Member Info for Vanilla

Here is the link

https://agiletestservices.com/collections/all

Earlier today I clicked on the agileservices link in a message from this thread and on the website the products tab had the option of selecting a blue circle for a 2 day lateral flow test. It was definitely there as I compared it with the blue circle containing the fit to fly lateral flow test as they were decribed and priced identically. I've just noticed the 2 day lft option has been removed but the fit to fly option is still there.
Looks like once the government reintroduce 2 day lft's it will be back and I assume be the same product as the fit to fly which is currently for sale. If anyone knows which product they are using for this it may well provide some answers.

Not so sure about a money raise as there are still 84m warrants issued at 60p which if exercised will provide significant funds. It will all depend on the machine working at 230MeV which in itself will be a significant event that I imagine will result in a full order book and major publicity. It should not be underestimated what a technical achievement and global showcase this is as nowhere in the world is there a comparable proton machine.
Been a long time waiting since even before the original Chinese order that got cancelled. Ended up with too many shares having bought more when the SP collapsed to lower my average but I would hope that when we finally get the news we are waiting for I'll get my money back plus more. Don't think I'll be selling then though as the journey will only just have begun and I can see this turning into a company with a stable and reliable fixed income based on a substantial future order book that should provide the ability to pay a steady dividend.

That's both cpx and maxwell that have recently brought in new legal representation. I hope it is because they wish to negotiate/conclude a settlement in the January video mediation conference and these new faces specialise in settlement rather than fighting the case to the bitter end.

Great that the company is communicating to shareholders something that was previously missing. Whilst it hasn't yet fed through to the SP it can only be a matter of time before we see fair value here. For whatever reason it looks like we are going to have to wait until we see the numbers in the interim results. As long as they are in line with analysts forecasts there is no reason why the SP shouldn't also increase as per the forecast to 15p and beyond!

Somehow this very good original thread from Barnacle which I have reposted below has been sabotaged and lost it's way. I'm still ok with 15p wouldn't be surprised with 20p and inits 57p would be exceptional. Mention of £5 & £8 though is the stuff of crypto or was it meant as ? of a £ which is probably more realistic.

Barnacles Post:

We all seem to be focusing on the Maxwell case, which if Cap XX won would certainly put rocket boosters under the share price. Hopefully we will know within the next month or so. But even without this potential added bonus, at it's current Share price of 5.40p and a Market Cap of just £28m this is cheap considering where the company is currently heading.

So last year's figures were: Revenue +14% to A$4.1m with Product sales revenue +30% to A$3.5m as the coatings, DMF and
DMT manufacturing assets acquired from Murata came online. Adj. EBITDA loss of A$0.4m reduced A$1.2m and was comfortably better than forecast (ACLe: A$0.6m).

This years Revenue is estimated to be A$6.5m, an increase of over 50%, and next year is estimated to be A$12.6m, nearly double this years Revenue!

Management reports that the closing sales order book was up more than 160% y-o-y with contract announcements across
multiple sectors in CY21.

With the new DMT and DMF production lines up and running and moving towards full capacity of c. 4.8m units per
annum complemented by the existing manufacturing lines in Malaysia and the prospect of the DMH coming online during 2022, (This would add another 2.4m units per annum capacity,) CAP-XX can offer a range of prismatic supercapacitors in volume. Alongside this, the company has a growing cylindrical supercapacitor business.

Cash in the bank should be around £4.8m minus 4 months cash burn : (£0.2m YE21, +£2.6m from the placing in July, + R+D Tax Rebate of£1.6m, +Option Exercise £0.4m) This should be enough to see Cap XX through to profitablity.

"We maintain our DCF valuation of 15p at 13% discount rate with the potential for this to increase significantly as confidence in its path to profitability increases. Our valuation leaves upside from more licensees, including a potential result against Maxwell/Tesla, greater long-term market share than 5%, as well as the potential for greater growth in supercapacitor demand from IOT than assumed based on market forecasts. "

To answer your question Claret I don't worry about Open's comments. He's been on this board a long time as I have so I guess I can understand his negative views having held through many false promises. The Ioxus case was a real shocker in how they have been able to avoid payment but continue to sell products and as I said I don't fully understand what impact if any the sale of Maxwell will have on any awards made as a result of the court case.

Unlike Open though it's time to put the past disappointments behind, look to the future and remain really positive that the Murata equipment acquisition will be the game changer as it puts CPX in control by being in direct contact with customers unlike with licence agreements. The forecasted numbers look to be achievable with all the positive news of growth in IoT and should really reflect in a much higher SP. Then all the other stuff like new licences and court wins will be the icing on the cake but could also provide a substantial upside as highlighted in the analysts report.

I think it is a valid question that Open is asking especially considering what happened with Ioxus. I too was concerned when the sale of Maxwell by Tesla was announced, however since then the case has continued with considerable input from both parties. Maxwell didn't go bust like Ioxus and the case continues against them without any mention of UCAP. I'm not sure whether Maxwell was sold in its entirety to UCAP but whatever the arrangement was there is obviously sufficient left making it worthwhile to continue with the case against them and unlike Ioxus the ability to secure historical debts/claims hasn't disappeared due to the sale of the business which was conducted as a going concern not as a bankruptcy.

Couldn't agree more even a SP of 15p is cheap with what is known to be just around the corner. If any unexpected news drops then the upside really could take off. I know in the past there have been a few disappointments and missed opportunities but within the next couple of months it could at last all change for the better. There's a few LTH's here that will be pleased.

Perhaps the new chap has been brought in for the video mediation conference on the 12th Jan to agree a settlement with the best outcome possible. That would seem preferable to paying for his services all the way up to the jury trial.

That is true Wobble and what a bonus we'd have if the reddit community got in here but even without that this should move up higher when the interim results are issued.
Hopefully even the mysterious workings of AIM won't stop this achieving a fair valuation of around 15p. If social media gets involved then the 57p Init prediction may even happen.

Based on the company achieving its sales forecasts with the new production lines the analysts value the shares at 15p with further upside a real possibility.

We'll find out how this is progressing during Q1 and I expect good news so 15 to 20p will do nicely for me and anymore will be a massive bonus.

Well Open as a lth here I can understand your criticisms of the company and of AK. I really think there will be quite a few disgruntled investors by the end of Q1 next year if this SP hasn't improved by then. I'll certainly be one of them as to date being a loyal lth hasn't rewarded as much as playing the trading game having missed the opportunity to off load at 18p and 14p.

We've been led to believe all is progressing as expected and orders are increasing significantly so finally it's time to deliver and the analysts forecast of 15p should easily be achieved if they just do what they have stated.

You're not alone there as I doubt anyone here know what these updates actually mean. It does however look like the case is continuing and because of that my guess is that the result of the Markman Hearing was positive for cpx as otherwise I'm not sure they would drag this out further with all the additional expense. If that is correct it would seem sensible for Maxwell to provide information to try and reduce the amount of damages they end up paying. Hopefully they're moving towards an amicable settlement as soon as possible and maybe the January video mediation along with next weeks dispute conference will be sufficient to sort out their differences.

In addition if the order book is continuing to grow the half year results should show a healthy increase in sales. That is the time for me as a lth to reassess things and if we're still sitting at a SP anywhere near 5p I'm going to morph into Open!

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. There has been a Markman Hearing where the judge would of ruled in favour of one side. Unless new evidence is provided for the 15th November discovery dispute there will be no reason to change this decision which is probably why the court may and can decide before the discovery dispute conference. If no agreement is reached I'd imagine the January video mediation is the next attempt to try and get the two sides to seek an agreement. Failing that it will go to jury trial with all the associated expense and further delays. Fingers crossed we get a settlement soon with a good outcome.

That's still taking place TD but I believe the video mediation has the intended purpose to resolve the dispute and reach a settlement so that a jury court hearing can be avoided.

I think Open may be right about the share price. It doesn't look like we will hear about the Markman Hearing so the video mediation in January next year is probably the next significant event in the court case that could result in a settlement.
Then we have the interim results around Feb/Mar which should make good reading if the current trend in orders continues.
I was initially of the opinion that by the end of this year we would see SP gains but unless there is significant news it may well be a little longer towards the end of Q1 next calendar year.
Just going to have to hold on and remain patient a little longer.................as ever!

JH if you mean Ioxus, having just had a look through the history of that case it looks like it continued for nearly 6 months after the Markman Hearing until Ioxus defaulted and then the court made an award in favour of cpx without the need for a jury trial. I guess Ioxus were in the process of going bust so gave up defending knowing they'd have no funds to pay anyway.

Interestingly the ioxus case history doesn't mention the outcome of the Markman Hearing so I'm not sure what we'll hear in this case. If no news is issued and the SP starts rising I think we can assume the privileged few have been informed. Maybe the mediation conference will be the mechanism to achieve a settlement.

Regarding the Markman Hearing I do not know if and how the outcome will be communicated. Hopefully it goes favourably for cpx, if it does there is also a video mediation conference set for 12th Jan 22 which is probably when a settlement will be achieved. How the SP reacts will depend on how much information is released to the public unless of course as usual the privileged few find out first to react accordingly.

Markman Hearing 2nd November the outcome of which will have a very important bearing on this case as I see no reason why a jury would overturn the decision of a qualified judge