Member Info for ValueS

Well, if it was true, it is not worth doing now, given the yield is at 9.7 from dividends alone!

By 13:30 1236 k shares were sold versus 392 k bought. Assuming the buyback is responsible for 1/2 the buys, then 6.3 shares were sold for every 1 bought. There is a big seller out there and it is not BASF.

Best Regards ValueS

Not at all NSS.

I'll join you and be patient! Meanwhile, I shall enjoy the divis 🫠

Https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

"Up and to the right for a very long time from right here"

I should certainly hope so. September and October are historically the worst months for energy companies. They are neither in the Summer when the driving season is in full swing, nor in the Winter when demand for heating is highest.

Best Regards ValueS

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-poised-raise-oil-output-further-sources-say-2025-10-05/

NSS,

It doesn't matter at what price they sell the shares made available by the buyback, so long as it is equal to or higher than VWAP and is exactly proprtional to the buyback. By selling into the buyback, they are effectively converting it into a dividend payment. They are giving up a higher % holding in HBR, which is automatically 'created' by the buyback for cash. Obviously, if they sell lower than VWAP, they'll lose some of the cash returned.

The other way is also possible! Using dividend cash payment to buy more shares, converts the dividend cash to a bigger % holding of HBR for that particular holder. Or in other words, converting the dividend into a buyback.

Best Regards ValueS

Well, that is why buybacks, just like dividends, are classed as "shareholder returns". In the case of dividends, shareholders get cash. In the case of buybacks, the company uses the cash to buy shares on their behalf. The shareholders don't see those shares, but the shares they already hold get 'bigger' in size as the total number of outstanding shares get 'smaller'.

Best Regards ValueS

If the buyback completes with a VWAP = 219 p and an average GBP/USD = 1.35, then the total number of shares bought back would be = 33,823,778. For BASF to maintain their stake at 46.5%, they would have to sell 15,788,055. They will end up holding 653,925,972 shares. Fair enough!

Best Regards ValueS

BASF were hold 669,714,027 HBR shares (46.5% of shares in circulation) as payment for wintershall Dea as well as cash and taking their dept. Despite the high yield, they want to sell their stake, gradually within "few years" as their CFO stated! Let's assume he meant 4 years, then that is about 1000 sessions (250 sessions per year). If that is so, then they'd have to sell 669, 714 shares EVERY session (on average). With such a seller on the trading arena, the absurdity continues...

Best Regards ValueS

With purchases like these + the ongoing buyback, the return to £2 is unlikely!

29-Sep-25 09:11:46 212.6797 45,379 Buy* 212.20 212.80

29-Sep-25 09:09:56 212.697 35,224 Buy* 212.20 212.80

Best Regards ValueS

", does not mean much!"

should read:

, talking about "earnings" does not mean much!

In a resource company, especially an oil company, does not mean much! It is FCF the regularly used parameter to measure the strength of the company and its ability to return capital to its shareholders, repay dept, invest more ...etc. In the end, it is those "earnings" That enables the company to return double the capital (R factor = 2) slowly over the years. And beyond that the "earnings" continue to flow! Usually nearer the end of the contract.

Best Regards ValueS

Thanks, Sekforde. I was only referring to the last 2 payments of 13.19 US cents. I did not want to make any futuristic estimation. I know HBR has increased its dividend for the last 3 years according to investing.com.

Best Regards ValueS

The last 2 dividend payments add up to $0.2638, the current GBP/USD = 1.3362. So, the annual dividend = 19.74255 pence. The current asking price for an HBR share = £2.132. If you buy now, the yield would be 9.2%.

I hope that helps.

Best Regards ValueS

Yes, Friday the 26th, which is double 13!😵‍💫

Yes, 'graduly' and optimally over the next 'few' years. And I'd like to belive they are doing already!

Best Regards ValueS

Https://www.basf.com/global/en/media/news-releases/2024/09/p-24-273

The CFO of BASF himself said that they will be exiting HBR, see the last paragraph of what he said.

Best Regards ValueS

"And Harbour's turnover is closer to $11bn."

With production rate of 488 kboepd and increasing, they ought to be!

With regard to the removal of (the large) BASF stake,

BASF are doing that by themselves since the agreement was approved and completed. How much of that stake is left? I wonder. The ongoing buyback is certainly helping them at a rate of at least 0.7% per month for the duration of the buyback. And it seems to me that BASF is much obliged and is exiting HBR at an even quicker rate.

Best Regards ValueS

Sorry for the typos...

by buy

possibly possibly do