REMINDER: Our user survey closes on Friday, please submit your responses here.
Today's jump in oil prices is due to China according to reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-2023-crude-oil-imports-hit-record-fuel-demand-recovers-2024-01-12/
Still a red day for GKP!!
Best Regards ValueS
"Does anyone have any figures for the % of net profit/Rev of the Kurdistan contracts Vs the % of net profit from the Iraq contracts?"
There is no 'fixed' % in the "Iraq contracts", but there is 'fixed' amount of $/bbl the IOC gets from its production, and that amount varies considerably from contract to contract. Given that it is fixed regardless of poo, the % varies inversely to poo. A seperate mechanism is made for Cost Recovery.
As far as Shaikan PSC with MNR goes, GKP gets 36% of gross sales as mentioned in the RNS, 80% of which is from Cost Recovery stream and the remaining 20% is from the Profit Oil stream.
For example, if production = 30 kbopd and the average realised price = $30 in a 30 days month, then :
Gkp payment = 0.36*30^3/1000 = $9.72 m.
And it comes from 2 streams:
Cost Recovery stream = $7.776 m (28.8% of sales)
Profit Oil stream = $1.944 m (7.2% of sales)
Unlike what you called "Iraq contracts", the actual amount is proportional to poo.
Best Regards ValueS
I don't think its about the re-opeopening of the pipeline, if it is, we'll be in the 140s at least! Its about Brent turning bullish again, higher Brent means larger local sales volumes at better prices. This is just a guess, I could be wrong.
After receiving c. 132p per share worth of dividends, I can claim that I managed to offset all my losses against Gkp itself. The average price of my Gkp holding after restructuring and 100:1 consolidation completed was 172.xx p as I applied for the maximum oo shares and got 22 oo shares for each share held pre-restructuring.
Best Regards ValueS
Possibly a new or existing institutional investor countering the shorts. I noticed several consecutive (usually 5 of them) 10k share buys over the past few days. This can't be by individual retail buyer(s), unless the individual is very wealthy.
Best regards ValueS
I did think the FGI has a political interest in keeping the KRG under severe pressure to limit the region's autonomy as much as possible. They also need to abide by OPEC production quota, so keeping Kurdish production down is quite convenient way to do it. Words like 'brothers' and 'partners' are just for diplomacy.
Https://youtu.be/syoN4Siomrw?si=vTSle5foXgyhhxd5
Interesting! Was Iraq the most volatile producer, but not anymore?
Currently (while the R factor between 1&2, realised average price = $30) Gkp gets a net of $10.8 a barrel (36% - rule of thump). However, that actually consists of 2 parts:
1 - 80% ( = $8.64 a barrel ) is cost recovery, or so called cost oil, no medals for that just our own money back .
2 - 20% ( = $2.16 a barrel ) is the so called profit oil, from which comes our profit after accounting for non-recoverable corporate costs.
Best Regards ValueS
"GKP can't invoice for Cost Recovery beyond the balance remaining after invoicing."
Thanks PUTUP. I'd like to dispute that but I don't know how except to say that it would be incredibly vicious (if not damn hostile) if GKP is prevented from invoicing for yet unpaid costs even if said costs had been invoiced (but still not paid) before.
Best Regards ValueS