Member Info for wasarunner

A bid for the lot obviously is possible. This scenario doesn't overly concern me (except losing the long term potential upside) because I don't see why Orion, La Mancha etc would accept less than they already put in - ie 90p/140p area. And right now, I'd take that all day long. The bidder could be glen or it could be another miner. Gla

Some assumptions:

35% needed is the higher figure (not the $50m some people are hoping). I read it as 35% of total capex. Even the 6 month slip must cost a lot remember 6 month prod at nameplate was worth $150m. Assume nameplate moves back 6 months that's $150m assumed cashlow in the model that isn't there and every day you have a mine built/part built but not producing costs you money.nsome of the funding rewuirement is due to the delay.

So now the $1m question is how it can be funded. I think it will be funded because the majors will not want to lose their investments and even after the additional capex it eill be a lucrative mine. The fact ewuity is split 3 ways really helps here because if there was only 1 cornerstone I think it is easy for them to buy it. But there are 3 and I think this saves the day.

Its impossible to do equity at the current level. It would take all the cornerstones well over 30%. So thr market got the level wrong and I think we will rerate upwards but not to a price they can do equity (ie we won't get back to £1 before financing). So options I can see:

Equity above market price (cornerstones are saving their stakes and once funded will rerate bsck to ewuity price anyway)

Some kind of debt vehicle between banks and cornerstones.

My fears are:

Three club together to take it private. My feeling is Orion and La Mancha don't want it private as then its illiquid. This might save the day.

I don't know hoe thry progress a2. My whole investment thesis and my probable exit point was a2 producing. With an additional ,- lets call it $200m - to service for a1 how does a1 ever enable us to build a2 from anything like fcf. Maybe its possible but years away but that's not why La Mancha invested they eant this built out. They want 60k tonnes not 14k tonnes.

Anyway unlike others I haven't been able to benefit from any of the irrationality so will hold tight for outcome. I now expect less overall outcome but probably more to do with the additional debt burden than a massive equity wipeout though I feel some dilution feels inevitable. Eatly days but my revised target (from 3-£4 a2 producing) is £1-2 it eould do me but a2 may be delayed by this curveball. Gla

Tardis you contradicted yourself there surely? If a mine getting financed down the road paves the way for Armadale how are we not waiting for the mine dosn the road to get financed (and infrastructure built...) I think the benefit is twofilold - other investors will see that these projects can get financed/licenced in Tanzania, secondly there will be road/rail/electric to the area which acp directly benefit from (and don't have to fund?)

But in proper contrarian fashion I bought more anyway. Sold another stock at loss and bought this one at loss in a downward spiral of portfolio madness.....

Maybe someone buys us for 100p not sure. But the question is would you trust them with A2? I'm not convinced. Better to sell it if you can't bring the project home for whatever small premium you can get on the SP once it settles.

It was always a risk, contrarian was right (well done), but it bodes badly for projects in general. $433m DFS -> $1bn? capex increase is huge, it means when you read the A2 DFS you might want to double it and add some. Then figure how much convertable bonds will dilute if they don't deliver on the number first thought of.

As an engineer myself, it happens and this is a complex project. Yes My portfolio is foobarred my two biggest investments HZM down by what half, ACP down by 80%, my third investment suspended and haven't even had time to look if they announced anything. Is AIM worth it? Definitely not, in hindsight.

Digging in for the long haul I guess if someone wants it cheap, it'll come. Perhaps that's why Barclays are onboard.

Reason I think 2025-2030 is obviously:

- interest rate cycle will have peaked

- a recession will have been weathered

- commodity bull run will arrive

Bigger, strategic players (like Posco, like big Auto) will be positioning ahead of the cycle because they have to source the stuff from somewhere. GLA

Dee I agree with many of your points (I'm working so haven't loads of time to digest everything) but the most salient ones for me are this:

- retail can't wait the amount of time it takes for (junior) mining companies to deliver against (unfavourable) macro. They just don't have that time horizon. We have people on the Horizonte board who have been invested 10 (ten) years, and if you scroll back the RNS in around 2016 they were hopeful to build a mine (or two). Well, the mine is being built and it's now less than 6 months to first metal but they've been invested 10 (ten) years. They'll make money. But they had to wait for it.

The ones who will make the most money are the ones who bought the most (chap called Craig over there, topping up throughout the 'bear' period for nickel). I got in slightly later, but I'll do just fine and thank you very much. I bought when every institutional seller was selling. Here, I tried to pull the same trick figuring Kabunga just 'had to go' at any price, hasn't worked out as well yet here.

That is precisely the point people can't wait. You can't finance a mine like this at the bottom of the market it would be suicide. Matt Bull knows this, I know this, would be financiers know this. Even Blackrock who have really big players onboard/aligned are struggling to get their finance over the line (at least, on terms that will be acceptable to shareholders). But we all knew this _because we invested in a plot of land in the middle of the Tanzanian outback far far from everything_. So the gamble is, graphite is enough in demand, commodities are enough in demand, that by hook or by crook the investment can be raised to deliver the mine.

I believe it can, and I believe it will happen in 2025-2030 (mine financed here, mine built here, by the current mgt team). That's why I find todays RNS reassuring that we have the runrate to make sure it happens. Obviously I would prefer 2025, like everyone on this board, and indeed I would have preferred 2022 or 2023 but it didn't happen.

Would I be adding if I had spare cash? Probably. If I had surplus income, like all those years I bought Horizonte at the low I'd be adding here but I don't (we sold our business so there's no surplus income). Dee is right - this is when you make the money. Or, if you're slightly more risk averse, you watch for the reversal in both macro and the company and try to time it right but the move up can be quite quick and catching the bottom can be hard. 1p and 2p will land very quickly IMO. GLA

£20k/mth burn and just under £1.9m cash + equity. No debt. That's just under 8 years of run rate.

$400-500m NPV mine valued at £2.5m ex cash.

Show me a better place to weather the storm of a battered and bruised junior commodities market. AIM All share again at multi multi year lows.

It will change when - interest rates turn - money back into equities - commodity cycle picks up - Tanzania allows progress. Until then it's as you were, and if you're brave like Dee, you're buying. GLA

That's what I'm thinking - I do believe once before they announced the extension _after_ the deadline. But I would expect to hear by early next week latest.

I think it's one or more going 'this is very cheap now for what it is'. I've thought that way before (and still do esp at current price) but no cash to benefit from this low price at present. Of course whether they're right or not time will tell I thought that at 2p and 1p more recently and bought....

>>Patience at 10 years from initial buys and hanging in there.

Baggy perfectly drinkable whiskies have matured in less time than you have held those shares (just to merge the threads again :)). I hope it works out for you!

A1 28yr LOM x 14.5kt = 400kt nickel

inventory on latest corp presentation 3m tonnes 'come and get our tonnes'

available to allocate - 2.6m tonnes, 60kt x 30yr LOM is still only 1.8m tonnes or 70% of contained resource

Glencore buyers/offtakers/shareholders

La Mancha / Orion major shareholders

Barcap tier 1 global investment bank appointed corporate broker

The downramping is almost amusing in its futility. Short of hugely ballsing up the build (at which point you probably wouldn't appoint Barclays) long term this is going one way. And short term - well the stock market is always what it is short term. It's why one should always 'buy the dip' :) GLA

Hi SJ, not a big (whisky) drinker myself but do dabble especially this time of year. Sadly beer is my downfall otherwise my moniker could be 'isarunner' or similar. On Horizonte then - in theory we should get an operational update in the next few weeks if it follows the pattern. On the latest corporate video still looked like there was plenty left to do but of course it could have been produced a good while ago. Still think something is a'brewin as it was a surprise to see the A2 dfs move back to later this year when it had quite a precise timeline on it. We shall see. We enter a very interesting quarter week after next....

If I'd just bought a little more of the £35 whiskey earlier this year I'd have outperformed both US treasuries and HZM but that's hindsight trading for you :) GLA - I think good things are afoot and the sp doesn't yet reflect what's coming....

>>Volume has completely dried up here-a paltry 3,240 shares as I write.Feels like something is going on.But what...

We've all run out of cash to buy more shares. I just got back from Tesco and the whiskey that used to cost £35 is now £50. Not good - that's another £15 less to buy Horizonte shares with, the difference would have got you around 11 shares a small amount for sure but multiply it by days x weeks x number of PI investors and it all adds up.

As to why Fidelity aren't trying to buy every share that anybody is prepared to sell, perhaps their clients are likewise baulking at the cost of other goods and not ploughing into funds....

but like you I do think 'things are afoot' and indeed we enter the very interesting stage of 'would be producer come and make us an offer we can't refuse....' or to use JM's words specifically 'compelling'....

Seeing a lot of negativity again, looks like a buy signal to me. Possibly (I can't see all the posts) Sunak, a PM who will be in power < 12 months remaining and presiding over < 1% of world pop reneging on a date 5yrs hence, by which time he will be long gone and someone else could be calling the shots. Or not.

Meanwhile, in other news, Horizonte appoint Barclays, a tier 1 global international investment bank, to oversee their share price diminishing, and their 4 million tonnes of proven nickel reserves waste away underground. Or, perhaps, not ;)

It reads like the gold produced is for Q3. But a tad ambiguous

This statement is concerning of course:

"the Board is therefore confident of obtaining an extension in the coming weeks, however it is noted that there can be no certainty as to the outcome of these discussions and that, if an extension cannot be agreed, security over the Company's primary assets could potentially be enforced."

the only protection really we've got as shareholders is the other big investors (like the people who invested in January this year) who would be wiped out if AIMS took the lot.

My other question is what is paying for opex right now. That's not a lot of gold to pay opex and attempt to repay the gold loan so where is cash coming from? The soon to be released accounts (which unfortunately will now be 9 months out of date?) won't reveal all.

>>250oz of gold.

which is hopefully not the 'full pace' at which mining is continuing - i.e. it would be better if the pace was higher.

>>I'm reliably informed the mining work is continuing, at full pace.

Informed by whom - if it's a reliable source then somebody close to the company - any chance they could inform all investors/shareholders - I believe the traditional mechanism for doing this is via the the Regulatory News Service (RNS)? Because the only publicly available information at the moment is that 8 2/3 months into the year we have produced 250oz of gold.

But by your own thesis most aim junior miners fail so you invested in something which you felt on the balance of probabilities therefore would fail but you would trade the swing on the news that the bod put out which you felt would help the sp short or mid term. When I realised the bod weren't genuine (on other stocks) I took the hit and moved on having bought them as investments and took the loss. Because you aren't prepared to do that you believe it will come 'better' if not 'good'. We will see. Like Dee I still believe it will come good failing that get sold and I get money back +/-.