Member Info for ValueS

Https://youtu.be/dl-sc91fR8Q?si=3_U6xgKHMfsEo1uP

Looks like an under water attack! Was that a torpedo, a mine or a sub-surface drone?

I bought!

Soon, the backwardation will turn into contango if the SOH remains shutterred for one more month! Which, IMO, it will! At least the short term futures (up to 6 months?). If there is more structural damage the long term futures too.

Best Regards ValueS

Wow 🤩. I am fascinated!

I think 🤔 it is going to fascinating to find out how far these BlackRock appointed Zayo Nest.le MMs can move the goal posts! 😉🤭

Even more ridiculeous now, Brent up $2+ and HBR down 1p. Now on offer at 291.2

"who else is keeping the price down?"

The market makers. They can play with the SETS parameters.

This is getting ridiculeous, Brent at $107+ and HBR is on offer at 292.2

"World Bank sees 24% surge in energy prices in 2026"

https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/world-bank-sees-24-surge-in-energy-prices-in-2026-4634064

IMO, UAE and the whole of OPEC don't matter anymore! The damage is done!

Best Regards ValueS

Why the sudden drop. Anyone knows?

@Tokugawa , yes, geopolitics very important factor for both deals.

Best Regards ValueS

"US$6.7/bbl of ARC's 2p reserves."

Sorry, I have to correct that to account for ARC dept. It should read: US$8 instead.

"Arc reports ~2Bboe of 2P reserves, it's mostly gas"

IMO, that is why Shell bought Arc resources with c. 25% premium, they are concentrating on gas! And they want to bring it to Europe to make sure they don't have to buy Russian. With their deep pockets and vast HR, Shell can execute an LNG project quickly.

PS. Shell only paid US$6.7/bbl of ARC's 2p reserves. Compare that to HBR paying over US $11 for LLOG reserves.

Best Regards ValueS

You also need to use US$, not CA$

Would be wonderful if there is a large gap up on Monaday!😄

Have a good W/E everyone

Why everybody is assuming the dividend to be limited to $300 m? That so called 'base dividend' was estimated by the company when the estimated FCF was c. $600 m. Things have changed dramatically since then. Yes the BOD prioritised BB and dept reduction, but that does not mean HBR would not increase on the 'base dividend' by adding a 'special dividend' if the SP is too high for an accretive BB! All in IMO.

Best Regards ValueS

"10% of outstanding shares will have to be repurchased, so @150m shares."

I'd be happy with 3-4% (47.4 m - 63.2 m shares) even if the VWAP = £3 or a little bit more. That is $192 m-$256 m for buybacks. The more the marrier! It will increase the dividend yield in the future. Permanently!

Best Regards ValueS

Sales down by a whapping 35% compared to Q1 2025, only £0.2 m higher compared to Q1 2024 after all the acquisitions and cost savings measures continue! Buybacks feel like trying to empty a swimming pool with a teaspoon! What is there to like 🙃

Best Regards ValueS

"I get the feeling something is happening."

Just the backwardation been cut by c. 50% as switching of the 3 months contracts to July continues. Not much else really! For HBR, trading volumes relatively low and c. 3 shares sold for every one bought says it all. But with the SOH shut, with no sign of resolution, future changes could be dramatic and sudden! IMO.

Best Regards ValueS

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Crude-Oil-Oil-Product-Inventories-Come-Crashing-Down.html