Member Info for ValueS

Thank you @Yawksha and @Gargo for the very useful feedback to get my list corrected. Here is the updated list:

Nortrust Nominees ------------- 44,369,434 --15.0537%

3G Capital Management ------ 29,935,141 -- 10.1564%

Azvalor Asset Management -- 29,777,235 -- 10.1028%

Converium Capital M F LP ---- 17,964,549 -- 6.0950%

JPMorgan Asset M H Inc. ----- 16,120,346 -- 5.4693%

Clearbridge Investment ------- 14,871,142 -- 5.0455%

Lombard Odier AM Ltd --------- 14,638,923 -- 4.9667%

SFM UK Management LLP ----- 11,106,000 -- 3.7680%

Australian Retirement T Ltd ---- 8,985,271 -- 3.0485%

IG Markets Limited ---------------- 8,905,549 -- 3.0215%

Platinum Investment Ltd -------- 7,514,516 -- 2.5495%

TOTALS ============== 204,188,106 == 69.2769421%

Best Regards ValueS

Thanks for the correction YorkShah (see what I did there 🤭) I do not know how I missed that one! The 1st RNS!

There is no way I could find out the price paid as institutions keep that for themselves! And as far as I know the number of shares listed is the total investment according to the latest RNS update.

Best Regards ValueS

Managed to compile a list of major FOXT shareholders from RNSs back to c. 2.5 years, percentage holdings of each calculated according to latest known number of shares (294,741,800):

Name of Institution ------- shares held -- %

Nortrust Nominees 44,369,434 15.0537%

Aberforth Partners LLP 39,297,480 13.3328%

3G Capital Management 29,935,141 10.1564%

Azvalor Asset Mngmnt 29,777,235 10.1028%

JPMorgan AMH Inc. 16,120,346 5.4693%

Converium Capital M F 15,009,222 5.0923%

Clearbridge Investment 14,871,142 5.0455%

Lombard Odier Limitd. 14,638,923 4.9667%

SFM UK Mngemnt LLP 11,106,000 3.7680%

Australian Retirement 8,985,271 3.0485%

IG Markets Limited 8,905,549 3.0215%

Platinum Invstmnt Ltd 7,514,516 2.5495%

TOTALS ------------------- 240,530,259 -- 81.6071%

I hope that helps, but more importantly correct and accurate!

Best Regards ValueS

The trouble is they are mostly of 0 size! So, now I developped a 'conspiracy theory'🙃 It is the MMs doing it! They generate large number of them so that the 'real' trades get scrolled off the page and people can't figure out what they are doing! 😂

Wow 237.2

Nice one HBR 🥰... but will it last 🫣

"Are we possibly having to deal with some of the 30% LLOG shares that werent locked in, hitting the market?"

According to LSE figures (however much could be trusted) up to now c. 640,000 shares were sold and c. 1,400,000 bought! So, nothing to do with the sell/buy balance, just the MMs being ****holes.

At the end of the buyback, the reported number of voting rights was reduced to 1,404,868,595 shares. If BASF was holding 46.5% at that point (not before the buyback), then they should have been holding 653,263,897 shares. However, we now learn that they actually hold 656,157,041 shares. That is 2,893,144 shares more than expected! Which is 46.706% rather than 46.5%! After the LLOG deal this is diluted to 41.536% rather than the expected 41% 😊. Nice one BASF. Wish you all the best with your continued investment in HBR. You will not regret it!

Best Regards ValueS

@dan22 , unfortunately ( or fortunately) in the bussiness world, distributions are important to attract investors. Do you think BASF, L1 and LLOG would have accepted a substantial amount of HBR equity as part payment for the assets HBR bought from them if there were no distributions associated with said equity? I for one do not think so!

Best Regards ValueS

I just don't understand the point of buybacks when you've got debt"

According to that argument there is no point paying dividend either! Stop all distributions if there is debt to pay 🤑

Steep up-hills then water-falls with flat patches in-between! Inspiring for natural scenery painters! 😀

Anyone knows the Duke of York?

Can't really make sense of it anymore.

Best Regards ValueS

"U.S. and Isreal want anything but peace."

The orange guy's "Bored of Peace" may have received a new set of instructions from his billionair sponsors?

@NewKOTB,

I don't think including those 3 transactiond would improve the FCF, but quite the opposite! Yes, there is the $400m coming from the first 2, but the LLOG deal means there is $700m leaving. I don't see the extra production from both Waldorf and LLOG aquisitions (v. 54 kboepd) could add much, given the extra cost of $2 B more dept and the lower price of oil expected.

TBH, I managed to sell most of my holdins at above 217p, with some profit. I will consider coming back if a better safety margin is realised given the upcoming 11% dilution from by the LLOG deal (c. 193 p?) as well as the planned "distributions policy move" to be detailed on 05 March.

Today's update is a bit 'scary' for my liking! Those 3 trandactions were quite a surprise! Obviously, the huge positive effects will show 2027 onwards, meanwhile I'd be looking for a better re-entry in 2026 if it comes.

Best Regards ValueS

2025 performance is better than guidance, but 2026 guidance is underwhelming. I think is mainly because of lower commodity prices and higher capex as HBR is becoming involved in many, many projects

Best Regards ValueS

"The IEA now expects global oil demand to rise by 930,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, up from the 860,000 bpd growth forecast in its previous report."

Source: investing.com

This is contrary to many American bankers who insisted that only 700 kbopd growth for 2026, and that oil prices would fall to $55/bbl!

PS, American oil reserves are now less than that of Libya, c. 40-45 B barrels, and they are producing more than 5B barrels a year! How many years required before all reserves are exhausted? Err.. hang on I lost my calculator...mmm I can use my fingers!

Best Regards ValueS

Amazing how quickly HBR has turned around. Just last Thursday it was trading @ 183p, it is now @ 210p! Arise of 14.75% in only 4 sessions. Y11 seems to have failed to re-enter @ 183p with a massive 100k shares+, only to boast about selling them @£2 few days later and then cry for not waiting for the £2.10!

He had done all the maths he claimed! And not bothered about repeating his fancy work. What a loser!

"a loss against VWAP paid of circa 15p a share or around £5.3m"

Yes, but that is a dynamic parameter, it goes up and down as the SP goes down or up! Who knows, we could be looking at a profit of more than £35,254,163 if the SP rockets to £3.12 or more in the not very distant future.

All views are welcome of course. But each to his own.

Best Regards ValueS

Total number of shares bought back = 35,254,163

Cost = £74,688,421.85 ($100 m), or GBP/USD = 1.3389

Thus, VWAP = £2.1186 per share

Given that HBR sold 174,855,744 shares to Llog @£2.15 per share. A profit's been made from this BB!

Profit = 35,254,163×(£2.15 - £2.1186) = £1,108,028.60.

I'd be very pleased if HBR initiates another BB, given the current price level.

Best Regards ValueS

"It could easily happen. Happy days."

It could easily happen in Q2 this year after the 2 transactions declared before the Llog merger are completed. HBR gets $215m from Indonisia, pays $170 m to purchase Waldorf, whereby it gets c. $900 m worth of tax losses that can be used to offset future tax liablilities + $350 m cash Waldorf can't touch. As well as all the created FCF up to that point. The total could be somewhere between $1.4 - $2 B!

Best Regards ValueS

Trump said in a social media post that Venezuela will turn over between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., and that Washington will sell the oil at market price.

“This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States,” Trump said in a statement.

The development comes just days after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Trump had then said that the U.S. was assuming control of Venezuela and that Washington intended to open up the country’s oil industry.

Oil had initially fallen after Maduro’s capture, as markets feared that a lifting in U.S. sanctions against Venezuela will release vast amounts of crude back into the market.

Trump’s actions so far indicate that this scenario appears likely.

But analysts warned that Venezuela’s reopening may take longer than expected due to potential political instability and due to the country’s aging energy infrastructure impeding production.

Data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler suggested that Venezuela’s oil production was unlikely to rise in the near-term due to limited storage capacity in the country.

SHEL -2%, BP -2.5%, HBR -2.7%