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Morning LT and All,
Historically Cyan have maintained a 25% market share, and if this continues to be the rule of thumb in terms of wins going forward then its quite obvious really, that there was always going to be a 75% failure rate, where 75% of the available market going to be awarded to the competition.
The reasons for this 75% failure rate could well already be baked in, such a s solution required, include costs , as well as other variables.
Therefore, i think we should re examine our expectations and prepare for some surprises because even if we succeed , we could well lose approx. 75% of the available market.
There is also the chance that we could beat our historic average also.
On the back of news that " Wi-SUN FAN Becomes the National Standard for India Smart Meter RF Communication Networks", and Cyan being just one of a few company's in India presently with this certification.
quote
"Phil Beecher, President and CEO of Wi-SUN Alliance. “This recognition is also a huge growth opportunity for member companies based in India, including Cisco, Renesas, Silicon Labs, Texas Instruments, Exegin, and CyanConnode, as well as those looking to expand into the Indian market.”
We have to take it that all others ( especially our competition) will now need to go though a certification process to access BIs / wi-Sun standards certification .
I imagine that could be one reason for a hold up in awards, but just a guess on my part.
On top of that ( which is excellent news for CC, and should have been RNSd) ...JC has now come out with a paper saying that there has been recently a trend of some AMISPS selecting cheaper, possibly inferior technology, at the risk of long term failure of SLA'S, and possibly extra cost.
Which may be the reason they have now aligned BIS and WI-SUN- so every device is aligned in future.
I think JC should have just concentrated on the excellent news about how Wi-SUN FAN is now the new BIS industry standard, Cyan is involved, and is now adopted by Bureau of Indian Standards which will move everyone involved in the 250 m smart meter rollout AND the development of Smart city's in India under the same umbrella.
"[India Smart Grid Forum] ISGF has been closely associated with Wi-SUN Alliance for over a decade and we complement the ground breaking work done by Phill Beecher and his team at Wi-SUN over the years. Wi-SUN’s field area network (FAN) standard has emerged as the global standard which is adopted by IEEE as IEEE 2857 and by Bureau of Indian Standards as IS:18010(Part4/Sec1). This is a great achievement and in India we should ideally make it mandatory for all smart metering and smart city applications which will ensure interoperability between different systems and reduce total cost of ownership of all applications” said Reji Pillai, President (ISGF), Chairman, Global Smart Energy Federation (GSEF)"
Morning LT and Thanks.
It seems to me we may be held in a trading range until we get trading range breaking news. So if you cant beat them - join them seems to be the order of the day. GL Vas
If you search for "India's Smart Metering Landscape" docs.....only two come up.
The first one is the recent one from JC, but interestingly this same article wording is shared on all Linkedin platforms ,BUT the Indian Linkedin is the only one that starts with a different introduction .. below....from 3 days ago.
"Revisiting the critical conversation on hashtag#India's smart metering landscape through our Chairman John Cronin's lens. The article underscores the vital decision-making behind technology selection and shines a light on the imperative of prioritizing quality and long-term viability for short-term gain, ....."
https://www.linkedin.com/company/cyanconnode-india/posts/?feedView=all
The other all start with "In India's ambitious journey towards revolutionizing its energy sector, particularly .."
It looks like horse for courses and have not checked the exact wording in each is the same ..
The other search that comes up is a discussion document by Mayer / Brown last sept 23 entitled
"THE SMART METERING LANDSCAPE IN INDIA"
https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2023/08/the-smart-metering-landscape-in-india
Morning All,
It seems tome that at present Cyan's offering is meeting two very significant standards that maybe, most other are not at this time - namely
Just a week ago the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) adopted Wi-SUN Alliance FAN (Field Area Networks) specification as included in IEEE 2857-2021, as the national standard for India’s Smart Meter RF Communication Networks...."Proprietary solutions don’t fit the BIS requirements, making Wi-SUN the logical choice for long-term operations and maintenance".
Also, Cyan's collaboration with Silicon Laboratories integrating into their SiLabs' FG25 Sub-GHz Wireless chip where the company stated
"The open-source backbone of Wi-SUN will enable CyanConnode to quickly scale deployments and leverage the Wi-SUN ecosystem to provide new value to its customers. CyanConnode's adoption of SiLabs' flagship SoC and Wi-SUN will ensure that it is the first to meet the technical requirement set by the Government of India as defined by BIS LITD28 standards for Smart Meter RF Communication systems. "note: first to meet the technical requirements defined by BIS.
They also stated that "CyanConnode's adoption of SiLabs' flagship SoC and Wi-SUN will ensure that it continues to meet the Service Level Agreements (SLAs) required by the Government of India."
It looks to me like the standards are being tightened, and yes the inevitable cost / performance will come into play, but IMO i think JC was trying to differentiate Cyan present day experience / offering with its competitors, and even on a level playing ground , Cyan has the advantage of many years real life experience in installing and monitoring millions of meters within the SLA, which is money saved over long term .
I also find it hard to believe that with news presently scarce , yet expected anytime , JC thought it a good idea to put out a piece which was intended to be negative, as we are a listed company and the only people who actually read these reports are industry workers, people who cant sleep, competitors, and his share holders.
"CyanConnode and the FG25 Sub-GHz SoC are Ready to Take on India’s Smart Metering Challenge"
https://www.silabs.com/applications/case-studies/leveraging-fg25-and-wi-sun-for-smart-metering-in-india
Hi Mcgoof,
Regarding Genus and Cyan and the radio silence . I think the paragraph used in the Hardman note in March 23 was ..
"The flow of contract awards is creating an imperative to scale the business. Alongside
the existing supply chain in India (Syrma), Genus will be producing modules on a thirdparty basis for its own meter requirements for the August 2022 order, and potentially beyond"
So today Genus can manufacture cyan's modules, for their own meters, not a big ask to be able to manufacture same modules for others also.
It could be argued that the radio silence from Genus is no different than from the radio silence from Cyans other partners, or the lack of news regarding other competitive company's and sub contractors at present.
IMO the next bit of news we will hear from Genus is either another award to Cyan or an award to one of Cyan's competitors but up until today, we have had no news on ether.
The only news we have been able to find has been, awards to AMISP , large manufacturers or a direct RNS from Cyan.
The next award from Genus could be either to another company, a repeat of the first one made to Cyan , where the terms and conditions remain the same or a new contract where Genus are allowed to manufacture Cyan modules for another party or AMISP .
But until there is direct order from Genus, we are not likely to hear anything from them, or from Cyan in regard to this .
As they say the silence is deafening , but at least we know the silence is across the board and applies to all small subcontractors and importantly we know there are some very s serious contracts sitting behind the silence.
On another note I think last weeks news regarding Wi-Sun in India was Important.
"BIS Adopts Wi-SUN FAN spec for India’s Smart Meter RF Networks", .
WI-SUNs very close relationship with Silicon Labs, along with Cyan's involvement with Silicon Labs new FG25 module, these are all compelling reasons for Genus to stay with Cyan, surely. It really does come across as what India and others need in their meters, and in smart city generally.
Quote Phil Beecher, President and CEO of Wi-SUN Alliance.
"The adoption of Wi-SUN Alliance wireless communications specification, incorporated in IEEE 2857, as a standard for India by the BIS is a clear signal that the National Standards Body recognises the role that wireless mesh technology will play in driving the growth of smart cities in India and the rapid rollout of smart meter projects over the next few years,” adds Phil Beecher, President and CEO of Wi-SUN Alliance. “This recognition is also a huge growth opportunity for member companies based in India, including Cisco, Renesas, Silicon Labs, Texas Instruments, Exegin, and CyanConnode, as well as those looking to expand into the Indian market.”
Thanks for the update LT.
Brisk Pace: Significant progress in smart meter deployments by Powerline
https://powerline.net.in/2024/03/10/brisk-pace-significant-progress-in-smart-meter-deployments/
Genus Power Infrastructures incorporates wholly-owned subsidiaries
Genus Power Infrastructures Ltd. | Engineering - Industrial Equipments | Capital Goods & Industrial Consumables | BSE: 530343 | NSE: GENUSPOWER
07 Mar 2024
Genus Power Infrastructures (GPIL) has incorporated three wholly-owned subsidiaries, namely ‘Genus Smart Metering’, ‘Genus Metering Infra’ and ‘Genus Advance Metering’ on March 06, 2024. The said wholly-owned subsidiaries are incorporated as special purpose vehicle (SPV) for execution of Advanced Metering Infrastructure Service Provider (AMISP) Contract.
Genus Power Infrastructures (GPIL) is engaged in the manufacture and distribution of electronic energy meters, power distribution management projects, hybrid microcircuits, inverters, batteries, home UPS and online UPS in India and abroad.
https://www.moneyworks4me.com/company/news/index/id/640563
Evening LT
Its the award from AMISP to subcontractor that seems to start the 27 month clock ticking, so this part of the process will need to be managed very well, ensuring manufacturing capacity can be met, supply and installation etc for each individual award before its given to the subcontractor - as once the award is given to subcontractor the 27 month clock starts ticking down .
The same if its a Framework agreement I guess, as they draw down orders off a framework agreement , this can only go as fast as manufacturing and installations allow otherwise they again risk not completing in the 27 months .
So at anyone time , stage of this rollout their is an inherent limit to what can be manufactured, installed etc and as time progresses the manufacturing base, installation workforce will expand to double, quadruple the numbers that can be awarded - and ensure they can be met and installed in 27 months.
Very early days still, Cheers GL Vas
In other words there is no advantage in an AMISP giving Cyan an award of say 5 million meters in one go, unless they can be guaranteed to be delivered and implemented within the 27 month installation period....this way will only lead to failure, trigger penalties, bad for reputation.
Most of the awards made to Cyan ( who is a subcontractor) have the stipulation that the award will be installed within 27 months - so i imagine that is 27 months from the date Cyan or a subcontractor receive the award form the AMISP.
The AMISP that won the original award and goes on to give the subcontractor an award is probably not under a tight time scale as a) they only give out smaller portions of the overall award b) There may well be problems in over ordering , if the AMISPS gave out to larger orders at this stage ...with manufacturing not keeping pace and the development of a drag on parts - which would delay subcontractors timelines and make it more likely they miss deadlines, and trigger penalty's.
I'm wondering if this silence on awards to subcontractors form AMISPS has more to do with ensuring relivable manufacturing is in place before to fulfil awards, so to ensure 27 month period installations are achievable. Just a thought.
If so, as manufacturing production increases then awards should also increase to ensure they meet strict timelines. ...Just a thought
Are you not sure its an old quote from 2021/2 .
probably the one that got me all excited.
Hope its not, but best to acknowledge.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/40-community-diagnostic-centres-launching-across-england
Yes, easy to forget that Cyan have been working towards India's rollout for what seems forever, and as long as Cyan can keep to the SLAs targets then i would have thought this would be a massive advantage for Cyan , as there are all types of unwanted penalties initially and throughout the ten year maintenance agreement that the AMISP will want to avoid due to missing the SLAs, faulty meters, and generally poor manufacturing of meters. GL Vas
Afternoon LT,
I know its not the first time that CC have been mentioned alongside some of the giants in smart metering and smart city solutions, but I still find it amazing that such a relatively small company ( in every way possible) such as Cyan, is identified as to be deemed as so relevant as to be worth a mention alongside company's such as Texas and Cisco in a multi billion future smart city market worldwide.
All i can think of is i must still be underestimating the strength of the secret magic sauce that Cyan have developed to support the smart meter and smart city industry as it evolves. GL Vas
Am i correct in thinking that company's in the WI-SYN alliance can be either partners, or competitors at any time. Therefore Cyan could be part of a WI Sun consortium of members, or could be competing against other WI-SUN members for contracts.
Thanks again Gizmo.
BIS adopts Wi-SUN Alliance specification as national standard for India’s smart .
"This recognition is also a huge growth opportunity for member companies based in India, including Cisco, Renesas, Silicon Labs, Texas Instruments, Exegin, and CyanConnode, as well as those looking to expand into the Indian market,” said said Phil Beecher, President and CEO of Wi-SUN Alliance."
https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/telecom-equipment/bis-adopts-wi-sun-alliance-specification-as-national-standard-for-indias-smart-meter-rf-networks/108205943#:~:text=BIS%20adopts%20Wi%2DSUN%20Alliance,meter%20RF%20networks%2C%20ET%20Telecom
"The adoption of Wi-SUN Alliance wireless communications specification, incorporated in IEEE 2857, as a standard for India by the BIS is a clear signal that the National Standards Body recognises the role that wireless mesh technology will play in driving the growth of smart cities in India and the rapid rollout of smart meter projects over the next few years,” added Phil Beecher, President and CEO of Wi-SUN Alliance. "
Excellent find Gizmo.
Should drive more business Cyans way, surely.
This article sums it up nicely.
https://www.techcircle.in/2024/03/04/bis-adopts-open-standard-for-better-security-reliability-in-smart-city-projects
Interesting read, especially as HPL are a manufacturer of meters , a subcontractor and not an AMISP.
https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nse/hpl/earnings-calls/q3-2024