Good write up from X21 Dec 2024 07:24
Https://x.com/Tom_The_Bomb__/status/1870106292003520811
@Tom_The_Bomb__
For those unaware, Chris 'Chalk and Cheese' Twelves is now the Principal Investigator for #AVCT’s lead asset, AVA6000. Chris specialises in early and late-phase breast cancer clinical trials.
For three years,
@avacta
publicly focused on Orphan indications, specifically Soft Tissue Sarcoma (STS), earning FDA Orphan Designation in 2022. A huge achievement.
In 2024, Avacta expanded to include Salivary Gland Cancer (SGC) and Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC), both areas with high unmet need. Peel Hunt said the following in November: “For salivary gland cancer, there is no standard-of-care chemotherapy, which creates an indication with a high unmet need for a treatment.”
TNBC, an aggressive cancer with limited treatments, has a market projected to reach $20B by 2030. AVA6000 could revolutionise the treatment of STS, SGC and TNBC by safely taming and delivering 'red devil'.
2024 also brought leadership changes after a shocking 50p placing (8% higher than where we sit today though 😭). New CEO Christina joined in April, prioritising funding for their innovation. However, CFO uncertainty since June has left financial strategy unclear and updates on the CFO search have been lacking.
Sentiment has continued to be low since the summer, with a -42% m'cap reduction in 5 months made worse by the CLN. I hoped for a resolution by Q4 2024 to start the new year in a much more positive way. I'm hoping that the DX sale is close and this will trigger either (1) the removal of the CLN via institutional investment or (2) clear guidance that Avacta will pay in cash going forward. The impact on sentiment and price will be huge. The CLN continues to deter new investors and raises concerns about the board’s handling of the CLN knowing the impact that it has every couple of months.
I don't want the above to come across too pessimistically, but ultimately 2024 was a very poor year as an Avacta investor. The science gets better every time I read up on it though.
Despite the challenges, the investment case for Avacta remains very strong. I continue to top-up at every opportunity because of the amazing science. That is what BP will pay for.
2025 is the year that the Management must deliver for existing investors. Many have been invested before we knew it 'worked'. I'm confident management will deliver. Ultimately, they must.
I wish everyone a relaxing, enjoyable Christmas and a much brighter 2025.