Member Info for Vanilla

Having just read the recent update more carefully it does actually infer Q3 in the paragraph below which seems fair enough. September at the latest earlier will be a bonus and a surprise!

The Company aims to provide these data over the second quarter of 2022, following which it can then proceed to finalise the integration of the remaining high energy accelerating modules and then reach the 230 MeV milestone by this summer.

Unfortunately I too have held all through that period. Trying to remain positive and optimistic however the summer timescale is a real concern and doesn't bode well at this late stage. Are they hoping for Q2 but might be Q3 so rather than disappoint with a Q3 statement use summer who knows. The othe issue is that whilst we hear these placings are done at a premium to current SP they always come with sack fulls of warrants. I wouldn't mind being offered some every time I took part in a placing. Let's hope they finally get it sorted and all LTH's patience is deservedly rewarded at long last.

Not sure we have been given answers to all those questions however it appears that the equipment has to go through a careful and somewhat time consuming conditoning process. They are carrying out validation in a stepped process all the way up to 230MeV so at that point all tests/verifications will have been completed and following submission of the final documentation modules be signed off by UK & US regulators for use on humans. Patient treatment will then be carried out at Daresbury whether this is also part of the approval process I'm not sure but at some point after this stage Harley Street will be installed and additional orders will be secured, perhaps at the 230MeV stage or maybe customers will wait until patient treatment is carried out and shown to be working as expected.
I'm sure the future manufacturing and installation process will be more streamlined but as long as the order book is full we'll all be happy.
There is still a way to go but the 230MeV milestone will be key as at that point so much testing will have been carried out that patient outcomes will hopefully be as expected and so much better than anything else out there in the market.

There is no doubting the frustrations of these delays but at least we have been told there are only the final 4 CCL modules to be conditioned due in mid April then integrated into a completed machine that will be operating at 230MeV this summer. I don't particularly like the use of summer as a timescale which I believe is misleading as it gives an impression of July / August but infact could mean the end of October. Unfortunately this has probably been deliberately used which could mean internally the expectation is the latter. I still believe a machine operating at 230MeV will be a significant turning point for the SP and if it comes before October I'll view that as a bonus.

I guess that's why the pipeline is 50m, there are probably several areas of technology that out of the blue could be blockbusters for cpx. Even without them the business appears to be on a solid path of growth. Just have to keep holding and as ever remain patient.

Thank you open and I understand much of your viewpoint. It's hard to be philosophical and unfair to be hard on your decisions with the benefit of hindsight. You would have to of been very fortunate, extremely clever or in a secret club to have traded this with perfect timing. It was once said by a famous lady Prime Minister that you can't buck the market. She obviously never invested in AIM shares but taking that message on board if cpx deliver on the numbers as much as AIM appears to prevent it the SP will always at some point catch up and after the event it is easy to look back and say that was on the cards wish I put some money in. What seems to keep PI's holding here is the prospect of next years profit, AVX paying up and winning and being paid in the Maxwell Court case. There is a reasonable chance of a huge life changing bonus and after all these years holding this you don't want to miss out. It seems to drag on forever and I keep on extending my timescales but it is now looking like end of this calendar year to reassess. Even without the bonus 15p fair valuation is not a bad outcome so I am happy to continue to hold.

This is how AIM works SP's get hammered on bad news and do little on news of progress. Spikes appear from nowhere then slowly erode. Occasionally a rocket arrives without ever a PI on board and those that are mostly jump off too soon.
It's either stay on board for a rocket and suffer the ups and downs until it takes off or trade until then and risk missing the unexpected launch. Like many here I've been holding for the rocket and it is painful to retrace the missed opportunities but that is the choice you make and have to accept. It would as frustrating to have sold and see this rise to 57p as predicted by Init. Inspite of AIM cpx is making good progress and is a million miles away from some of the high risk gambles in this market. At some point the progress made in sales/profit will be fairly reflected in the SP.

The scepticism is understandable and I too have been invested here for many years and have witnessed all those potential huge opportunities disappear into thin air. Then the Ioxus debacle seemed to rub salt into the wounds - not blaming cpx here.
It has been said the murata deal will allow cpx to become successful in spite of itself which may well be true however this deal really is transformational and seems to have coincided with a rapidly developing and growing IoT sector that is perfectly aligned to make use of cpx's unique strength with their prizmacap range of products where they have little if any competition. It looks like profitable growth is in sight with this deal alone and then we have the Maxwell court case and the possibility of a huge mobile or automobile deal that would probably come out of the blue considering the confidentiality clauses involved. I don't think we'll get any rockets at this stage but steady positive progress will do for now as long as the SP follows suit.

My expectation is as per the broker forecast which is for profit next year. As long as this years numbers are inline with the broker forecast we are moving in the right direction and prematurely talking about profit ahead of expectation may only result in perceived disappointment. The forecast numbers are good and the market should be happy to achieve these and the SP will in time move with the numbers anything over and above and a potential court case win against maxwell will see a bonus to the SP

If we hear in July that AVA6000 is working as well as expected will we see the complete opposite SP reaction to SNG. I believe that would see the SP at around £4 to £5 but I doubt that would happen somehow and at the very least you would think the £1.20 price of the last placing would be easily achieved.

On the 31st Aug 21 there were 20.4m 25p warrants outstanding which expire in July 22 of which 4.4m have since been exercised. Not sure why you would exercise over 3m before the expected news by the end of March and I guess with a further 16m outstanding at 25p there will have to be significant demand on the back of good news to absorb these if they are being sold. I'm sure avo would want them to at least be exercised even if not being sold so that they receive around £4m in the process so the pressure is on for validation at 230MeV.

The 400k deal was with spire who subsequently moved into the health market having previously targeted their products in leisure which didn't take off as expected resulting in no follow on order. They have since made significant progress in the health sector with a recent announcement by cpx of a new agreement so maybe after all this time they will contribute positively to the numbers. With all the recent deals announced there is hopefully enough irons in the fire for some to succeed at a level sufficient for cpx to achieve the forecast sales. Everactive, epishine and epeas could be a massive market in IoT we'll just have to wait for the results to see what is going on although announcing a multi million £ deal with a mobile phone company would be welcome news.

Not dishonest at all but in sales if you commit to deals and don't deliver the outcome can be unpleasant and any experienced business person will know how even the most sure fire deals can go wrong so extreme care must be taken with what is communicated especially when your b@lls are on the line.

Agreed Luke but some of AS's unnecessary comments influenced investors decisions and you could argue misled them. So whilst I agree about your research led investment decisions I'm not sure the SP would of been as volatile without AS's comments. Anyhow none of this changes the opportunity with Precision which if successful the SP will look after itself it's just that the handling of the lfd opportunity has invited the trouble makers here. On that point be aware of TW whilst he may get some calls correct he really doesn't know his facts and just jumps on the bandwagon for the ride.

With the damage to his reputation from all the bullish claims about Affidx deals that haven't materialised it's no surprise he is keeping things closer to his chest so as not to discredit and damage the prospects of Precision. He's put himself in a no win situation, keep quiet or broadcast great news that might not be believed both are harmful to the value of AVA6000 as is currently happening with the falling SP. Shame he wasn't this cautious with his lfd claims then we may have had a less volatile ride. I think the process of releasing news will now go through a far more rigorous approval process but eventually when it does arrive at least the SP will be in a better place and hopefully more stable.

If the results are in-line with broker forecasts then the 15p broker valuation would be a fair price. Unfortunately AIM is anything but fair so I'm not going to be concerned about the unexplainable SP correlation to news and if the results are good I'll wait as long as it takes for the SP to get to where it should be. It is strange that good news is expected and the market is supposed to be forwards looking yet the SP doesn't reflect this so there may well be a subdued reaction but I'll go with 8p.

Some mixed views here on the chances of success by the end of Q1 and a sense of nervous anticipation as we've come full circle to that stage again with potential deals in the form of LOI dependent on a soon to be completed machine.
During this time there have been some significant investments from new and existing shareholders and also the major cost of developing Harley St.
It seems many like me have been here since the cancelled Chinese orders which resulted quite rightly in total mistrust in the board. The lies and withholding of information back then seem unbelievable and it is unthinkable that would be repeated at this stage. So it's not a write off just yet but the next 8 weeks could feel painfully slow in waiting for news. Having also invested significantly more as the price dropped to lower my average which still sits at a loss I'm eagerly waiting news that this machine just bloody works at 230MeV. All that comes after in the form of trials and regulatory approvals for use on real patients which will be needed before Harley St is up and running will feel like a walk in the park after all these years.
If that news arrives I'm still of the opinion it will unlock several commercial opportunities and result in a significant increase in the SP ahead of Harley St being operational but we will see and fingers crossed for a different outcome this time round.

Of course a more concerning reason could be that these companies have successfully avoided any claims for IP infringement hopefully we'll get some answers soon so all the guesswork can be laid to rest

It looks like they are trying to obtain confidential commercial information about these deals that I can only imagine is to allow them to agree to a licensing deal/settlement that is fair and inline with other agreements so in effect they are not punished for all the years of lack of payment. I don't think a jury would be lenient in determining a suitable fine if the case is found in favour of cpx so maybe this is maxwell's best option at this stage.

By the way I have been invested here for nearly 2yrs now never sold a share but if I somehow had been fortunate enough to have sold the lot at it's peak of around £2.80 for a substantial amount of cash and AS ask me to put it all back in, based on his past performance I would only do so with some real hard factual news. I'm an amateur and if I think like that you can imagine what professional investors will want to see who won't be as easily parted with their cash. Having just wrote the above can't believe I didn't take my own advice, oh well hindsight and all that but it may well pay in the long run.