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Having listened to a ground-out England win I returned to Shanta matters. Whilst lengthy, but well written, it is recommended that readers grind through both articles in the link below. The first is on the 2016 mining act and the second leaves the impression that local miners around Kakamega will be incapable of addressing requirements in the high-tech era.

https://www.theelephant.info/reflections/2020/11/18/time-to-address-compensation-and-resettlement-issues-in-kenyas-mining-sector/

Originally I had set out to see how the Wagagai mine development was progressing just across the border, in the Mt Elgon catchment. It seems to have come to a halt despite the Chinese having thrown money (?$51m) at it a couple of years back.
For me, it is relevant as the plan is to continue the Tira mine at depth (similar to EZ's suspicion on the Bushiangala complex). Whether resettlement of locals in Busia, Uganda, (not to be confused with Busia county, adjacent to Kakamega) is creating an obstacle is unknown. See -

https://www.newvision.co.ug/news/1487825/busia-modern-gold-mining-project

All areas listed below have small-scale mining extraction. No one really knows annual production/yields as most of it is smuggled through Somalia, Uganda and possibly DR Congo. All counties around Rosterman, incl. Kisumu, Siaya, Vihiga, Kakamega, Pokot, Mikei, Masara, Osiri and even Turkana in the north re involved.

CD @ 18:53
re: last paragraph - I'm hopeful the worm will turn. Not a good week, especially after having added @ 13.848p.

Also I spent some time on the Lake Victoria greenstone. It seems nearly 250,000 - far more than I thought - are engaged in artisanal ops. The information stretches from Migori to Kakamega and beyond. The deposits are therefore widespread. It has real implications for Shanta drilling success.

I can fill in the details but hesitate on adding any more claptrap.

I added quite a bit more today. It helps bring down the average.

Made a point of listening again to EZ's 17 November presentation. The extra IIs/funds to have come on board indicated they would remain invested for 3 - 5 years. The likelihood is they were swayed by a dividend carrot. Otherwise the subscription @ 16.5p would not have been so heavily over-subscribed.

I might have been slightly neutral and/or sceptical about the Lihranda corridor in the early days but my interpretation of papers on the region - esp. Huddlestone's - has changed my understanding. Big results will come out of the 150k metres infill drilling (addtional to the 221k metres drilling since 2010) over the next 24 months.

Masumbi says, "There is a gold rush in my village. Every jobless youth is now involved in gold prospecting. Can hardly find casuals or artisans to work on my house project. The few who agree want me to pay almost twice the rate. I know there is gold on my property because when they were digging the foundation the workers discovered seam of gold dust and some specks of gold. Gold prospecting in the village has been on and off since my Dad's youth or even earlier and that is how my dad financed his way through high school."

[I was trying to find an update on the September order to shut down all artisanal mining activity around Kakamega. It was effective for a few weeks. If the bb is followed by anyone in Guernsey or Dar could they please advise drill bit status at Bushiangala. A tweet will suffice. Or are we to understand a starting date is on hold?]

None too pleased with the present SHG treatment but it's no reason to stop examination. I was particularly taken by Laboucan's (Advance) comments which included -

". . . all dip in the same direction, often in these systems the veins can come together at depth and are open for thousands of metres of depth". See -

https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/62603/Advance-Gold-Provides-Update-On-Its-HighGrade-Gold-Joint-Venture-Project-In-West-Kenya

I am not suggesting we have replicas of the Welkom, Odendaalsrus or Witwatersrand deep mines, although it is possible that previously considered worked-out tunnels are host to extensive vein systems going down many thousands of metres. And if with further research I can establish the region has dolomitic rock, granite, etc then we could be looking at a Rosterman revival even without engaging Bushiangala and Isulu. Another map diagram outlines the area:

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-Rosterman-gold-mine-site-11_fig1_341343326
(I also wondered why John Makokha of Kibabii University · Science Technology and Engineering has been collecting radioactive samples from the passages.)

Given the circumstances, strong cash position, balance sheet and fundamentals I ask myself if there are concert parties at work here. If so, a hostile bid of 30p+ would still be a bargain. Also, I can not see anything that threatens to disrupt progress in the medium term. Other than trucks seized (acting on tip-offs) carrying weapons to the Ugandan border it's quite peaceful. North Mozambique IS activity is nothing new and it's more of nuisance value to Tanzania.

EZ/LL's company brokers will know what's going on.

Some very good stuff on the bb. and I am undecided about chasing yet another strong prospect. Suffice to say I have signed up for notifications. It would, of course, have been better to be more awake several months ago. Naturally I shall cling to everyone's coattails in the time ahead.

Download https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Geology-of-the-Busia-Kakamega-Greenstone-Belt-western-Kenya_fig1_305918166

Published June 2016 the Nyanzian metavolcanics are generally interesting although the main focus for Shanta followers can be found from p.148 onwards. My own local interest is unfortunately confined to NoordKaap, Kalahari, where I examined mineralisation in the granites, and Witwaterstrand, Transvaal and Namibia . East Africa examination was largely cursory because of limited accessibility.

There are useful previously unknown sundry details, one of them the high yields at Rosterman, which is just up the road from Bushiangala and Isulu. Bushi is likely to be the better performer from what I recall of past drilled sampling. The above is certainly one of the better research notes.

I expectantly look forward to EZ's drilling update . . . can't be that far off.

None of us wants to see our investment pot shrinking. There are very few things more galling to an investor. My own mind is made up on further purchases, much of it firmed by continuing activity from presently unknown institutions. Admittedly none of them have similar intense sensitivities because it is not their money but they do have a responsibility in retaining clientele.

Bristow seems to be putting his weight behind his three Tanz mines and nine more licences there. So Magafuli's 16%er can't be all that threatening. West Kenya development is some time off but I reason Nairobi is going to be very reliant on Shanta's presence and success. Without the company they are not going to see a gold industry in the Lihranda corridor. IMO there are potential pickings all the way up to Mt Elgon national park, i.e. ~100 km from Kakamega to Kitale. I would have thought there are pockets of greenstone in the shadow of the volcano.

(PoG currently $16/oz up.)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/05/03/20-years-since-the-uks-massive-gold-sales-heres-the-big-lesson-for-gold-investors/

Whilst nearly all smallish gold stocks I have been following are again in casualty today some history has been revisited. The biggest read was on the above link, an event most of us remember very well (what an idiot that guy was). Clarity on the present Shanta situation is difficult to find. I accept all the arguments put forward this evening plus others that preceded them.

I also tried to find explanations for reduction and sales by IIs/funds and came up empty-handed. SC's dump was forced, i.e. straightening their books. One or two others have not been clear. And Odey is apparently not only exiting but also extending into at least one other fund. But on re-appraisal why so much of the musical chairs? My own exercise is to bring forward further buying after noting a sub-15p fall -- unexpected -- and when to do it.

EZ has shown nearly all his hand. He couldn't have spelt it out any better than he has done. There are no emerging producers that have the array of Shanta, both near- and medium-term. And he has committed to a first divvy payment within six months. A co-operative gold price would be immensely helpful.

Kenya highlands is a pleasant place to be. Tanzania can be inhospitable and tough: Dodoma was really tough (scorching) as I recall. (Highveld, you seem to know the region well).

Forty orders from about 50 institution meetings, mostly from the UK and US. That's very good going.
And a good newsflow to come in the next few months.
He sounded a bit tired in the interview. Hardly surprising . . . a demanding schedule.
First drilling rig on its way to Bushi/;Isulu.

EZ/LL have a rather large roadmap in front of them. Besides further exploration at NL and Singida they also have another 12 sq.km prospect down at Songea (see -10.650655, 35.646601). There are possibly others in Tanzania which may come to light after an IPO on the Dar exchange.

The Lihranda corridor interest remains unclear but I had thought there is a possibility of up to seven licences in the pipeline. EZ definitely has his hands full, and could be drawn into the Kakamega refinery proposition.

There will always be something to look forward to each morning @ 07:00.

Have watched and listened twice. It has to be assumed that out of 50+ institutional meetings in quick time - many of them American - that the intense interest will convert to more II entries. If that is the case a point will be reached when available shares are in short supply. It will accordingly drive up the SP and it remains to be seen by how much. Hardman puts a fair value price @ ~31p.

SC are now below disclosable threshold. Odey are surely rearranging furniture by exiting one fund type and transferring to another.

I look forward to a first divvy.

Spoke to a East European acquaintance today. In sum he ridiculed the Moscow vaccine claim and has been equally scathing about Pfizer. JPM's assessment on PoG next year @ $2,300/oz may turn out to be right.

https://www.hardmanandco.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Nov-2020-Hardman-Mining-Investor-Forum-Programme.pdf

Our fair value for SHG is 31.7p, which is summarised in the table below.
Shanta Gold: estimated valuation
(000s) US$ £
NLGM 120,434 93,360
Singida 54,917 42,572
West Kenya 208,610 161,713

Add: net cash 43,064 33,383
Total 427,025 331,027
No. of shares (m) 1,043.5 1,043.5
Valuation per share 40.9c 31.7p

Tinkering this evening. Think I'll work another year to accumulate a bit more cash for SHG. Have scrapped CEY candidature for the moment. OMI deserves consideration. SOLG likely to lurch on for some time yet. FTSE holdings thankfully climbing again.

Not going at all well but better informed parties have been caught out. The one point that is predictable has been the unpredictability in the past couple of weeks. So I don't feel too badly holed beneath the waterline. We should remember that SHG by the nature of its low-cost model will still be profitable @ c$1,700/oz if it becomes the norm.

WK presentation should inject some oomph.

@ 3pm
I'll listen to what is said on Senala webinar but am treating the exercise with scepticism. I am sure others will disagree.

@ 07:33
Noted for future reference.
Lining up my ducks at the moment.

At present undecided but leaning towards a positive decision in the next couple of days. Looks good.

https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/samsamwater1/maps/kenya/geology/Geology+of+the+Kakamega+District.pdf

Busy on another project at the moment so have not read all of it . . . gets interesting from page 22 onwards.
Huddlestone was an eminent geologist and has published more than one paper on Kakamega.

We should not overlook the impact of MauMau which was a factor in pulling out in 1952 - 53. I recall listening as a boy to conversations of several families affected by farm murders. Many of them pulled out and the last one finally capitulated during the days of Jomo K, leaving a prosperous dairy farm in ruin at Ngong.

Harrison's (Barrick) comments c2011 should not be overlooked: their business was geared to large-scale mining. And even during that time they were looking for a specialist low-cost open pit partner. I remain hopeful that WK represents another breakthrough for Shanta.