Member Info for ValueS

Yes! The day I've been waiting for. If just 50% of the dividend is reinvented by the sane holders will by more shares than the whole buyback programme can possibly. And in much shorter time. Nice to watch the first two hours of trading today, and see the holders of more than 200k shares sell below 212 and lose. Hopefully, never to come back forever!

Best Regards ValueS

In the past hour (ie. Since 14:30), there was just enough buying pressure to match the selling pressure and look how the SP took off! It is now trading @ 213 (from below 210). All those millions of shares that were sold below 212 since Friday are now losing trades. Their holders must be feeling really sorry that they sold at such a low price and lost over 9% worth of yield on top. May they never come back again 🙏.

Best Regards ValueS

According to this website, 453 k shares were sold versus 214k shares bought by 11:45. I estimate (or at least hope so) the buybacks to be at least 104 k shares. So, the rest of the world sold 4.118 shares versus 1 share bought! The selling goes on unabated...

Best Regards ValueS

33 weeks + 5 days

From the buyback RNS:

"The purpose of the programme is to reduce the Company's share capital and all ordinary shares purchased as part of this programme will be cancelled. The programme is expected to commence on 8 August 2025 and will end no later than 31 March 2026. Harbour has entered into an irrevocable, non-discretionary agreement with Merrill Lynch International to execute the programme on its behalf. "

It is up to Merrill Lynch how to go about executing the programme. Of course, within certain guidelines pre-agreed upon with HBR.

There are 236 days between 08/08/2025 and 31/03/2026, or 33 weeks + 6 days. After accounting for Bank Holidays, I think there are 164 'active' sessions within this period. If the funds are to be distributed 'equally ' between these sessions is $100m/164 = $609,756.1 ~ £451,337. The ongoing average over the past 31 sessions is £630526.16 which is far higher than the above. I suspect Merrill Lynch 'thinks' that the SP is going higher in later months, and is currently buying more than it should in order to minimise VWAP.

Best Regards ValueS

Yes @PUTUP, I did assume 40% recovery rate after 10% royalty.

Great!

The important bit here is that IOCs will receive their entitlement in crude oil! The question for me remains whether that'll be according to the PSC we know? If so, then GKP could get c.$15.20/bbl with Brent @ 66.24 as I type...

We've been here before over 11 years ago and the realised price for Shaikan crude as a stand alone product was c. (Brent-$23).

The problem now is that Shaikan crude would be part of a blend transported through the ITP I should imagine. As usual, the devil is in the details...

Best Regards ValueS

NAV_Mike,

The only LSE rule I remember is that the volume should not be greater than 25% of the total volume in that particular session. This is higher than what HBR is currently doing.

Best Regards ValueS

Yes, the selling is relentless. On the weekly chart this is the fourth consecutive red candle! The last time this happened was between Oct-Nov 2023, almost 2 years ago! Let's hope for a nice green one next week from dividend reinvestment. The only positive spin is that the lower the price gets the larger the buying pressure becomes.... hopefully!

Best Regards ValueS

Sellers abound! Yesterday, after HBR buys stripped out, there were 6 shares sold for every 1 bought by the rest of the world! Also, the US $ has weakened further over the past few days, making the yield smaller for HBR and US stock cheaper for UK holders. Hopefully the next update will be positive.

Best Regards ValueS

It has, so far, recovered more than 60% of today's drop. I should be very grateful to the sellers for giving me the opportunity to buy some more. My average price now stands at 222.53 inclusive of all costs. That is a yield of 8.78% I'm happy with that. The less shares in circulation the buyback achieve the more secure that yield will be. Any other gains would be a bonus.

Best Regards ValueS

JaskaJ, good points there regarding the FTSE100 inclusion and the buying pressure from dividend payments in the very short term. I bought lots on the 8th of September @ an average price 223p, but I'm still thinking of buying more if it dips below 220 before the 24th. There was a chance 2 days ago but couldn't catch as it lasted just few minutes! It looks like there could be another one today, maybe...

Best Regards ValueS

0.9878 p/dhare

Yes, some large holders may not like to convert the return of capital via buyback to cash rather than an enlarged % of HBR which comes as a consequence of the buyback! By this morning's RNS 6,241,176 shares bought back at a cost of £14,225,310.46 representing a return of 98.78 p/share held prior to the buyback.

PS. I never said anything about the size of the holders, whether buyers or sellers.

Best Regards ValueS

Too many weak holders willing to sell. Probably a lot of them bought earlier this year during April, now they want to take profit, together with the dividends. If it wasn't for the buyback, the SP could've gone much lower, I think. Now the Summer is over.

Best Regards ValueS

19p per share

IMO, for shareholders, paying back dept is more important than buying back shares. However, if equity cost is higher than bond cost, then it makes sense to do buyback. Currently, HBR pays c.17p of dividend per share but I don't know (not bothered to check more accurately) what the overall interest rate for HBR debt.

Best regards ValueS

What a day, what a day. I literally filled my boots! Some as a long term hold, but the rest for short term trading, mainly to gain free shares. Fingers crossed 🤞

Russia lost c. 1.1 mbopd (17% of its exports) processing capacity because of recent drone attacks. This account for around 1/2 of all OPEC quota increases so far and may explain price resilience this month, which is historically one of the worst months for oil prices.

Wow! After just 8 years of 'curtailed' and sometimes suspended production?

What happened to the plans of producing 100+ kbopd?

There is no need to ask the butler what his master is up to.

A man went home, and his wife presented him his vegetarian dinner, so he asked: where is meat we bought?

So sorry, I left at the worktop when the phone rang. The cat came and ate it! She replied.

The man looked for the cat and found it as frail and empty as it ever was. So, he asked the wife: If this is the cat where is the meat? If this is the meat where is the cat?

Best Regards ValueS