Member Info for ValueS

And these are from HYR23 published in 31/08/2023

"53,682 bopd in March 2023, including five days in excess of 55,000 bopd, reflecting increasing production from SH-16 and the start-up of SH-17. "

"Following the completion of SH-18, we released our drilling rig and suspended well workover activity. "

Is the story of water contamination true? I wonder, we never had any such problems before, and Shaikan's been producing for only c. 11 years.

How the electric pumps are doing?

Still does not answer the questions about further contributions from SH-17 & SH-18.

"is only about 6%. "

Should read: 6.5%

GKP production rate exceeded 40 kbopd in 2015 when there was only 12 producing wells, one of which was having some problems! and no electrical pumps. Today, we have 18 producing wells since 2023. The natural decline is only about 6%. This would make the production rate to 46.4 kbopd from the high point reported in MAR23, without any further contribution(s) from SH-18 (and SH-17).

Best Regards ValueS

There is no logic in price finding software except that of supply and demand. If dividend traders decided to sell at this point after having booked the dividend, then obviously supply would exceed demand.

What is the story of SH-18? Apart from half a line mentioned in HY23 results about its completion, then it was completely "forgotten"! Or has it been considered as the private property os some privileged person from the ruling family?

I remember in the past, GKP was far more transparent than nowadays, to the point of reporting on the performance of each well drilled!

I also remember that there were 5 days in MAR23 when production "exceeded" 55 kbopd after the addition of SH-16 and startup of SH-17 just prior to export suspension.

What was the production rate "supposed to be" after completing the connection of SH-17 and the forgotten SH-18?

SP behaviour shows that the privileged knew about production restart while the not so lucky did not have clue!

Personally, I'd be happy with $16/bbl monthly payments for Shaikan crude if they get paid promptly on time. GKP would get 80% = $12.80 net, which is 28% higher than local sales of c. $10 at best net to GKP.

Best Regards ValueS

"so didn't understand the geography stream ValueS was referencing. Maybe I'm missing something."

When the IT first built, there was no part of it running through Kurdistan. From memory, the oil produced in Kirkuk was first connected to the Beiji refinery complex, then goes up North towards Mosul then towards Fishkhabour. In its way several small oilfields such as the Qayarah and Najmah oilfields feed it. Furthermore, the Beiji complex is also connected to the Haditha oil hub, where the Strategic Pipeline bringing oil from Iraq's Southern fields terminates. I hope that helps.

Best Regards ValueS

I think the Turkish official is now hinting that Turkey wants to get to the old days when this pipeline was potentially capable of transporting 2 mbopd. Thus he was wants to revive the Kirkuk-Mosul-Fishkhabour bit of the pipeline, rather than just using the kirkuk-Erbil-Fishkhabpour bit. But can the ICG trust Turkey again? I very much doubt it.

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"The official said the pipeline had the potential to become a "highly active and strategic pipeline for the region", and added Turkey had invested heavily in its maintenance, while repeatedly noting its importance for regional projects like the Development Road - a planned trade route involving Turkey and Iraq."

"Weak prospect if days become weeks"

Thank goodness I am out after more than 11 years of involvement. If this drags on, the consequences may be more serious than the ISIS attacks. Let us hope and pray that it gets resolved quickly and peacefully.

Best Regards ValueS

I think those drone attacks were the responce. Some politicians rejected US interference in IRAQ's internal affairs!

Well, I took a 50: 50 stance right from the start despite the strength of the rumours this time round. But, as it turned out, I sold 50% of my holdings far too early! However, by yesterday and further today I gave up hope on getting to £2 anytime soon and sold the rest. Let's see how this is going to play out in the coming days. I'll be glad if I could buyback below 165. May be in the 150s to make my own dividend! 🫠

Best Regards ValueS

Yes, I understood that when I googled the number u provided, but managed to find a source using a different search method. Thanks anyway.

Best Regards ValueS

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-considers-raising-oil-output-by-550000-bpd-august-sources-say-2025-07-05/

We should (at least) get to our £2 per share set in April, before any rumours of any agreement. The market makers dropped the SP by ~ 25%, apparently for the fall in Brent. But now Brent has fully recovered + the on-going talk of finally reaching agreement. Only half way through so far!

Best Regards ValueS

"The energy advisor at the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan's media office, Bahjat Ahmed"

Who is this Bahjat Ahmed? He is not even a member of the ruling KDP, and probably not in the opposing PUK either! Besides, the final decision is in the hands of Turkey's Erdoğan who actually controls the valve. It is not in Baghdad or Erbil. Not even in Washington or Paris or anywhere else. Let's cross our fingers and see what happens.

Best Regards ValueS

But we still don't know whether contract sanctity will be maintained. On that basis, I took the opportunity to reduce! May be that is wrong, it is 50: 50 for me! Half held, half sold.

Best Regards ValueS

Cash balance as at 19/03/2025 was $115 m.

Cash balance as at 18/06/2025 is $100 m. The dividend paid out within this period = $25 m. This gives a net Cash inflow of $10 m. So, monthly net cash inflow = 3.33 m, whereever it might be coming from. End of!

Local oil price is still between $27 - $29/bbĺ, and is insensitive to Brent! Production is steady.

Market makers adjustment to GKP SP in April was wrong! Could we have our £2 per share back please!

Best Regards ValueS