Member Info for viable

@ 12:59 - "we can envisage that exploratory drilling will test an enormous vertical column of 3 to 3.5km".

Numbers often quoted by SOLG are in danger of becoming beyond reality. Western Deep on the Witwatersrand at 3.9 km is just about the deepest mine in the world. Rather than getting too lyrical the company should fix its sights on quickly launching a project.

Alpala with 700+ employees was the flagship. Maybe they are all on furlough or growing vegetables. Alternatively many of them have been transferred south or elsewhere.

sic @ 13:02
JL and LL.

@ 13:08
And perhaps join a couple more dots. Both EL and LL are Tanz citizens.
Shall be adding a piece on Migori/Lake Vic later.

I see J Leslie, an ex-East African, has taken up ~29m SHG. He will almost certainly have a good grasp of the Lake Victoria greenstone.

Not enjoying the downward pressure on the SP. Thought it might happen and I shall add on the dip.

@ 18:20 - That's my language. Glad we have a geologist on board. Have always been uneasy over lack of contour information, watersheds and runoff.

Have cancelled a long narrative on the subject but have one question: Do you know if there are extensive granite formations in any of the licences?

A smile here. The only thing I can be sure of is NM et al. do not have the capacity to handle ALL the tenements on their own. The mining ministry may have something to say about slow progress. In which case at least one project will have a for sale sign. It would be a surprise to see Cascabel becoming the candidate. And Porvenir is fast proving to be irresistible.
Thanks for all the input this weekend. Good stuff.

If you haven't already done so, would you be good enough to put up your latest views on the SOLG board. I'll check tomorrow late pm. Thanks.

This is one fella who is going to keep quiet for the foreseeable. I was wrong-footed by that 6pm news, having felt company development policy would be carefully managed and staged.

Subsequent impressions are -
* WK project could eventually cost > $150m by 2023;
* without Shanta's input Kakamega revival (and Nairobi gold ambitions) will be halted;
* In the last few months alone Shanta has barely paused;
* Tanz government has really dragged its feet on VAT subject: the press releases are meaningless;
* a study of available or suspended mine ops might be another milestone proposition for EZ, especially Buhemba;
* all commentary from bb. camp followers has been informative.

I'll continue buying but @ sub16.50p.

A final thought to illustrate our limitations. Highveld, Trek and I probably know this but we lost it in the fine detail.
i.e. In separate African states, you have to establish separate companies.
viz. Shanta (Tanzania)(Pty) Ltd and Shanta (Kenya)(Pty) Ltd.
Kenya has to be a separate entity with its own capital base or that is how I am starting to see it.

sic - 09:32 @ 16.815

It would be welcome but on present evidence it is unlikely to happen, The bid is edging up.

Still fuming over the 6pm news but, having slept on it, another few months of graft should recover the unwanted paper loss. Most of the comments have been fair although many omit salient points. Perhaps we each have our own slanted view of the picture. One of them is Acacia in the past tense.

Agreed they were very professional and generous contributors. If, however, three indigenous employees are building their own nests there are consequences. London together with Barrick can not control everything; there has to be trust over what's going on out in the sticks. In addition I believe EZ has partly given up on chasing the VAT waiver. Hence it becomes the biggest factor in raising cash. Nonetheless he did mislead us on cash availability.

Perhaps this is one book-build exercise that could be successful. The bid continues to edge up (16.815 @ 08:32). We should also remember that retail investors, like it or not, are superfluous to requirements. The IIs and the funds are going to pile in.

Still haven't cooled down.
Why not wait until Feb 2021?
By which time VAT refund could have been settled,
hedge gone,
gold price > $2,000,
NLGM and Singida well advanced.

OR is Nairobi exerting pressure? If they are, Eric must say as much.

Damn it. Just got in from a tough day and EZ has torpedoed me below the waterline. And for two days I had been trying to determine who was screwing us, thinking it was a shorter at work.

The Swiss will be the most displeased of all. Yet on the other hand how could Shanta combine NLGM, Singida and infill drilling at Isulu on a shoestring. I always felt that EZ and LL would take a measured approach stage managing the scenarios.

With 5 minutes to go before cut-off there is little point in applying, especially as the fund managers, etc will have gone in boots 'n all. Book building has been known to be very successful. More often than not the daily SP has often dropped below the offer a few days later.

In sum, thoughts of 35p by year end are possibly now wishful thinking. To add to it all SOLG is also hitting the buffers.

Apols. In a hurry on the keyboard re last sentence. Live bid @ 10:08 = 17.755 and looking a bit pale.

Someone shorting at the moment although I can't find any details on short positions. I keep the day job going for another year. No change on my opinion i.r.o. although slightly miffed by Bara's slightly reduced assessment of sub-1m oz prospects for Bushi/Isulu. Early days . . ..

@ 14:42
Apparently at the moment the only party (or parties) who agree with you - and consistently so - is the 50k buyer. Everyone else takes a laid-back attitude. In the UK the bulk of the population takes the view Rishi is going to bail them out.

21-Oct-20 14:30:24 18.032 50,000 Buy* 17.75 18.25 9,016 O
21-Oct-20 14:29:17 17.985 50,000 Sell* 17.75 18.25 8,993 O

Keeping the powder dry . . ..
More than just a little surprised over CEY's second car crash today. I had been considering it @ 149p thinking it could not get any worse. Alternatively adding to SOLG could result in another 2-year wait. So it's back to SHG but pausing to see if any nervous retail investors pull the edifice down leading up to Magufuli's re-election.

I took Highveld's opinion on board but do not regard Tanazania in quite the same light as the ANC or Mugabe's destructive capabilities. The following has just come up -

https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tanzania-elections-set-to-widen-africas-democratic-deficit

@ 20:39
Not so sure. The Daily Maverick is always a good read.
Tundu Lissu will make a big difference to the country's development and progress.
Our head honcho is possibly also quietly looking for Lissu to upset the applecart.

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2020-10-18-tundu-lissu-is-tanzanias-best-hope-of-defeating-president-john-magufuli/

Tanzania general election

Tanzanian President John Magufuli will face 14 challengers in elections scheduled for 28 October,

Could have . . . should have . . . and didn't. Too busy to sit on the computer today. And seeing a 500k trade @ 18.4125p suggests the stock is not going to remain sub-19p for long. It had been a definite to add much more to SHG after deciding BlackRock were up to no good.

Someone else with better skills can fill us in here. BlackRock are notorious (in the last 10+ years) for shorting a stock. There are several examples: the first one to catch my attention was Atlantic Coal. It could be they are scuppered this time. Had they pursued it, that would have been a big invitation and entry point for a company in which I have developed a very keen interest.

The SP could rise quite strongly over the next three trading days.