Member Info for ValueS

Shell down by 77.5 p ~ 2.87%

BP. down by 15.55 p ~ 3.56%

HBR down by 3.14 p ~ 1.52 %

Good to see the resistance @ 202.4 holding up well to the second lowest Brent prices seen so far in 2025.

@Neversellshell22, it is known that L1 received $75 m worth of dividend this year for their holding of non-voting shares? as part of the WD deal from what I can gather. In addition they are also entitled to the normal dividend for their substantial holdings of normal voting shares!

Nice work if you can get it!

I don't really know what the exact terms are, as I did not bother too much about this matter. But this is my understanding of it.

Best Regards ValueS

Well done @Stupmy !👍

"I make it 4.02164%"

You did not spot the spelling error of betwwen? Apparently!🙈

There was 6 weeks delay betwwen threshold crossing and reporting it! According to my calculation, letterone now holds 4.21641% rather than the 4.00015% reported due to the buyback effect during those 6 weeks!

Best Regards ValueS

"Completion is expected to occur during the second quarter of 2026 and is subject to, among others, customary regulatory approvals and full and final settlement of all creditor claims against Waldorf's subsidiaries."

Nothing is firm yet, and that goes for the Indonesian assets sale too. Hence, the SP is still in no man's land. And the outlook for Brent is still very much bearish. But it is always a bargain buying from a distressed seller, or selling to an inthsiastic buyer!

May we have a happy 2026 indeed.

Best Regards ValueS

"you should be concerned about such unclear statements - "

I am very concerned @BroadfordBay, and I've expressed my concerns well before today's update. I've also diversified to HBR which currently yeilds more or less like GKP but has a hugely diversified portfolio of assets spanning 4 continents! Rather than the 1 trick pony, but I'm stiil holding a significant amount with GKP in the hope that the truth about Shaikhan will finally be allowed to come out!

Best Regards ValueS

"So full export allocation..."

But, what is the 'export allocation'?

From the: "Gross average production of c.41,400 bopd in 2025 year to date (as at 8 December 2025), in line with tightened 2025 annual guidance of 40,000 - 42,000 bopd"

There are 23 days left in 2025, i.e 342 days @ 41.4 kbopd = 14.1588 million barrels of oil produced up to the reported date. They only need to produce 19,183 bopd for the remaining 23 days to stay just above the minimum of the production guidance! I noticed the did not raise that minimum to 41,000 bopd instead of 40,000 bopd! What does that imply? Also, the realised price is just $30/bbl, just $1-3/bbl above the local sales price, with a massive difference of being paid in advance not 30 days later!

Fishy indeed

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the SP over £3 again, but the company is hiding more and more things from us since JH came.

Best Regards ValueS

Summary

Harbour Energy (LSE:HBR) sits at 209.0 on the daily chart, pressed between a crumbling support at 202.4 and stubborn resistance at 218.0. Neither bulls nor bears have a risk/reward edge right now—traders are caught in a classic no-man’s land where failed signals and choppy action punish impatience.

Key Battleground: 202.4–218.0

Immediate support: 202.4 (double bottom zone) and 207.8 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) are the lifelines for bulls. A close below 202.4 means the downtrend resumes with force.

Resistance cluster: 215.2 (20-day moving average), 218.0 (50-day MA & prior swing highs) are firm barriers. Without a close above 218.0, any bounce is suspect.

Trend: Short and medium-term trends are bearish—SuperTrend and moving averages agree.

Why No Trade? Risk/Reward Reality Check

Short setups: All proposed short entries (below 208 or on rejection at 215–221) offer risk/reward ratios under 1.5—simply not worth it.

Long setups: Counter-trend longs from current levels also fail the risk/reward test, and the trend is clearly against them.

No-Trade Zone: 202.4–218.0 is a “chop zone”—any position here risks getting whipsawed without a clear technical edge.

What To Watch Next

Decisive daily close above 218.0: Would complete the double bottom and tempt bulls for a run to 226.6+.

Breakdown below 202.4: Bearish confirmation, opens path to October lows in the 188–193 area.

Volume and MACD: Watch for a volume spike or MACD crossover to confirm direction—current bounces lack conviction.

Chart Lesson: Patience > Prediction

A failed bullish engulfing, negative momentum, and tight, whippy ranges all scream “wait for confirmation.” The best traders know: sometimes the optimal play is not to play until the odds shift.

Best Regards ValueS

They can pause/restart the programme without informing the market. May be something to do with the sale of the Natuna sea and Tuna sea assets in Indonesia? I can't see much effect from that, as it is for only $215m (11.4 p/share) and is subject to regulatory agreement.

Best Regards ValueS

I checked HBR website, there was no buyback RNS

"The final bit got stuck when the KRG stopped paying i.e. in the arrears."

Well that is an outright violation of the PSC. And if no interest paid together with the recovery of those arrears, according to thr PSC, then 'theft' is also committed.

I think there are 'hidden' earnings that are achieved via a 'loop' within the 'cost oil' route! When say $1 of investor money invested in Shaikan and later recovered, then re-invested and recovered again, then that 2nd recovery should count as earning (minus associated non-recoverable costs)!

Any one counted for that?

Best Regards ValueS

Yes! And the most value accretive session so far was the 17th of OCT 2025. 420,000 shares were bought @ £1.9143.

Sorry, the 23,714 shares were reported but not on XLON. Disregard my comment regarding this

"will probably drop later."

With Brent going over $63 despite a build in inventories as the hopes of peace fades away, HBR SP should go up not down!🤞

With regards to buyback, I noticed an increase of 23,714 in the number of shares bought back not reported, when combined with the 6,567 decrease many sessions ago, the difference is 17, 147 shares. Can't really explain it, but it is worth noting that the first 3 sessions of the buyback happenned before x-div. The number of these shares is 811,053 and qualify for a dividend payment of $106,977.89. I am wondering whether HBR is using this money to buyback even more shares (seperately from the broker) to straighten their account?

Best Regards ValueS

Thanks gents, can't wait for the December trading update.

I wonder how many barrels of that 188,221 bopd is actually Shaikan crude, given that Kurdistan used to export nearly double that prior to ITP closure. Should I consider GKP (& MOL) lucky to be exporting more than 25 kbopd?

Best Regards ValueS

@AA2020 ,

According to my chart, the average HBR daily volume is c. 2.81 m. The rules allows up to 25% of daily volume, which is c. 700,000 shares per session. In contrast, the average buyback so far (over 77 sessions) is 289,893 shares per session. That is just 41.4% of the allowed volume.

Best Regards ValueS

@bots, never mind. He's just multiplying everything by 10! The good thing is that his limit buy order is at 190 p not 19 p😅