the stock a £1k/1p wins £140k if it goes to £150p and loses £10k if it goes to 0p. Now I'm not a gambler (else I would be invested here) - but if I were, I wpuld have to think about that one carefully. Gla.

>>the timeline will be a lot quicker than Q1 now mancha are in charge. they already know what they are going to do...just a question of getting the other 2 on board

100% agree. It will be quicker. They've had already 2 months to figure stuff out (since first RNS and lets face it they would have known about the problem earlier) and the engineering study will have been done and they will be reviewing it. Now they essentially hold the reigns this will proceed at the pace they dictate. If the number required is a very big number then of course, it could be a complicated deal which takes time to nail down. You still have to make sure the mine economics work with whatever debt/equity package is placed and all shareholders at the negotiating table (exclude PIs from this) will want to ensure that's the case.

tuan yes it could go to 0p, we get it. Are you buying or selling ;) If you're sure you'd want to be short of course. But I wouldn't like to be short on this at 10p. GLA

Administration is not impossible. We need to get used to that idea until we have clarity that it isn't going to happen.

Lets assume the big 3 are set on a course, Orion, La Mancha, Glencore. Anyone spotted the odd one out yet? Helikon haven't been sellling or the shareprice would already be 1p. They own 10% of the company albeit some are via more complex instruments. Do Helikon think it's going into administration? Might they have sold a few if it was or have they been guaranteed a part in newco?

I don't think it's going into administration. But I could be 100% wrong and I'll take full responsibility for my own investment if it does.

>.Market cant see how do they secure the fund at moment on RNS .

True to an extent yet secure the funds they will. Look at the guy at the helm:

Karim Nasr - Mr Nasr was Managing Partner and Co-Chief Investment Officer of La Mancha Resource Capital LLP (“La Mancha”), which advises La Mancha Resource Fund SCSp ...... During this tenure, he raised US$68bn in debt and equity and closed US$67bn in M&A transactions

So you don't put this guy in charge, presuming he has better ways of making La Mancha money, unless:

1. You are going to finance the mine

2. You see longevity in the deal - i.e. La Mancha aren't just here to rescue their $100m+ already committed because this guy could be doing business elsewhere. They are here to build Horizonte out into whatever they first decided they wanted, with Araguaia, with Vermelho.

Actually the market should be pretty confident that finance WILL be done what the market doesn't know is whether that is in the current corporate structure or a different one, and whether existing shares are worth 0p, 10p, 50p, or a different number. With this I do agree it is very difficult to make a forecast at the moment. But one thing I am pretty sure about is the mine will get financed and built - otherwise La Mancha would have walked away instead of taking on the reigns.

Doesn't mean administration isn't out of the question but I think it unlikely. They already have Orion and Glencore onboard enough to agree to the board changes so they can structure the company any which way they want now I can't see the advantage of taking it to administration at all. GLA

I would say todays announcement all but guarantees funding - the concern for PIs (especially entrants at £1+ and not 8p+) is what form that will take. I haven't really a clue, but the corporate structure hasn't changed at all through the management changes - Orion still own what they own, La Mancha what they own, Glencore what they own and the banks are still there.

So probability of finance deal just went up for me, there is 0% chance La Mancha would put their man at the top to not get finance - if they thought finance wasn't happening they would have walked away. Could go private - yes - was always a risk after the initial debarcle.

Rover I'm very much hoping for the kind of thing you are suggesting - boatloads of equity at 20p with perhaps some other forms of finance thrown in. It preserves some value for existing holders. As you say worse outcomes are possible.

I definitely wouldn't want to be short at 10p though, there's a lot more upside than downside if and when a deal is done.

Oh and personally I think this announcement accelerates a deal. La Mancha must be convinced finance is worthwhile to make this move. Why would they wait 4 more months to do that deal. Suspect a deal early Q1 and a restart asp. GLA

Jona - I think your assessment is fair. For existing holders invested at £1+ we're wondering if we ever see our money back but for new entrants, as long as finance happens, current levels are likely to be a bargain. There is a finite (I hope small) chance that finance doesn't happen. But a smaller probability than the doom mongers here suggest because as you say too much money has already been spent. What shape the finance deal takes is going to be critical of course (as is the prevailing/forecast nickel price) which will likely influence the deal.

Strow - no issue with negative positions and no issues with traders and traders (both long and short) talk their positions - I have no issue with that. What I like to call out are, lets call them people, who post overtly negative comment without stating a position. So - if cont was short, said so, I'd have a lot of respect for getting that call right even if the repetition is a bit tedious and I do have him on filter. Recently there were two posters on this board who have no stated position, no stated intent to enter a position, appear out of the blue when the stock is distressed, and suggests others should bail while they can. Like don't get me wrong, I do like total strangers being concerned for my financial welfare especially as I do believe it to be genuine concern, but.......you got to call the boiler room what it is IMO. GLA

Didn't answer the question. Being here since 2014 is great. How may horizonte shares did you buy, or sell? So you think its garbage and going to administration I get it. So you're here so I can save what money I still got by selling my shares? I appreciate your concern. Or why.....?

Tuan I'll make this really easy. Hoe many share you own? Hint - its an integer number (or 0). I own 600,000. You?

>>What will happen after 15/12 when they said run out of fund ? As they are working hard to find the fund to build the rest ofine. As time of this year not finishea as they planned. If they cant find the requested fund what will happen to the share?

So I repeat the question whoch you clearly don't understand? Why do you care? Are you long, short, neother, or considering either. As you don't answer any question I will assume neither, you are a paid bot, and that's fine, as long as everyone here can see what it is.

Muck yes I mix threads apologies for that. I use the site on the non threaded view. A fellow investor suggested the conversion before the october rns was 'in the know' but it makes sense. If I had worked my socks off to deliver a mine and it looked like brown stuff was going to hit the fan I would do the same.

I've no problem with english and my post was tongue in cheek (english isn't my first language either). It's the motive I question. Literally no hint they they would buy, or sell it, and reads very much like not an investor but a paid plant. Repeat some negative line from the RNS then annotate with 'will result in suspension soon' etc. Yes could be short but unlikely.

Here's a thing. Tsinghan benefit if Horizonte doesn't go into production. That's 3.5m tonnes less non Indo-Chinese production on the market.