Member Info for verdeceleste

this article reads to me as though the writer is far from keen on Sirius - he was probably told to write it - listened to the conference call and dug in the FT files a bit.
describing Sirius as being in business to "persuade farmers to sprinkle it's rock on their fields" is pretty negative stuff

Verde

Myo - re your 8.52

Oil wells do not have a long life - by the time Sirius builds up to 20mtpa perhaps half of of Omimex's wells will be depleted
Fertilizers in South America must look to them like a good way forward on a long term view and Sirius has a 100 year mine
Do these guys have a similar background to CF?
Anyways it looks like a good fit

Verde

Bad news- I didn't sell - I was on holiday with £17k cash in the HL accounts - missed out on £3500 of profit
Good news - it's my birthday I can go drown my sorrows

Verde

this deal is for 30% of a subsidiary of a Texas outfit who are presumably intending to grow rapidly in South America.
Poly4 gives them a USP
looks like a win-win to me

Verde

Mr.dt

The tunneling contract is now sorted and I have no problems with that.
The two points I was intending to get over were

1)There is still a long way to go and all sorts of problems WILL arise - not being clairvoyant we cannot know what they are
maybe less cost over runs but time delays = money - 20mtpa has gone back a couple of years -political risk? ? market
price of MoP in 5/10/years time?? etc
2) The SP will reflect peoples PERCEPTIONS of those risks - not the actual risks

It comes back to DYOR and if someone doesn't like SXX no one is forcing them to be a shareholder

I'm not selling - not for a good long while anyway

Verde

Ok here is a little scenario for those worried about $600m dilution

HMG rats us out and stage 2 only works if 10 billion new shares are issued
expansion to 20 mtpa results in another 4 billion new shares
so we finish up with about 20 billion shares

In 14 years time (NB later than promised) we produce 20mtpa and generate $3+billion pa (see Sept 6th presentation)
What are those shares worth?(with bugger all debt) $30 billion?? That's $1.50 a share - more than 4 times current SP
This is a gain of over 10% pa - not wonderful but better than your cash ISA will be paying

and do you really think it will be that bad?

PATIENCE

Verde

OK have now had a quick trawl through the last fortnights posting and it seems lots of folk are suddenly worried about risk

Woodsmith mine has since the start been VERY risky which is why the shares were 15p just after planning permission (when I came on board). Some of those risks have been quantified - BUT there are still huge risks regarding
Construction
Finance
Sales/pricing

last month those who tried to point out those risks LL Mr.dt etc had scorn poured on them
suddenly former super optimists are worried things are risky

I cannot see that anything has changed in the last year
construction not progressed far enough for the real snags to have shown up
Stage 2 not tied up
TorPs still not in the bag

IMO the only change is some folk's perceptions

If you were happy with SXX last Christmas - keep with it. If not why didn't you sell in January?

Verde

Andy - Halloween will probably be a good time to buy back in - good luck!

potashman

don't forget that when this project started MoP was $500 ton
and that when stage1 financing was agreed it was about $290 ton
the price is only creeping back to earlier levals and who knows what it will be in 4 or 5 years time when we start shipping ?

Verde

Today is St.Leger Day = I could have sold in May at 33p and bought back tomorrow for 16% less
OR
I could have heeded Warren Buffet and put my money in a S&P tracker and made 20% in last 6 months
OR
I could have taken MF's advice sold on Sept 3rd @36p, bought back 3 days later @ 24p and had 50% more shares and a 15% gain since then
BUT NO
went on holiday - no phone or email and 8 hr time difference - came back today to find I've largely missed out on a great buying opportunity

to the pub,,,,,,,,,

Verde

Mr dt

Yes there will be umpteen hiccups in this long and complex project and yes I have full confidence that CF & co will keep delays to as short as possible. The trouble is prospective institutional investors have just seen London Crossrail announce a one year delay just three months before opening - so they are wary of massive delays and over runs in any large infrastructure project. This must make raising money more difficult and depress the SP
IMO

Verde

LL I am pretty well of the same opinion - if it's 20% dilution or less that will be great. If it's 25% or 30% we are still going to do very well out of this investment

Verde

Nojy

LITC is spot on - please do read his post, stop worrying and come back happy in 3 years time :)

Verde

"this is high risk and if it falls flat it takes an overweight amount of cash from the working class"
we know this guy has an agenda but this is utter c**p

someone please send him away and bring MYO back

Verde

The Brazilian currency has been volatile or worse for my entire lifetime - that's why they will price POLY4 in US$
So I am congratulating Scotman on his post for the second time today :)

Verde

Thanks for the post Scotman - nice start to the day

Verde

unless of course you are a VSM

Scotman

when you're in a hole stop digging :)

Verde

Viaticum

The terms of issue of the CBs give the Company the right to convert all the bonds on or after December 19th provided the share price has been over the pre-determined level (expressed in US$} for 20+ of the preceding 30 days - the timing was fixed when the bonds were issued

Verde

whatever happens with Brexit, the political risk in the UK is minute compared to the Congo

I'm keeping my money in Sirius

Verde

where would we be without cut and paste?

Verde