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CR88 - You may be on to something there.
Because when I posted late last night of:
"Not sure how Monday will turn out as I'm seeing mixed signals",
- I was actually seeing a bearish signal but didn't want to sound down beat straight after the long posts I posted. The pullback is far greater than I expected for the weakish bear signals I'm alluding to.
There is a general guidance rule that runs:
Never buy in the days before a trading update,
- and if going to sell, always sell if only days before a trading update.
So if it's not that natural event, I'm leaning more to your explanation as the drop is beyond what I was expecting for today. IMO.
Hi Stumpy,
Thanks for your views.
Question for you:
- Given that Net Profit came in last year @ $1.46m
- May I now ask, to meet the definition of Exponential, what you would expect this year's Net Profit (based on L/year's £1.46m) to come in at, to simply meet that criteria and no more? Thank you.
I am not asking for a forecast, no way (that's my job LOL! :) :)
I would just like to hear what you would expect for $1.46m to increase to, and achieve by this year-end to be classed as simply meeting an exponetial rise, that's all, and no more.
Yes, I'm pretty sure what your answer will be - but need to hear it from the horse's mouth so to speak :)
I will then offer my forecast for the 6 months Net Profit just completed, and compare to your reply, when the update is revealed later this week.
If this post sounds in any way offensive I apologise in advance. I am NOT calling you out. (I am calling out Watchman though) But your answer will help show that this year's Net Profit has already gone exponential by the 6 month point, well before the year end.
Archy 147 - In your haste you've unwittingly stumbled into a WEEKLY forecasting thread. You compare my weekly offerings against 25 year lows. Pointless post by you.
Clearly you are a superior investor so why not join us in the weekly competition? Then all you have to do is just beat me every week as it's clear you will win every single week anyway. Should be easy for you.
But will you accept the challenge or stay on the sidelines channelling your inner Homer Simpson?
""Hope this helps " :)
Thanks to all for the feedback acknowledgment. Appreciated.
Not sure how Monday will turn out as I'm seeing mixed signals. Was expecting no matter what - the trading update would set it all on a bullish path proper.
But can't find anything decisive on the company's website.
Last year it came out the equivalent, to next week.
The website only gives out an indeterminate :
" 3rd January (00.00am GMT) to mid-January (Q2 Trading Update) "
Well the 3rd has come and gone which narrows it down to the end of next week at the latest.
Has anyone heard or read anything of a more definitive date?
Hi Roofer and Happy New Year to you.
Well, what a change in circumstances! Come back and what do I find with the SP? Only the possibility that the floor may be in.
I found the SP stood in a corner, with it’s head bowed looking non-plussed as some fair-haired guy with a ****ney accent, rails at the SP with:
- What the hell happened? You were only supposed to blow the blaady doors off !!!”
And that’s exactly what happened to the SP whilst I’ve been away. Not only did I lose the comp, the SP stormed through my spreadsheet all the way up to the exceptional circumstances level and at the very last upper-level digit - plonked itself there - way, way up, where I wasn’t looking.
Has a CEO been appointed?
Did the BOD find a hoard of cash behind the sofa in Reid’s office, enough to pay off all the net debts?
My portfolio did very well indeed last week, all the ****e in it shone like brightly polished turds - loadsamoney! :)
Suddenly I wanna keep them. Cusp of a new bull market?
2 of VOD’s short term trends have turned bullish too! It’s all happening for VOD.
Just seeing if the Intermediate trend turns bullish too, because if it does - that’s it! I’ll be all in. Hard to lose once the Intermediate trend converts to bullish. Looking like a few more weeks yet for it.
So I’m thinking 92 or/but maybe 93. Hmm. . .
Dangerous as could be a false positive without that Intermediate trend on side.
Think I’ll compromise and again avoid the top tier - lightening can’t strike twice can it?
So back down to the middle it is. Yes. Decided. 92.5p please Roofer.
PS. Top tier for this week is giving off 97/98 area.
————-
Nope. Stop it! 92.5 please Roofer. Defo. Yep.
Decided.
No more dithering.
Quick before I change my mind - 92.5 please!
. . Or maybe . . . hmmm
( Part 2 > CONCLUDES)
. . . Okay, if unconvinced let’s look at the Net Profit as one of the main complaints laid against Dark is that its margins are too small and thus net profit is less than the market expects. The history to date shows losses after losses so it’s early days for any net profits but they are giving every indication of matching revenue’s explosive increase year on year etc., going forward from now on (IMO see below).
It’s the future years' forecasts that impress; take a look - (all the figures made available to me) - got no forecasts beyond 2024; but I expect the company to issue 2025 guidance after the half year, big March H1 update in full.
NET PROFIT:
June 2018 = $42.5m X LOSS !
2019 = $34.7m X LOSS !
2020 = $28.7m X LOSS !
2021 = $146m X LOSS ! !
2022 = $1.46m Net Profit - Yay! - At long last!
Last year a flash in the pan, for Net profit - after all it is tiny isn’t?
Here are the future market expectations based on company guidance -
NET PROFIT:
2023 = $28.1m
2024 = $47.4m ! ! !
If the trading update confirms all in line to achieve guidance what do you think 2025 forecasts will be for? This company is growing exponentially!
The P/E ratio given for 2024 has been dropped to 53 !
With the PEG ratio given as 0.617
- beat that derampers! - Beat that!
Only one thing.
It all - all of it - hangs on the trading update next week reassuring the market all is on track to achieve all current guidance, with no excuses etc.,
Well, will it?
Just days to go to find out. . . .
:)
Page (1 of 2)
The journey by Dark, financially, has been one of the typical growth start-up
- years and years of growing losses before finally reaching the break-even point (last year) - and the start of the profitable years.
It’s unfortunate that individuals associated with the company (but not employees directly) became embroiled in potential criminal/fraud accusations as it dragged the company through the mire and perhaps the drop in sentiment that ensued caused the SP to crater way below fair value and linger there.
I believe this coming week’s pre-trading H1 update (scheduled for early March) may well put an end to all that once the wider market gains sight of the upcoming trading performance. Nothing in RNS’s so far contradicts that. On the contrary, it’s entirely possible the update could be a ‘beat’ and outperform the guidance, and thus almost as near as guaranteeing a turnaround in the SP’s fortunes. It’s important all are on the same page though as some spurious posts of Dark being “massively overvalued” are circulating on this forum. Those are complete hokum! And hopefully, this post will clearly show, why that is so.
First a quick cheat-sheet update on the financial history of Dark for the past couple of years -
REVENUE:
June 2018 = $79.4m
2019 = $137m
2020 = $199m
2021 = $285m
2022 = $415m
Notice anything?
Where was the crisis that destroyed Dark?
Because as far as I can see that’s one helluva growth record - straight through Covid and ‘the crisis’.
The company launched in April ‘21 @ 250p; the company’s revenue has exploded upwards since that date.
So what’s the market guidance expectations for this current year ending June 2023? - I have those to hand (data subscription package) See for yourself -
REVENUE:
2023 = $555m !
Half a billion! - destined in a few months to be halfway there then, Squadra :)
And 2024?
= $706m ! ! !
Holy moley, on its way to almost three-quarters of a billion commencing from next calendar year!
- Can you see why Squadra is (quite rightly) calling for a billion-dollar turnover in revenue in the next few years? The revenue is forecast to grow exponentially at such a rate that it may achieve $1b before either dates suggested by Squadra or myself :)
But the market has been uninterested.
This week’s broad, but not detailed, trading update will in all probability change market sentiment -or maybe not, What do you think?
Okay, if unconvinced let’s look at the Net Profit as one of the main complaints laid against Dark is that its margins are too small and thus net profit is less than the market expects. The history to date shows losses after losses so it’s early days for any net profits but they are giving every indication of matching revenue’s explosive increase year on year etc., going forward from now on (IMO see below).
It’s the future years' forecasts that impress; take a look -
CONTINUES > > >
“ A loss of 140 M became a profit 5 M in one year too. “
——————————
Two mild points Squadra (hope you don't mind) -
First, I go along with what you’ve posted, but not keen on you posting the pre-tax profit as
- ‘Profit’.
Net Profit L/year was actually $1.46m
That $5.31m you label ‘profit’ is before taxes were deducted. That’s why I’m not keen on media analysts' fondness for pre-tax profit. A lot gets whisked away by the tax man. The company never gets to keep the full amount - only the Net Profit.
And from our PI’s interests/perspective, I believe it’s in our interests to focus more on the Net Profit - the folding stuff the company actually gets to keep.
For shorthand on forums, I concentrate on what comes in the front door - Revenue
- and after everybody with their hand out has been paid off, what is actually left at the back door
- Net Profit (no more deductions).
The reason I highlight that, is that the guidance for this current year is for a very commendable Net Profit of $28.1m and the increase from $1.46 up to $28.1m is staggering. (Wait until you see the 2024 guidance in the next post! :)
$5m pre-tax profit kind of steals the thunder of the achievement away from the company when compared to the current year forecasts. I don’t possess the pre-tax profit for the current year’s guidance, but it will of course be considerably higher than the Net Profit. So if your preference is for pre-tax metrics you’d have to use all pre-tax metrics throughout for comparison purposes.
The second point is the expectation for revenue of over $1b.
I agree that’s a probability on the horizon but not in 2 or 3 years but a little longer. However, I will post my findings in a separate post to this, to keep this post becoming unwieldy, so others can see how both you and I believe that $1b Revenue is achievable in the v near-coming years should next week’s pre-trading update broadly confirm all is still on track to that end.
Oh, seperately to the above, that historic out of date 1000 P/E ratio that the deramper focused on?
It’s currently down to 91.7 - if next week’s update confirms all on track
- (2024 will bring the P/E ratio multiple down even further to P/E 53 !
But only if the update confirms market guidance remains in line with guidance.
Next post (later this evening) on some balance sheet figures to share on the journey so far - and to come, financially - in case others are interested too, ahead of the pre-trading update later this week.
Yeah. I like that - send our refuse/nuclear waste in disposable space-ship-wagons strraight into the sun!
Wouldn't be long before scientists could prove - on the principle that nothing ever vanishes - it just converts from one energy source into another, that after centuries of dumping our waste into the sun's inferno, the resultant new gases foreign to those emitted by the sun have not disappeared, but are infecting the sun's radiation with the new gases, which means in another hundred years or so after that, just one day's sun radiation will stunt all vegetation growth on earth and make humans grow three ears.
(Previous calculations that it would make male humans grow three willies have been shown to be scaremongering as the latest research clearly demonstrates that the maximum number of willies that could be grown, would be no more than two - a big one and a little one).
Think I saw that article when I was in the supermarket the other week. Is the photocopy of the front page of a newspaper?
I usually just skim the supermarket front page headlines only stood a few feet away without touching, so think it was one of the national dailies otherwise it was one of the countless cookie trackers on my phone that plague me with yet more of what I was previously looking at.
But I have seen it.
Also, a variety of sources have been claiming similar for the past year - but this news report comes from respected research agencies.
All a bit like the Ponzi scheme for carbon credits which allows polluters like VW to continue as before by investing in Brazillian/African forests (tax free too) and legally claim to be reducing their carbon footprint - which they most definitely have not!!!
Politicians eh?!?
And also similar to the methodology of the incineration of household refuse.
(Council Incineration of household waste emits more toxicity into the atmosphere than previous landfill procedures; but the argument goes that over 20 or 50 years cumulatively, landfill refuse releases more slowly escaping toxicity into the atmosphere than incineration.
But my point is, on a year-by-year basis, countries that engage in incineration release MORE toxicity into the atmosphere than year-by-year landfill. Both are not ideal. So unless we can get rockets to Mars and dump it there, I don't have an answer to the incineration issue.
Can't believe there's only 2 posters who have spotted the mad-dog deramper in your midst, and worse humour him by using up air wasting the forum on another stock to run down Dark!
(The other stock under-performs Dark on several important metrics).
That same poster is also deramping Dark by using it as an example of a poor stock on another forum too! When he's not patronising posters on here, he's posting false/misleading data on Dark. All of which can be refuted. 1,000+P/E my Rrrsss!!! That's past history!!!
But that's the job of a deramper - to engage others and steal the spotlight away from Dark and depress holders further.
Thank goodness that early March is the half year H1 publication date and should give a clearer, more TRUTHFUL picture.
Hi SheffO,
Short answer is:
No - sorry, I don’t have a year-end estimate for the SP.
In fact, I don’t think anyone does, for any stock.
I did try once (with SLP) and the cyclical/ (or seasonality as it’s known) proved elusive, producing disastrous results. I do though favour one of the free scan sites offerings of it forecasting 125 for the year-end (it was either VectorVest or Wallet Investor - Simply Wall Street is yet several £££’s higher @ £3+ based on discounted cash-flow with the increased interest rates reducing it from an even higher level) - others forecast 250-ish.
But they’re all 50/50 hit and miss estimates/guesses.
Was going to offer an apology for even offering estimated prices for this Jan & Feb - even if they do come in on target. The only use they are, is as additional aids to other metrics that are in alignment with the cyclical behaviour that I’m claiming Jan & Feb possess for SLP.
What I should have posted for Jan & Feb is that it’s my opinion that: Jan will deliver a bullish performance signalling the long-term downtrend is no more, with February delivering an even greater bullish performance than January delivers.
If the long-term trend remains bullish then I believe the year will end higher than you see right now. In the US there’s a saying: However goes January - so goes the year :)
All is on track to attain targets. And at a pleasant close of 105 for the week.
That’s only a 2.5p increase from the month end of December. But it’ll do for Week One - for what I think will be the two biggest gainer month’s of the year (Jan & Feb) :)
Been expecting a temporary small pullback but none have been forthcoming despite a majority of evidence hinting at such.
(Topped-up [103] whilst in a motorway service station on the way back home on Wednesday; my second buy this week, taking me to 4/5th’s of my intended budgeted purchase. So anyone looking for another cheap entry point might have (IMO only) next Monday and Tuesday before the remainder of the week continues the bull run.
I would like to see an out-performance of the SP after next Tuesday up until the 17th/18th because from approx then on, I won’t be surprised of a high probability for quite a disturbing pull-back, lasting all the way up to approx the 28th (hence keeping a further tranche-buy in reserve to complete my purchase).
With a final flourish of the SP in the last few days delivering in line with expectations (inter-month high’s and low’s can and often do, well exceed the month end close).
Above dates are low probabilities and more wishful thinking than anything else. When I keep them to myself and don’t act on them, they occur more often than not. The moment I publicly post them, fate intervenes and tears it all up :)
However, all I’m looking for is a month end close in the range of 110 to 115. February is destined for a huge gain but is very dependent on January’s close. In other words a double digit figure gain above the 100 line by close of January.
All IMO only.
Despite the panic-style shouty out loud upper case letters, that's as old as the hills old news -
They were in the news talking about it in 2019
They were in the news talking about it in 2020
They were in the news talking about it in 20221
They were in the news talking about it in 2022
And they're in the news talking about it now in 2023!
Hardly a bolt out of the bluestory is it?
" ......net here now is no more than $45m "
--------------
Bangrack's posts always worth reading (despite him leaving almost another 50% further capital profit on the table when he sold out the bulk of his holding in the 80p's back in autumn 2020).
But here, he's loving engaging in provocative trolling Lol!
$45m net? Utter baloney!
Try circa $60m net, area.
H1 is out on Feb 23rd. All are best advised to hold net profit forecasts until then, for a clearer picture to emerge.
In fact shortly after that date, I will tell you Bsngrak, what the full year end net is likely to be. Ha!
And from here I can't envisage it being that low.
Unless the H1 (next month) supports 45m it most definitely will be higher. But won't argue the point until the almost at hand H1 is published soon.
Last year the early trading update was on 12th Jan, so I'd expect no earlier than that.
The actual H1 result is not published until sometime early in the first few days of March - but the market will construct that H1 interim result from this trading update that usually comes out before mid January and a market reaction regarding the SP should occur before the H1 is published in March, and again on publication of the H1.