Member Info for verdeceleste

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you are correct in your analysis - but all these things are already factored into the SP - which is why it is lower than it was in 2016 and 2017 - and much lower than it will be in 2023
the good/bad news is that Newcastle will probably be playing Sunderland next year

Verde

Been through both RNS from this morning and I don't see anything new or unexpected
SP is up a tad so this counts as neutral?

Verde

Myo

It looks to me like about half a million tons will do the last bit by road
note that he timing on the granulating plant is also tight - probably why the September 6th RNS talks about 30%
of granulated polyhalite being sold in first year.(as against 95% Poly4 expected later)

Verde

Myo

Yesterday I reran the numbers and IF all goes to plan the cash flow means they will not need all the money. The problem is in the sequence the different money sources are tapped. The cash from HMG backed bonds and whatever form the $600m takes will be spent before the bank "overdraft" is tapped. It looks as the $1500m "bank" money will not be needed - not if all is to plan - but what happens if you build in a year or so delay? and the money men will insist we allow for that delay.
Conclusion - we have to have the extra few hundred million - "just in case"

The good news is that once we get to 13mtpa the cash really flows and 20mtpa looks on for 2028 rather than 2029 - if there are no major delays and if we can sell the stuff

Verde

Myo

After an over indulgent birthday week today seemed like a good time to start a diet. Then I read your 7.54 post and started drooling - about three minutes later I found myself in the kitchen :)

I would say thank you but the politically correct thing is to point out that french toast is bad for your health and eating bacon is morally indefensible

Verde

lovely post Myo - but would we need permission for the spur? and what 's the likely hood of getting it by 2023? Total production before the continuous miners start work in 2023 is less than half a million tons - only 300 train trips - not going to happen good idea as it might be.

Verde

Skier

77 years old
no hope left
where do I collect my euthanasia pill?

Verde

V

Thanks SL I am happy to take £100 from you - it will help with the booze bill:)

Verde

AscotMatt

South Africa seems to have vast areas where they can't grow much plus the government is forcing black ownership - so that probably affects things. There must be a market in SA but Nigeria - where we have a TorP - was probably the better choice

Verde

If you are into agriculture in Africa - DKL is a good company and the shares are cheap at the moment

myo

The Indian billionaire thing was off the top of my head but is quite a possibility. Until recently I had shares in Mytrah Energy which is bringing solar and wind energy to India- the stock exchange never took to it and the rich Indian who owned most of the company took it private in April - into a charitable trust. Could be a similar benefactor looking at food production???

Verde

Myo

It is quite possible that we may have to take on a strategic partner but I am not convinced that we really need one. Sirius is not listed as a mining company - it's in Speciality Chemicals. After the next few years the whole thing is about selling fertilizer. CF has organized things so the big jobs such as shaft boring & MTS tunnel are being done by quality firms.
If any outside help has to come on board it surely has to be on the consumer side.
This gets us to Keytrade, ADM or maybe an Indian billionaire I've never heard of?

Verde

Surely the low target for Africa reflects low usage not only of potassium fertilizers but all fertilizers. They do not have big agri-business there - lots of small farms in the cycle of - no money for fertilizer=soil depletion=low crops=even less money
The current "fix" is to try GM seeds that can cope with bad conditions but this just kicks the problem down the road.
A friend of mine has been working in East Africa for years with an organisation that's trying to educate farmers and help them break the cycle - my impression is this is a very term problem.
Someone at ADM will already be looking at it but Sirius won.t make much money there in my lifetime

Verde

Mr.dt

Surely once we get the SP to 42p the Devil Take the Hindmost 15% clause will result in mass bond conversions?
I'll give you a possible 44p for Easter but never by December

Myo
Given the CF record there's probably something else on the way that none of us has thought of.
If it was me and I was the odd $100 million short I'd still try and place it with a (Canadian?) pension fund

Verde

Thanks LL

if you have an allotment you're kind of forced into being positive :)

Verde

Europe is the main area now with no TorP agreement but it seems that in 2013 there was a sales agreement for 1.75 mtpa
with Keytrade and also a 310 ktpa with a nameless one (see RNS of 18/5/2013)
Are these still valid? Would they preclude a TorP with another party?
Are we trying to convert Keytrade to a TorP?
Do we even need a EuroTorP?

Verde

"they won.t be converting at 30p"

Have I got this wrong? Surely a bond holder who shorted a few weeks ago at 37p or 38p could convert now and deliver his new shares to cover the short - effectively getting 37p for his 25p investment? (plus 8.5% interest)

Verde

SXX

Was McCrum perchance sacked by Citi?

Verde

Oilman

He probably has voice recognition software and never has to touch the keyboard
So we are OK until we are at 20 mtpa
Keep up the good work Myo

Verde

LL

yes that seems a pretty fair summing up
previously I was looking at $2.5 billion debt $500 equity - now looks like $3.0 b and $0.6 b max equity - so just about where we were before all the excitement

Verde

not noticed the half year results yet - they would pad it out nicely

Verde