RE: Myles M.5 Mar 2024 10:56
Yles McNulty
@MylesMcNulty
Glad to see a line drawn under this affair at #AVCT.
At least management chose not to dilute even further, but rejected all subscriptions from non-holders (which I gather was a substantial sum) to buy in the REX offer at 50p.
Approx. £42m cash in the bank now, which sees the company through to H1 2026. Hopefully another £25m+ cash to be recouped through selling the Diagnostics division over the next 12 months too, as well as any upfront cash from potential licensing deals. Besides the HCI convertible bond and outstanding options, I sincerely hope that is the last of the equity dilution before the inevitable takeover.
With everything that's happened in recent weeks, many (the majority?) may simply now not believe that Avacta's pre | CISION is as good as the company has been suggesting, e.g. "pre|CISION can change the way in which cancer is treated", "revolutionize the treatability of solid tumors", etc.
The crux of the matter is though that the AVA6000 trial has already proved beyond doubt that the platform is as good as management suggests. No MTD yet discovered. Efficacy data already emerging (which should be enough for people to understand that efficacy data will only improve, with higher / more regular doses, and when treating indications that are usually treated with anthracyclines).
Assuming a DX sale can be completed, and a first major licensing deal landed, Avacta should have sufficient cash to bring AVA6000 through to market approval for at least one indication (likely, accelerated approval for soft tissue sarcoma in the US only, after a pivotal Phase 2).
Management really needs to start pitching pre | CISION as a (superior) alternative to antibody-drug conjugates now - as that's what the investment community understands and can ascribe value to (see the plethora of multi-billion $ licensing deals and takeovers in the ADC space, over the past few years).
That Avacta is sitting here with a mkt cap of £180m (post-impending dilution), with possibly