Member Info for warrantwatcher

OK, so we know that the Open Offer window means that existing SH's will need to inform their brokers by COP on the 24th of their intent to participate in the offer. There has been some mention in the last updates of 2 GTW deals being close to completion. The optimistic view could be that they plan to complete the GTW deals before the OO completes ? Especially as currently the SP is at the same price as the OO price.

So looking at what the potential of the GTW could be, and yes this is just one view & musings but if you take the figure given by Alison at the AGM - £25m per year revenue - take off say £5m for production costs etc (probably more) - and then take 15% of that - you are looking at circa £3m to NUOG - take off op costs so maybe £40m Market cap for each deal - circa 2.5p on the SP for each deal added of this level ?

That would be the potential once the revenue is flowing - but you have to take into account that will be in 18 to 24 months time, maybe more as NUOG don't have a track record of doing anything with great urgency.

If you look at something like PVF after the barryroe farm in deal - that only doubled the share price in the first instance - and even over 12 months later is still only around double the deal. Yes the potential for other deals will have to be taken into account - but you have to balance that the company are currently pretty much broke and need money - and even if they get the open offer away they only have 450k (after fees) which won’t take them far.

So realistically if it get back above 1p from this level that would be good (and would no doubt involve a lot of profit taking) - In reality it should get to a new high - above 2p - but just don’t be surprised if it doesn’t.

If Minty converts his debt for equity I think it might go a bit higher than that - but we need to keep in mind that the history here is pretty awful - and if you look in the accounts Minty still has quite a lot of money to extract. However for me should Minty do a debt for equity this could be an even greater indicator of greater growth being more likely.

The other option is that they fail to complete the GTW deal in time and the OO just drifts leaving Novum to take the amount not taken in the OO

I see there is another article from them exposing more of the alleged going ons around the Alerion deal and possible market abuse. Not sure how he has done it but in the article it is showing emails between Elliott Talbott, Leon Hogan & John Zorbas.

Interesting that Zorbas is using the Captor Capital email address so I am guessing that is his main vehicle, I wonder what the structure & people involved with that are like what relationship they have with other " companies "

so I guess anybody that buys in now would be included in the vote ?

That there hasn't been anything released about the EGM vote ?

just about to read it

It's not a case of just a single vote though is it, there are a couple of votes to go through

Trout, surely that would be visible to the authorities so while sidestepping 1 issue walking straight into another ?

Wombat, with your industry experience have you looked at PYC ?

CK1, no it wasn't a comment aimed at you at all.

Personally I am of the same stance as you, and I can tell you that within the group that I am in we do have some very honest exchange in views, it is far from a cult, but everyone is entitled to their own view.

Likewise I would say that anyone invests on anything that they read via social media or BB's like this really does deserve to lose their money as quite frankly thats a recipe for disaster.

Clearly Royscot won't name names but will happily sling mud around & make insinuations which in my book is poor form.

please help me understand what you are saying, what are the twitter ID's you refer to, if you are looking to offer a public service pointing out the names will be best for all ?

I think its well known to all that these insider games are exactly as Seadog laid out previously, it is now obvious that Minty has a network of people that he happily talks to, and the cynic in me feels that he knows & hopes that they take the message further. Its been going on long enough for us all to figure it out.

I believe that there are a number of different twitter groups with some people in more than 1 of the groups, I would also guess that there are also groups on other social media, it happens in most shares these days as people look to share information, trouble is a lot of this is 2nd / 3rd hand and in the current climate there is desperation to announce anything 1st, it's the same in main stream news, it's part of the digital age ?

From the NUOG group that I am in I don't think there is any of the 18 members that are anything less than honest, we share ideas & research as well as bounce theories off each other, I can honestly say there has never been a " call to arms " in anyway. If anything its more laughing at some of the goings on around NUOG & it's quirky PI community

Especially those that appear to be almost bi-polar in their views / stance

You have no chance of that happening, he has always hidden behind the " closed period " theory, he hasn't put anything of his own into this company for some time, I can't see him changing that now. Neither do I see the latest additions to the team investing their own money into this.

I honestly hope that I am wrong but just can't see it. All we will get is a list of excuses why they haven't when the truth is they don't see it as a viable investment case

My guess is that Dame Ann Gloag could be the one selling, after all she sold some back in Feb ( doesn't seem that was a smart move now ) so she might have moved some more ?

Which ever and whoever we need seller for there to be buyers, hopefully the impact will be that we now have some cooling off on the technicalities and form a new base around the current levels. That said with the news they keep dropping it might be a minimal breather being applied !

Re funding: £1.3m admin costs for FY18, reported 31st Dec, with a cash position of £2.1m.

Even if admin costs increased by 50% on January 1st and no revenue was generated for the entirity of 2019 Bidstack still has enough cash to run through into 2020

However, revenues ever increasing and management reiterated the expectation of meeting market expectations of £5.85 million revenue for 2019. Now bear in mind £317k was achieved in ~2.5 months with 1 game and a new sales team without any DSPs and we have since had another 2 games come online and 2 DSPs with more games and DSPs anticipated imminently - James implied by July at the investor event we would be able to see new games and a new platform. Trade Desk? West Coast tech company?

This leads me to believe that the in game native piece is very quickly going to lead the company to be self funding and that this can be achieved from current cash balances, monthly profitability is forecast for October under current [reiterated for meeting] market guidance

In my view, if the company wanted to raise capital to grow another area of the business such as AR in future, just a single phone call would be required to access any growth capital required. I think that with the Mike Hayes appointment any and all city broker financing is effectively locked out. Aka if any funding is done it will be either VC, Debt or Growth Fund.

Bolgas, beat me to it !

I would also add that SHOULD BIDS need to raise funds ( which isn't always a bad thing ) then with the latest additions to the Advisory Board we could well see an II buying in rather than a bucket shop placing.

Now imagine if a Silicone Valley Investment Financier decides to get involved ? as I am guessing it would only be to accelerate growth and keep up with the higher level of inbound enquiries we are taking ?

What ever your views on TW are , got to say the questions that he asks are very valid and need answers to ?

Based on the fact that the company has the request of the GM with the resolutions to remove John Zorbas and Timothy Jones then to appoint Nigel Burton, Trevor Brown and Daniel Smith tells me that there are plenty of other parties actively pursing this.

I would say based on todays RNS the current BOD / Nomad are concerned about the way this whole debacle will play out, if you are already invested you must ensure your vote is included, personally if the vote goes like the ANR one and ZOrbas & co get removed then this business is one I would look to invest in

Even within the RNS today theres bits that cause me to ask questions on the motives of the current board.

As an example £81k on marketing for Alerion business ? yet they are looking to use the drones on their own facilities, would love to know what the £81k is being spent on and with whom, I wonder if it will be spent on something meaningful like sponsoring a UFC fighter and be facilitated by a consultant ?

The fee for introducing someone is a standard practice & the argument is that it negates a recruitment fee, however the level of the fee is what is quite shocking. In the industry I am in we pay around 12% but unto 20% dependant of role, other parts of the business I am in have paid up to 25% for some real heavy hitters, but this is always done as a % of the earnings of the individual.

In this case MRS have paid over 50% of the salary of the person he's introduced, nice work if you can get it.

Just raises the question on the logic as to who agreed this & is it in the best interests of the business ??

Think they have been backed into a corner to release the details that they have today, just hope that there is enough backing for Nigel, Trevor & Dan to step in as then the company would be in a far better position moving forward rather than the current crew at the helm.

Some of the details that have come out today are comical. £19,000 introduction fee for someone that was well known feels like taking at every opportunity from the company, I would have preferred that the introduction was done and the reward came from the increase in the SP - as thats what others in similar positions have done. These are the little things that point you in the direction of peoples drivers.

Amnesic, thanks as always for the posts below, really informative and worth taking the time to read through them fully, although as only 3 people before me have liked them I am not sure there are many looking in on this. I am sure they will once the news starts to drip out and the re-rate kicks in