Member Info for wasarunner

And occasionally you get a 10 bagger. I know. You improve your chances by buying ahead of a commodity bull run where the assets will be in demand and most get sold, not developed. But knowing what you say, you bought - so clearly it was a trade (on some timeframe, maybe not a daytrade but a swingtrade or a momentum trade) and it didn't work out. My sympathies but I haven't attempted to do that (yet), I always buy to buy and hold and that's working out so so at the moment.

Agree - will take time, resigned to the long haul. It can get sold of course, upside will be (much) more limited but if graphite is that in demand and our BOD can't advance it it might be the best middle ground to realise value. I'd be annoyed as anyone else to wait 5 years for same money back or +/- when you take the risk we took you'd really like a multiple. It's people expecting multiples in short order I don't get - if it was that easy everyone would be rich, and I've never made a multiple in short order (well once, but it was a fluke) so it's not what I invest for. I did think I was smart buying Kabunga's shares but maybe he had the last laugh (or maybe with his mine in Ukraine, he didn't).

The challenge is this - and just to be clear I'm not all singing the praises here nor am I an uberbull. I'm licking my wounds on the current lack of progress and current lack of SP as everyone else is.

When BKT move forward (which I believe they will do), De Vries has made a really big speech on the long, expensive qualification process with Posco. They've spent a lot of time, a lot of money (which we don't have) doing it, and doing it in bulk. THis is echoed by someone I follow on Twitter that this is critical in Graphite development. The question people should be asking is WHEN BKT move forward, are we in a position to do likewise? Is our product proven, or can it be proven and if so how quickly - is that a 3 month job, is it a 3 year job, and does it cost $0.5m or $30m. I don't know the answer, so atmo I'm in the position that I believe we can progress when BKT progresses because the infrastructure is in place and our graphite is 'the same'. Maybe that's me being naive as an investor maybe it's not but when I read on graphite it's all about quality. It's not a metal you smelt, it's not how it works.

If someone knows the answer to the above, I'm all ears. And if everyone else invested without knowing the answer you took the same chance I took.

6 months or you get de-listed is my understanding. But you probably already knew that....

They should be able to update on the operational aspects during the suspension - the last RNS made that clear. Not holding my breath right now for progress on either front. Poor, is what it is. But it is a private company, in effect, with the shareholder structure so as long as the big players are happy the BOD can keep treating the small fry like -> small fry.

Well we're all agreed we want to see the share higher. What changed in 2020 - who knows - but the project didn't proceed (much) from those points. The point is we've seen that before - on my other main/early holding stock Horizonte we lost 3 (three) years due to Covid and the need to rise finance and then when the finance landed it was almost certainly on worse terms than the BOD wanted (and for a lot more money). Did the BOD mislead investors there? If so, not intentionally. This might be different it might not. It might be that the BOD have realised the best strategy is waiting and the thing that stands out for me is -> no (or almost no) graphite plays in Tanzania have taken off in that time and yet the resource is there, it is defined, and it is in demand (but not as in demand as it is about to be). So are ACP BOD charlatans? Everyone will have an opinion I give them the benefit of the doubt. For me, the clock starts ticking when we see others progress because - a HUGE damn is being built to supply hydro, railway sidings are going to be built to ship the graphite to Dar es Salaam, roads are going to be built to truck the graphite to the railway, and once these things are starting to be built, and our graphite is just sitting there, and Posco are going public with 'we want more' it is fair to ask our BOD the question -> why aren't we building it yet? GLA

But I'm guessing you both already know all that......and are here to dupe. Any chance you're part of the crew that took the opco out?

Nice try guys. It's just a shame we had to write down the entire ZAIM opco in Russia (worth some £10m on the balance sheet) and currently don't have an opco we are trading through. As such we're a cash shell figuring out what to do next, with not necessarily a lot of cash. That's from a current shareholder (me). So I'm not eagerly anticipating a strong trading update, personally, as to all intents and purposes we are not currently trading......

And yet....you don't sell. So you either keep your stake because you think the sp will go higher (therefore, you believe the BOD will deliver, negating your current argument) or, you keep it so you have some justification for the daily one liner slating the BOD. If it were me I'd just sell but hey ho.... if Matt Bull bashing is your favourite hobby each to their own. It just doesn't make you money that (unless you are short of course and talking it down :)

One final point I didn't mention which stood out for me. De Vries is absolutely praising the economics of the project - of course he has to do that in his position but it is a key point. Even after Tanzania takes the 50% cut (tax + royalty + free carry interest), on the gross production the revenue is 3 or 4x the production cost. This is world class in any mining - he compares it to gold where that would equate to a 'lowest cost' gold producer but obviously they also have the graphite in vast quantity of reserve and long mine life (we have a shorter mine life but plenty of unexplored area to expand at ACP).

The economics are what make these projects standout (40-60-100% IRR) and make the Tanzanian govt free carry relatively moot. And that's with current economics and current forecast graphite pricing, before the deficit kicks in. You can probably add another few 10% onto IRR in a strong deficit market as the commodity appreciates.

As I always said I will judge ACP by when the first big miners kick off in Tanzania - it's what happens after that that is important for this company because we were _never_ going to frontrun it.

It's not guaranteed, but 1p does not reflect the risk vs reward here, not by any means. I have no more money (till next year) and a huge holding (I think north of 28m shares) so no rush to buy any but also no rush to sell any either. It will take time - by De Vries own admissions on that presentation it has taken a lot longer than they hoped and their shareholders are suffering also if you look at their sp graph.

It's impossible that the government hasn't been talking to Posco directly. So if they have any sense, the focus is strategic - we have one of/the largest deposits of graphite in Africa, and you are a strategic player globally in the production of end products from said graphite. How can we make this work. BKT is the gateway deal which will get Tanzanian graphite on the map and hopefully it should be _very_ easy for companies like ACP to start talking to Posco - the qualification they have already done of the same graphite with BKT. Posco should be all ears and possibly take a stake in projects like ACP also.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0LOC8Te06M&ab_channel=PaydirtTV

6.30 in: 'Posco is the largest anode producer outside China'

7.15 in: 'fines off Module 1 is 30,000 tonnes of flake, Posco could do with an order of magnitude more material'

7.25 in: 'I'm expecting to see POSCO integrating into other people's projects as we walk this forward'

The other key takeaway points are the sheer quality and quantity of infrastructure that is appearing making the BKT project a very clean low carbon footprint operation (hence you can sell the product to any market) and it also puts you bottom quartile on the cost curve.

That and the graphite deficit looming he talks about and the tipping point.

Yes I know - BKT mgt != ACP management and I expect many of the usual suspects to post many green boxes, but the macro, Tanzania, and crucially a global player, are all aligning very nicely. It doesn't guarantee an outcome, however.

I have backtested my algo against recent historical data and it works. Last green box midprice was at 129p after which we started rising. I will do well to trade with my algo in future. (To be fair Tony seems to be doing it quite well without the green boxes!) Basically lets face it 130p is just too cheap 4-6 months or so from first metal.

#HZM is on track to deliver Line 2 Feasibility Study in H2 this year.

The second line at Araguaia is expected to increase production by 100% to 29,000 tonnes of #Nickel per year.

$HZM

https://twitter.com/HorizontePLC/status/1698994655839363557

Assuming any of the usual suspect are actually short (which I doubt, I think they just don't have a better pastime and are yanking our chain) it's a very risky business. There's $80bn contained nickel (that's bn as in billion) and one of the biggest nickel producers in the world is a 17% shareholder already. Any one day they can drop the bid and it's +50% on the day and a most definite 'close your shorts' (pun intended) time. I take no joy in anybody losing money with the possible exception of when I'm making money and in this scenario I and other longs would be making money. There is also downside risk, of course, and a short position can work out but there is an awful lot of upside here and that upside can land far faster then you can close a short because the RNS can, and most likely will, land outside trading hours. GLA

That stake values BKT at $200m USD. Our current mcap is £5m GBP...join the dots...

....which would nearly be enough to finance our build in it's entirety...

Parting with $40m USD off the cuff....

https://blackrockmining.com.au/black-rock-signs-offtake-and-investment-mou-with-posco/

Yes my feeling was barclays -> vermelho but it's just a hunch we will see. Exciting time to be invested just wish the sp mirrored my level of excitement which sadly it does not!

If A2 is actually A2+A3 it gets a lot more interesting. This could explain barclays appointment and A2 dfs going back to end of year. Bigger project more capex. Again longer term it all comes out in the wash in the sense that the more production the higher the nav/npv but if you fund it early it will subdue the sp during the build so pushes out the date on which you see that return. If it was 2026 I could live with it. And this is where La Mancha's goals don't necessarily tally with our PI goals they probably have a longer time hotizon for a larger return, whereas some of us PI's are not getting younger by the day and have been invested since 2018 and many even before that.....