Member Info for wasarunner

Muck - I wondered that and assumed somebody knew bad news was coming (not BOD level but maybe one of the senior guys on the ground in Brazil), exercised and sold. Perhaps a bit naughty perhaps not depends what level they were and what they knew. Unlikely to be coincidence - you don't see many people selling 6 months before first metal was due.

What I'm acually windering is who pays you to post. Because your agenda is different to people who want to buy or sell, that's obviousl if it's meant to be subtle, trust me, it isn't.

Yes, all of that. So you buying or selling (my guess - neither)

Tuan6 how come you still here? buy buy or sell sell or fear spread good? do your chinese plants always come in on time and on budget for friend no longer here asking for....just wondering how you came on here 35% more times than before the shareprice crashed wondering just am.

>>How far apart these sites are, i don't know. Maybe the more clued up can shed some light on this.

We're in the middle of it, I think:

http://armadalecapitalplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Beaufort-note-on-Armadale-Capital-27.10.16-1.pdf

Green is them, red is us, Page 2.

The inevitable p&d its so tedious. But I guess while the fate of the company hangs in the balance and we have nearly 0 information on what happens next it passes the time.

The subject of my post is tongue in cheek of course. It is not a buy recommendation and should not result in the shareprice rising 2 pence in the next 29 hours.

The problem (as I see it) can be boiled down to:

1. the company has great assets but it's existence, or the existence of current shareholdings is assumed to be heavily uncertain.

2.at least some trust in the BOD has gone (from many existing holders at least).

So to answer the question 'why did Fidelity sell up' it could be because of 1. or it could be because of 2. or it could be because of 1. and 2.

So the question becomes - lets assume 1. resolves, to some extent, and lets assume that 1. is resolved with the current management team in place. What then? Will the company be able to do more deals on A2, will the current mgt team be left in place to complete A1 build? Or have the cornerstones lost patience and will they be looking to make changes?

My feeling is the current mgt team will get us through to a deal and a deal of some sort will materialise then after that I don't know what happens. But those factors explain the shareprice and I can't see a significant rate upwards until the picture becomes clearer on 1. above.

Cotnerstones have to be inside if they are negotiating - ie can't buy right now?

I took a degree of comfort that the three cornerstones wpuld all have to agree a bad deal and thry wouldn't as the thing that saves us I still feel that. Apart from the fact that they have 3 wallets thry also don't want the other to do better so they will all want a slice (if the deal is done). Then the only really bad outcome is sewing it up between them but hopefully doesn't come to that, not if thry want to maintain liquidity and stock market listing etc.

My position is c. 600k+ I bought at £1+ average with 100k odd at 70-75p area. Breakeven may seem far off and might have to be happy with lower than that but baby steps we need the company to get through to q1 and do a deal - I think/hope they will. Personallly think anyone buying this range up yo 20p+ is going to do very well (unless they lost it all first of course!)

If you get a bid for $100m (and thr buyer is settling the $300m debt) then they are only paying for what has been spent because $400m+ has been spent. A lot of what has been spent is Orions and La Manchas money. They won't agree to it (unless one or more of them is the bidder) and will want more.

Thr consortium/dilution to oblivion is probably the worst outcome, assuming a sale can be negotiated ie the sale option is preferable.

I have thought through and even all equity at the nominal price 20p - 1bn shares issued plus effect of diluting convertibles would end us with c. 1.5bn shares. I used to think A1 would get £2.50/£3/sh at production so this scenario gets me to 5x shares so 50p/60p at production. I'm hoping that's worst case....

Mumbles, I like your reasining and I sincerely hope you're right. One worry I have is WE DON'T KNOW THE COST OF THE OVERRUN. So I'm speculating the reason terms couldn't already be agreed is, it's a big number, or the parties need to do the due diligence to check it (I get the latter point, especially if it is a big number).

But I do think the fact that the market doesn't know what the number is is making the market very nervous = 10p shareprice. If it's $200 or $250m and all parties sign up to that number, we can maybe hypothesise a solution. What if it is (playing devils advocate here) $500m? What's the route then?

I think part of the problem is the overrun figure Horizonte have determined (or not yet) hasn't been published. When/if it is, people can start to make educated guesses as to how the company can pull this off with the cornerstones.

By the way I want it to succeed by god I do. I didn't buy it and hold it since 2018 to see it all go down the pan right now.

Tuan you've just arrived and all your posts are negative. Are you short? Looking to buy? Or just here to 'advise'? Just wondering (who you work for - but I could be wrong). Most retail investors are out with big losses already, maybe smart money is buying their shares right now or not. There are of course many entities which wouldn't want a company like Horizonte to succeed - as it could produce nickel at lower price than say Indonesia.....

The main/only protection I see for PIs which another poster has commented on today but I also assumed very early in this process was Orion and La Mancha because they will hopefully not just agree to anything and will keep it orderly. They put in $200-250m, lets assume $65m of that the convertible bonds get paid out in full leaves $135-185m (I forget the precise numbers and some was for Vermelho/royalty etc). Right now they own 33% of the company between them.

Using a mid figure of $150m as a guide for 33% of the company, at 30% of their investment a buyer would be paying $135m in total for the equity - £110m gbp (assume 1.2x fx) and around 42p a share.

So the question is, will a third party or Glencore take on all the debt, the completion to build cost, pay up the convertible bond, and stump up $135m for the total equity (of course, for Gelencore the total equity payment is less as they already own 17%).

We will see. I'd be happier the higher the price and I'd be pretty down about 0p.

Sadly I disagree with those thinking it goes forward in current form - I do think the opportunity to do that was to get the finance deal done which clearly hasn't happened (probably because the sum required is large). Downing tools and re-start will be a huge cost and will have to be borne by however this goes forward from there.

I think the best chance now is an orderly sale, to somebody (Glencore? other bidders?) at numbers Orion and La Mancha are happy with. Hopefully not administration. Right now I'd be over the moon with 50p and I'd take anything reasonably 25p+. Whether Orion/La Mancha would take that is a question but what are their options if they aren't capable or willing to stump up the whatever hundreds of millions of $ required.

For me this became a sale outcome when the contractors downed tools I think people hoping for a continuation of build/eventual dividends etc are likely to be wrong. But I'm happy to be wrong also as I have been on many previous occasions! Something like 35p might represent c. 30% of La Mancha and Orion's blended average and maybe they are prepared to suffer 70% loss (I'm not sure what the situation is in that scenario with the convertible bond maybe they get paid out ahead of the equity).

It's a sad outcome but I'm resigned to it. Especially when the alternative is 0p. None of the above is a recommendation to either buy, or sell, this is a very individual decision but I'll hold for outcome.

And in the second fundraise:

participating in the Fundraise via the Placing agreeing to conditionally purchase 24,340,744 Placing Shares (the "La Mancha Participation")

That cost them ~£22m (current value at 8p ~£2m).

Good money after bad it turns out? But they're pros.

From the main fund raise (I have annotated the current value):

· 533,845,825 new Ordinary Shares pursuant to the Orion Subscription, raising gross proceeds of approximately £37.4 million (approximately US$50 million) (current value £2.1m @ 8p)

· 759,128,764 new Ordinary Shares pursuant to the La Mancha Subscription, raising gross proceeds of approximately £53.2 million (approximately US$71 million) (current value £3M @8p)

So I might have been a sucker and lost money but they were bigger suckers and lost more money. And they're pros.

Which means people not invested here are here to gloat. Human nature you see, I see it all the time in all walks of life. Enjoy your champagne/f types gemtlemen! You indeed are the wise ones among us and may you take solace in that.

Rover I do think the solutions got more difficult after the first rns and no suspension. The sp went to 20p which is already a difficult point to finance from with equity. Whether the sp is 10p or 20p now imo only and I may be wrong is completely irrelevant to the financing. Its the cost of the overrun (we don't know yet) and what that does to npv/irr that are key and factor into that calculation prevailing Ni price and outlook etc. The financiers at first look had a look and drew a deep breath (at best, as they did bother to go to Brazil) and said we need to think about it some more. I guess that means it isn't a straight no as we'd be already up for sale at thos point.

I don't think the company goes down in December I think we will go through to q1 24. But what happens then is hard to predict. A sale is not unlikely in this scenario but right now what is hard to predict is in a sale exactly how much (if any) equity gets. Yes ****show sums it up well because the contrast to the corp video dated 28 sept couldn't be more startling.

ElectricLion your argument is very valid, and only the people who either 'knew' another $200-250-as yet undisclosed (m) would be required to complete the build would be in a position to make that assessment. What we know is Orion and La Mancha paid, duly, hundreds of millions of dollars for their shares at £1.40 so if the price was wrong they got that decision spectacularly wrong. And they're pros who apparently do a lot of DD, and site visits, and sit with the management team for hours on end before releasing the funds....

For me it keeps coming back to - Orion and La Mancha. Because:

Banks - I understand. Anyone who will pay up the loan they will talk to. So a min sale value $300m - that's not much, when more has been spent.

Glencore - I understand. It might cost them $$$ to finish this project but they can hire people to do that and for them the purchase/sale value isn't a lot. If they are the predator many think they are, their strategy would be obvious at this stage.

Orion and La Mancha I don't understand. Between them, including the convertible bonds (which I assume rank behind the senior debt), they held/hold OVER 50% of the equity here. They would be happy for that to go to 0? Or, they just don't have enough between them to finance the rest (and banks/Glencore aren't playing ball, for different reasons?)

I keep coming around to - if I've lost it all, Orion and La Mancha have lost $250m and I just don't see that outcome, so I still think some kind of financing deal where they do 'ok' (even if, I don't.....)

But if it were easy, we'd already have a financing deal in place......