Member Info for ValueS

"W⚓"

A new one for me, made me laugh!🤥

197,984 shares bought back at an average £2.3779 per share.

More like someone's head, blame the whisky🥃?

As at 16:00, around 7.9 shares sold for every 1 bought by the rest of the world whence the buyback stripped out. Yesterday, it was more like 3 to 1. If this continues the SP may give up its recent gains ☹️.

Best Regards ValueS

"Not sure we'll see that price again for a while, but who knows."

Well, sellers are having a field day, selling above 230. As at 16:00,

HBR is still in the phase of digesting it's acquisition of WD, and developing the assets that come with it. It is going to require some time, perhaps another 4 or more years to get to mature state of development. All we can do for the time being and collect the dividend.

Patience and discipline are required here, both of which are free! Fortunately!

Best Regards ValueS

Despite increased debt by $400 m (eq. to 21.542 p/share) and Brent down to $63.6, while results largely as expected. The SP is up by c. 0.6% as I type, showing resilience. The market is giving HBR the thumbs up 👍.

Best Regards ValueS

"I assume the broker cannot be an insider or is that not the case?"

I don't really know, but remember even the company the shares belong to have no control over the price of its own shares even with all the inside information they posses. The market determines that. But they always employ a broker to execute an intended buyback program to insure 'neutral' and 'professional' execution I guess.

Best Regards ValueS

The buyback is supposed to be as 'value accretive' as possible, under current market conditions. This is achieved by insuring the average price is 'lower' than normal within the given period, I.e minimum VWAP. In some companies the buyback is "halted" when the SP is regarded as high. See for example the ongoing buyback by FOXT. The broker completely stopped doing any buying back between 05/08/2025 and 08/09/2025 in anticipation of a more bearish outlook, which indeed turned out to be the case. Also, the broker does not do any buying back in the days when the SP goes high!

Best Regards ValueS

Fair enough, but the potential difference is more than £550 k, which is enough to fund a whole extra session.

Just trying to be more optimistic ...

Best Regards ValueS

"so may not have been crossed yet."

Should be:

so the halfpoint may not ...

"Made it past the halfway point yesterday (just)"

The GBP/USD has been well under 1.34 for some time now. Consequently, the buyback fund would be significantly more than £74 m. If this buyback completes with an average GBP/USD = 1.34, then the fund = £74,626,865.67. Of which, only £37,206,064.18 has been spent. This is 49.856%, so may not have been crossed yet.

Best Regards ValueS

"My question is why are Harbour paying such a high percentage as a dividend compared to most other oilers?"

The level of the dividend is NOT high relative to the FAIR value of the HBR share, which IMO should be £4+. On that basis the yield is only 5%! This is actually lower than many corporate bonds available in the market as well as sovereign securities. The fact that the yield 'looks' high currently is because of the UNFAIR low market valuation of the oil sector in general. Given the current macro conditions AND sentiment regarding this sector. This will innevitbly change in the future, I'd like to believe! Given the fact that the commodity is finite, but the demand on it is indefinite!

Best Regards ValueS

What does that matter for GKP, if the price is fixed to them as ($16-2)/bbl? There should be no correlation anymore between Brent and GKP (and other IOCs in Kurdistan) if what they get is fixed by SOMO. We must wait to see what they will get for the volume of oil contributed.

Best Regards ValueS

It's red all-over! Only the S&P 500 VIX, the Russian MOEX index and the Indian Nifty 50 are up!

Thank you Orange guy, you are so brilliant 👏 and clever 😀! Not!

BP is down more than HBR! As I type.

Best Regards ValueS

The Energy Profit Levy (EPL) is 'supposed to be' a temporary measure, initially at 25% and is to end in 2025. But then it was raised to 38% end extended to 2030! May be after that things will be OK?

But then again, Income Tax was 'supposed to be' a temporary legislation .....

Best Regards ValueS

Why sell up NS assets? Wouldn't reducing capex there to near £0, while continuing to milk it for as long as possible be a better idea? Particularly if that is combined with as much other cost reduction measures as they can get away with.

Just wondering!🤔

Meanwhile, here at HBR, the selling continues! By 12:15, 274 k shares sold versus 204 k shares bought. Assuming the buyback is responsible for 160 k of the buys, then 6.22 shares were sold for every share bought by the rest of the world. Some holders, sold @ £2, despite the 10% yield from dividends alone!

Best Regards ValueS

There were 2 massive trades (most likely sells) around 10 a.m.:

10:00:57 207 1,496,652 off-book XOFF

09:59:49 207 1,496,652 off-book XOFF

Since then the SP started drifting down from 207 to nearly 202!

The selling is relentless!

Best Regards ValueS

Barring catastrophe, I'll take a yeild of 9.7% anytime! Safe in the knowledge that all my capital will be recovered within 11 years. The shares will be a freehold, whatever they might be worth!

Best Regards ValueS